Monday, May 20, 2002
VENEZUELA
Update: From Yahoo! News - AP, an update on the increasing economic and political problems of the government of President Hugo Chávez, which include: a big budget deficit, a declining economy (according to private economists), and political protest.
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US AND LATIN AMERICA
Congress muffs trade legislation: This week's Latin Business Chronicle reports on two major trade defeats in the U.S. Senate. These were:
* Continuing the Andean Trade Preferences Act (ATPA), which has given duty-free access to the United States market to Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, in part to help those countries create alternatives to coca production and drug trafficking. The Senate did not act to continue the pact. As a result it expired on May 16.
* Approving "fast-track" free-trade negotiating authority with an amendment that effectively nullifies the authority. The point of "fast-track" authority is to allow an administration to negotiate a trade treaty, which is then submitted to the Senate for a single up-or-down vote on the treaty in its entirety. The Senate bill allows the Senate to vote on free-trade treaties piecemeal. Not only does this defeat the purpose of "fast-track," it makes it unlikely that any country will negotiate seriously with U.S. trade representatives.
In the wake of these Senate decisions, the Latin Business Chronicle is almost certainly correct in saying,All in all, free traders in the Americas have little reason to celebrate these days.
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ARGENTINA
Bank withdrawl: Another foreign bank has refused to refinance its three Argentine subsidiaries, reports Bloomberg.com. The French company, Credit Agricole SA, has refused inject capital into the three Argentine banks it owns to replace money depositors are pulling out as fast as they can.Banco de la Nacion Argentina will assume control of Credit Agricole's Banco Bisel SA, Banco del Suquia SA and Banco de Entre Rios SA, Argentina's central bank said in a statement.
Chief Executive Officer Jean Laurent on March 19 said Credit Agricole may abandon its Argentine business, where it owned 70 percent of Banco Bisel, the country's 13th-largest lender with 2 billion pesos ($592 million) of assets and 1.1 billion pesos of deposits as of Dec. 31.
Banco Bisel is an important agricultural lender, through its 168 branches in the breadbasket provinces of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Santa Fe, its headquarters.Foreign banks, including Credit Agricole, Citigroup Inc. and Santander Central Hispano SA, have lost $8.5 billion in Argentina and are unwilling to put more money into the South American country. Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia became the first foreign bank on May 7 to say it planned to stop doing business in the country and unload its local unit. The Argentine public seems to believe that one of the world's primary responsibilities is to keep lending them money, which they steadfastly refuse to repay. The withdrawl of Credit Agricole reflects a growing consensus that Argentina is economically and politically irresponsible, that absolutely nothing except empty promises can be expected from the political class (with the full support of the populaution in this, if not much else), and that things are not going to get better any time soon. The current government, which is committed only to giving lip service to IMF demands, is unlikely to improve. Probably coming from the left, this government's successor will be officially committed to redistribution, though--joke's on them--by the time they actually achieve the power to redistribute wealth, there will be little private property left to redistribute. That will be when the real squawking starts. It will also be when real reform can begin, reform that creates institutions that are capable of protecting property and insisting that the government and people of Argentina live up to their promises. Until then, putting money into Argentina is throwing it away.
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Sunday, May 19, 2002
ARGENTINA
More bad news for Duhalde: Another poll containing bad news for President Edurado Duhalde appears in today's Pagina12/WEB. This poll shows that 56 per cent want immediate elections, up from 36 per cent in January. In addition, 90 per cent of these want elections for all offices, not just president.The data reflect a very clear upset in the last weeks: pessimism broke all records, negative opinions about Duhalde grew strongly, the impression grew that a hyperinflation could occur, and there is an increasing rejection of an agreement with the IMF. Los datos reflejan un vuelco muy nítido de las últimas semanas: el pesimismo bate todos los records, crecieron fuertemente las opiniones negativas sobre Duhalde, se incrementó la impresión de que puede haber un proceso hiperinflacionario y hay un extendido rechazo al acuerdo con el FMI. In these findings the poll is not significantly different than the poll taken by Gallup and published in La Nacion (see just below).
However, this poll examines what kind of results early elections might produce. The tentative answer (one very much pleasing to Pagina12) is for gains on the left.
Right now, the poll's leader is Elisa Carrió, a national assembly deputy from Chaco, and a leader of the Alternative for a Republic of Equals party (Alternativa por una Republica de Iguales). In second is Luis Zamora, deputy from the capital and member of the Self-Determination and Freedom Party (Autodeterminacion y Libertad) party, a socialist party. Also receiving support are Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, who served as president for about a week in December, before resigning and making way for Duhalde, and Carlos Reutemann (Partido Justicialista, or Peronist) a former Grand Prix driver and current governor of the province of Santa Fe.
Elisa Carrió shows surprising support. She has enormous potency in the interior of the country--21 per cent say that they would vote for her--although the questioning was concentrated in the big cities of the interior. In Greater Buenos Aires she also leads with 17 per cent and in the Capital she ties Zamora at 14 per cent. Luis Zamora is very strong in the Capital, he almost maintains his support in Greater Buenos Aires--12 per cent--and falls very strongly in the interior where he collects five percent. Elisa Carrió muestra un dato sorprendente. Tiene una enorme potencia en el interior del país--21 por ciento dice que la votaría-- aunque la encuesta se concentra en las grandes ciudades del interior. En el Gran Buenos Aires también encabeza las posiciones con el 17 por ciento y en la Capital empata con Zamora en 14 por ciento. Luis Zamora está muy fuerte en la Capital, casi mantiene su intención de voto en el Gran Buenos Aires--12 por ciento--y cae muy fuerte en el interior, donde recoge el 5 por ciento. The great bastion for Adolfo Rodríguez Saá is the interior--16 per cent--and he falls significantly in the Federal Capital and Greater Buenos Aires. - El gran bastión de Adolfo Rodríguez Saá está en el interior--16 por ciento--y baja mucho en Capital Federal y Gran Buenos Aires. Carlos Reutemann also is strong in the big cities of the interior--13 per cent--and falls, although less, in the Capital--seven per cent and Greater Buenos Aires, six per cent. Carlos Reutemann también está fuerte en las grandes ciudades del interior--13 por ciento--y baja, aunque menos, en Capital--7 por ciento--y el Gran Buenos Aires, 6 por ciento. It apears that the Justice Party (Peronist), if it does not suffer ruptures, is very much in the running to gain. Adding its supporters--one must recognize that this is a risky hypothesis--would arrive at 30 per cent. It is significant that without a doubt the key will be how the PJ arranges itself internally. The other fact is that the UCR will be set to disappear in the next election, if it does not make alliances. Se aprecia que el Partido Justicialismo, si no sufre rupturas, está muy en carrera para ganar. Sumando sus postulantes--hay que reconocer que es una hipótesis arriesgada--llegaría al 30 por ciento. Esto significa que sin dudas una clave será cómo el PJ arregla su interna. El otro dato es que la UCR tenderá a desaparecer en la próxima elección, si es que se presenta sin hacer alianzas. Concludes Pagina/12:"The Argentine population wants a large renovation--added (the polltaker Eduardo) Fidanza--from the intendencias and provincial legislatures to the high national offices. In this frame, one can announce an event without precedent: the debilitation of extreme bipartisanism. Until now, the PJ and the UCR were accustomed to totalling 90 per cent of the votes, now they do not add up to more than 35 per cent and a good part of this percentage appears in new figures. The impression is that the Argentines are opting, justly, for new people or indulging in a protest vote." "La población argentina quiere una amplia renovación--sintetiza Fidanza--desde las intendencias y las Legislaturas provinciales hasta los cargos más altos a nivel nacional. En ese marco, se puede anunciar un hecho sin precedentes: el debilitamiento extremo del bipartidismo. Hasta ahora, el PJ y la UCR solían sumar el 90 por ciento de los votos, ahora no suman más del 35 por ciento y buena parte de ese porcentaje surge de figuras nuevas. La impresión es que los argentinos optan, justamente, por figuras nuevas o se recluyen en el voto bronca." It should be noted that the poll, taken by Catterberg y Asociados, of 602 people, was confined to the six urban areas, the Federal Capital, Greater Buenos Aires, Gran Córdoba, Rosario, Gran Mendoza y Gran Tucumán.
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VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
Chávez with Farc? Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is opposed to adding Colombia's FARC communist guerilla army to the Eruopean Union's list of terrorist organizations, El Tiempo reports. Chávez delivered his opinion during a press conference in Madrid where he, along with Colombian president Andres Pastrana and several other Latin American Leaders, are attending a summit with European Union countries. Chávez said he believed listing the FARC woud not help the peace process.
Colombian officials would not comment immediately. "These things cannot be answered in the heat of the moment," said a spokesman ("Estas cosas no se pueden contestar en caliente", dijo un portavoz.).
There is some possibility Chávez's stance could still prevent the European Union from naming FARC a terrorist organization, despite the fact that Pastrana was promised the listing in meetings at the summit (see El Sur). Once the summit breaks up and Pastrana heads home, France and Sweden, the FARC's main apologists, may find it convenient to change their minds again. Disgusting, but it would not be surprising from these two.
It is important to note that there are constant reports of cooperation between Venezuelan army units and the FARC, as well as reports that FARC is using Venezuelan soil as a sanctuary, with the Chávez government's at least tacit permission. Chávez alwasy denies the charge.
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COLOMBIA
Poll: Uribe extends lead: In what will probably be the last poll taken before Colombia's May 26 election, Alvaro Uribe a former governor who promises to take a harder line against guerillas, has extended his lead slightly, according to a report in El Tiempo. According to the poll, Uribe is leading his nearest challenger 49.3 to 23.0. In second is Horacio Serpa, who led last fall. Íngrid Betancourt, who was kidnapped by the FARC guerillas earlier this year, and is still being held, has 1.4 per cent.
A second story in El Tiempo, indicates that it is mathematically possible for Uribe to win more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round. To be elected in Colombia, a candidate must receive more than 50 per cent. If not candidate does so in the first round, a second round between the two leaders is held. In any case, Uribe is strongly favored to win a second-round vote against any of his opponents.
A chart showing the candidates' standing since Septermber 2001 is here.
The poll also indicates that Colombians do not think things are going well in the country, as another story in El Tiempo shows.
April's results were noted in El Sur. March's results were also noted in El Sur.
With barely a week to go before the vote an Uribe win is likely, probably on the first vote. Stepped up guerilla activity subsequent to his election and innaguration in August would be likely, if it weren't for the fact that the guerillas are already in the middle of a big campaign. One change that is likely to follow Uribe's innauguration is stepped up pressure on the Colombian government from the international left. Uribe will make a tempting target for Sandalistas and so-called human rights organizations alike.
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ARGENTINA
Poll: A poll published in La Nacion Sunday contains nothing but bad news for nearly every institution in the country. Among the most important findings of the poll, which was conducted by Gallup, are:* Asked how their institutions are responding to the country's crisis, not one political institution received a positive response of more than 10 per cent.
* Only the church and media were viewed positively by more people than viewed them negatively.
* 46 per cent of those polled would prefer early elections, instead of permitting President Eduardo Duhalde serve out the term to which he was appointed at the end of last year, up from 35 per cent last month.
* 43 per cent want Duhalde to complete his term, down from 58 per cent last month.
* 74 per cent disapprove of Duhalde's performance in office. La Nacion provides detailed graphs, including:* What Argentines fear.
* Support levels for various institutions.
* How the public Views the situation For the poll, Gallup interviewed 1256 people age 17 and over, between May 10 and 15, in 27 separate localities.
About the only good news for Duhalde, to govenors and members of the national legislature is that everyone else is rated the same or worse.
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Saturday, May 18, 2002
COLOMBIA
EU to agree, finally: French President Jacque Chirac denied that France attempted to stop the listing of FARC as a terrorist group, says El Tiempo, in an article detailing Colombia's apparent success in getting the European Union to (finally) agree to such designation.Curiously, the president of France Jacques Chirac declared in Madrid that his country never opposed the inclusion of the FARC in the list of terrorist groups, a story that he attributed to "some false information." Chirac said he knew that "there had been an country that opposed that, but it was not France, that it is determined to reinforce, in all areas, the fight against terrorism." Curiosamente, el presidente de Francia Jacques Chirac declaró en Madrid que su país nunca se opuso a la inclusión las Farc en la lista de grupos terroristas, versión que atribuyó a "una información falsa." Chirac dijo saber que "hubo un país que se opuso, pero no fue Francia, que está determinada a reforzar, en todos los dominios, la lucha contra el terrorismo." Curious indeed. Nevertheless, it does appear that the EU is ready, a week after the massacre at Bojayá (Chocó), in which more than 100 were killed by the FARC as they sought shelter in a church, to admit the truth--FARC is a terrorist organization.Pastrana revealed that in the setting of the intense work of "lobbying" by the chancellor Guillermo Fernández de Soto no less than himself this change was brought about, the compromise of the countries that had doubts about the fitness of this decision was welcome. "The Swedish chancellor no less than the Fench chancellor have expressed to us their solidarity with Colombia for the inclusion of the FARC as terrorists on the 23rd upcoming. Pastrana reveló que en el marco de las intensas labores de 'lobby' que tanto él como el canciller Guillermo Fernández de Soto adelantaron en esta cumbre, se recibió el compromiso de los países que tenían dudas sobre la conveniencia de esa decisión. "Tanto la canciller de Suecia como el canciller francés nos han expresado su solidaridad con Colombia para la inclusión de las Farc como terroristas el próximo día 23." Not everyone in Europe has got the message, however. The Swiss reiterated their neutrality between the communist FARC guerilla army and the elected government of Colombia.Pastrana directed to them a forceful response to the declaration of neutrality from a spokesman of the Swiss chancery and returned to the subject of the terrorist character of the FARC, bringing forth a strong response from Pastrana. "In these moments, in the world one cannot be neutral in the face of terrorism...and for this we ask an explanation of the Swiss chancery in order to know if this is an official pronouncement," said the President, who recalled that the FARC has committed more than 700 terrorist outragesin the last five months. Pastrana le dio una fuerte respuesta a la declaración de neutralidad de un portavoz de la cancillería suiza en torno al tema del carácter terrorista de las Farc. "En estos momentos, en el mundo no puede haber neutralidad frente al terrorismo (...) y por eso pedimos una explicación a la cancillería Suiza para saber si este es un pronunciamiento oficial", dijo el Presidente, que recordó que las Farc cometieron más de 700 atentados terroristas en los últimos cinco meses.
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Friday, May 17, 2002
EUROPEAN UNION AND LATIN AMERICA
Summit news: Amidst much blather, Reuters carries two items of note:But there was little European sympathy for debt-strapped Argentina. Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, a visibly irritated Argentine President Eduardo Duhalde at his side, bluntly urged Argentina to take "painful decisions" and secure a deal with the International Monetary Fund as fast as possible. Spain said it expected the EU to add the Colombian guerrilla army FARC to its blacklist of terrorist organizations soon, a move the Colombian government has been pushing for. Aznar is a leader.
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COLOMBIA
After the battle: El Colombiano (Medellin) reports on the aftermath of an ambush of a unit of the Self-Defense Forces by a unit of the FARC at Campamiento, Antioquia province (see map linked at right):El Diablo does not appear among the line of bodies, his wife, with a baby in arms, looks for him without rest, but there is no scent of him for several hours until what was a battlefield and now is a cemetery is discovered. She just arrived from the municipality of Yarumal to find her destiny, because she knew that he is part of the Bloque Mineros of the Self-Defense forces and could be dead, thrown together with the rest of the bodies that are decomposing among the stubble. El Diablo no aparece entre el reguero de cadáveres, su esposa, con un bebé de brazos, lo busca sin descanso, pero no hay rastro suyo en el que hasta hace unas horas era campo de batalla y ahora es un cementerio al descubierto. Ella acaba de llegar desde el municipio de Yarumal a averiguar por su suerte, porque sabía que él hacía parte del Bloque Mineros de las Autodefensas y puede estar muerto, tirado junto con los demás cuerpos que se descomponen sobre el rastrojo. The imprints of combat are visible everywhere...land displaced by grenade explosions, mutilated bodies, crushed vegetation the shows the desparate and futile effort of the wounded to escape the ambush of Front 36 of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC). Some peasants, together with their children, come down to the place to witness the vestiges of the fight. They move naturally among the bodies, with little show of fear. Almost all walk without taking care for possible explosive devices that have not detonated during combat, some of half burried or partly hidden by the dry grass of the place. Las huellas del combate se notan a cada paso...armas vacías, tierra removida por las explosiones de granadas, cuerpos mutilados, vegetación aplastada que muestra el desesperado e inútil esfuerzo de un herido por escapar a la emboscada del frente 36 de las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc). Algunos campesinos, junto con sus hijos, suben al lugar a presenciar los vestigios del enfrentamiento. Se mueven con naturalidad entre los cuerpos, sin el menor asomo de temor. Sólo algunos pequeños se notan inquietos. Casi todos caminan sin poner cuidado a los posibles artefactos explosivos que no detonaron durante el combate, algunos de los cuales quedaron semienterrados u ocultos parcialmente por las yerbas secas del lugar. "This is the Cat?" The voice of of one of the girls calls to her two companions. After looking for a while and recalling some details, they conclude that this is his body. The cadaver is almost black, its features remain untouched, but are ripe to explode. "Este sí es el Gato?" La voz es de una de las muchachas que llama a sus dos acompañantes. Tras mirar un rato y acordarse de algunos detalles, concluyen que ese sí es su cuerpo. El cadáver está casi negro, sus facciones permanecen intactas, pero a punto de estallar. Better luck have his companions in the AUC, Éder Pérez, 23 years old, and Fabián Velásquez, 18, uncle and nephew respectively, who their neighbors of Campamento recognize and carry to the morgue at the hospital Wednesday night, and from which they left noon yesterday in the direction of the cemetery. Following the coffin, the curious increased. They arrived at the house that until a little while ago they were admitted, where they were permitted only a few minutes, before to be taken to the church, from it which they went to the cemetery. Their family is tranquil, well knows that, although dead, Éder and Fabián are not going to discompose in the weather, exposed to whichever carrion animal. Mejor suerte que sus compañeros de las Auc corrieron Éder Pérez, de 23 años, y Fabián Velásquez, de 18, tío y sobrino respectivamente, a quien sus vecinos de Campamento reconocieron y llevaron hasta la morgue del hospital la noche del miércoles, de la cual salieron al mediodía de ayer rumbo al cementerio. Tras los féretros, los curiosos crecen. Llegan a la casa que hasta hace poco los acogió, donde permanecen sólo unos minutos, antes de ser llevados a la iglesia, de la cual salen al cementerio. Su familia está tranquila, pues sabe que, aunque muertos, Éder y Fabián no se descomponen a la intemperie, expuestos a cualquier animal de carroña. The wife of El Diablo has not recovered her tranquility. In spite of not finding him among the dead of the Alto de la Laguna she knows that still she should look for him on other sides, in order to try to leave, once and for all, the hell that she has confronted. Quien no ha recuperado la tranquilidad es la esposa de El Diablo. A pesar de no encontrarlo entre los muertos de el Alto de la Laguna sabe que todavía debe buscarlo por otros lados, para intentar salir, de una vez por todas, del infierno que tiene enfrente. El Tiempo reports that approximately 130 were killed, roughly equally divided between men from the FARC and the AUC. The FARC assaulted an AUC camp in the early morning. Fighting continued until the army intervened and both guerilla forces left. A photo of the Army recovering bodies, taken for El Tiempo is here.
An English-language account of the battle is available from the AP - Las Vegas Sun.
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ARGENTINA
Bonex in trouble: La Nacion reports that the latest plan to substitute bonds for frozen savings accounts is in trouble, quoting the finance scretary, Guillermo Nielsen. The plan was noted yesterday in El Sur. This is the third Bonex bond-for-savings scheme that has been considered since Eduardo Duhalde took over at the first of the year. The last time it failed, the previous Economic Minister, Jorge Remes Lenicov, resigned. The current Economic Minister Roberto Lavagna supports Bonex III.
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U.S. AND LATIN AMERICA
Trade agreement expires: Yahoo! News - AP reports that a trade agreement between the United States and Colombia, Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador expired at midnight May 16. Not only will businesses in the Andean countries be required to pay duties on future exports, but they will have to pay as much as $400 million in retroactive duties on exports to the U.S. after February 15. The survival of companies, even entire industries, is at stake, according to the AP. Strong feelings of uncertainty and bitterness came with the expiration of the Andean Trade Preferences Act, a 1991 agreement created to strengthen legal alternatives to cocaine and heroin production. As of Friday, exporters across the South American region faced U.S. duties of up to 40 percent on staple trade items, including flowers and gold. Many in the four South American countries covered by the agreement — Colombia, Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador — saw its expiration as a double-cross. "Bolivia has put a lot of effort into eradicating coca, which has caused a lot of problems here," said analyst Carlos Villegas, referring to an eradication effort of the plant that produces cocaine. The drive has triggered clashes in which 39 coca farmers, police and soldiers have been killed since 1997. "The least that we expected was some reciprocity from the United States — that they would open up their markets to help us compensate for these losses," Villegas said. In contrast with South American upset, in the U.S. the expiration of the treaty passed with little notice. However, the destruction of Andean-region companies and industries this event will cause will be strongly felt in the United States. Expiration of the agreement provides a convenient excuse to relax unpopular coca eradication programs in South America and is almost certain to stimulate increased immigration into the United States."If the United States wants to grow economically and stem migration, it should promote jobs in this part of the world," Joyce de Ginatta said. The immediate villain here is the U.S. Senate and the textile lobby. Unfortunately, however, this is but one in many recent setbacks to free trade. Nothing in the world today--not even terrorism--is more dangerous than the rise of protectionism and anti-globalization. Unchecked, these movements will bring on a real depression.
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ARGENTINA
Honest Ed: From Bloomberg.com, a quote from Argentine President Eduardo Duhalde, in Spain, on plans to convert frozen savings to bonds:"The Economy Minister (Roberto Lavagna) is finishing the research. We need to make sure that bonds we give to the savers will have value because, otherwise, it would be a trick for those who have trusted in Argentina's banks and financial system." And no Argentina government would ever do that.
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ARGENTINA
It's not all Argentina's fault: Mary Anastasia O'Grady considers an obscure but very important issue in today's The America's column in The Wall Street Journal--accountability and transparency in international financing agency lending.
O'Grady's main point is that when loans by an international lending agency--the World Bank, InterAmerican Development Bank, et.al.--go bad, everyone suffers but the agency. The borrowing country's government gets defeated, the economy collapses, businesses go bankrupt, people are impoverished. Non-public foreign lenders and investors lose their investments. The international lending agencies are typically made whole, however, which leads to the well-known problem of moral risk--lenders with guarantees don't need to be careful in their lending.
Compounding this problem, O'Grady says, is the secrecy in which international lending takes place. Although loans are announced, often with much fanfare, repayment schedules are secret, as O'Grady found when she attempted to follow up on reports that Argentina was past due on an $800 million payment to the World Bank, only to be told that the bank would "not confirm any numbers" and that the "payment schedule is not public information." This is damaging to the political process. Interest in what the government is doing with its dwindling international reserves is running high. The state is broke and is paying wages in scrip. It has defaulted on its private sector debt. Eventually, she says, Argentina disclosed that there was a payment made--press reports indicate $683 million taken from the central bank's reserves--but what for remains secret.That surely dismayed more than a few Argentine bank depositors whose dollar assets have been converted into pesos and are now frozen because the central bank hasn't the funds to make them whole. Such secrecy also makes it difficult for less privileged foreign lenders and investors to accurately assess their risk and for local business and residents to know the true state of their country's finances. This eats away at the effectiveness of market mechanisms and can also weaker political stability in borrowing countries. O'Grady's solution is an end to the international lending agencies first-in-line status.Should IFI (international financial institutions) lenders actually be accountable for what they shell out, with risk of default equal to what the private sector now faces, all the dynamics would change. It would be bad news for the "suits" in Washington who've made a good life out of their "concern" for the poor but it would be good news for the poor themselves, who might bet a better government in the bargain.
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Thursday, May 16, 2002
VENEZUELA
The road to hell: Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, in Spain today, made crystal clear his understanding of what the Bolivarian revolution is and the direction he intends to take the country. Speaking at the European-Latin American-Caribbean summit in Madrid Chávez said, according to El Universal: "El neoliberalismo es el camino al infierno." This was a very important speech."It is the road to the hell. It is not for us that have lived (that I say this), but for you who are beginning to live. I call to the young of the world to resist this road," said Chávez at a conference at the Diplomatic School of Madrid. "Es el camino al infierno. No para nosotros los que hemos vivido, sino para ustedes que están comenzando a vivir. Hago un llamado a los jóvenes del mundo para que se resistan a ese camino," dijo Chávez en una conferencia que pronunció en la Escuela Diplomática de Madrid. The national leader indicated that in a country like Venezuela with countless riches, it is not justifiable that 80 per cent of the population lives in poverty. "How can this be explained?" asked Chávez, El mandatario nacional señaló que en un país como Venezuela con incontables riquezas, no se justifica que el 80 por ciento de su población viva en pobreza. "¿Cómo se explica esto?" se preguntó Chávez. The "riches" Chávez is referring to here is oil. Non-Venezuelan commentators constantly point out that Venezuelans, at all levels, have always overestimated the ability of the oil industry to bring widespread prosperity and development. In fact, extractive industries--whether its the Venezuelan oil patch or the western mining areas of the turn of the 20th Century United States, always bring difficult social and economic problems, one of the worst of which is uneven development and vastly unequal incomes. Solutions, not abuse, are needed to overcome them.The chief of state said that the political model that reigned in Venezuela from 1958 until 1998 when he won the presidential election was responsible for the situation in the country. "This political model ended up degenerating into the tyranny of small privileges, of the guilt of parties that resulted in the taking away from the people of their fundamental rights...A democracy without the people is not a democracy although there is a constitution," he commented. He indicated that the Venezuelan economic model, sheltered by the political model, benefited the minority "that has lived very well from the material point of view, but from the spiritual one has not lived very well." El jefe de Estado responsabilizó de tal situación al modelo político que imperó en Venezuela desde 1958 hasta 1998 cuando ganó las elecciones presidenciales. "Este modelo político terminó degenerando en tiranía de pequeños privilegiados, de cúpulas de partidos que terminó quitándole al pueblo sus derechos fundamentales(...) Una democracia sin pueblo no es democracia aunque tenga Constitución," comentó. Agregó que el modelo económico venezolano, amparado por el modelo político, benefició a las minorías ''que ha vivido muy bien desde el punto de vista material, pero desde el espiritual no vive muy bien." Chávez attacked the shortlived government of Pedro Carmona for, he said, conducting "searches, persecutions, assasinations, deterntions," while he was under arrest. He contrasted the actions of the government of Carmona with the "the peaceful course and transformation of the Bolivarian revolution." Contrarrestó la actuación del Gobierno de Carmona con el corte "pacífico y transformador de la revolución bolivariana."
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ARGENTINA
Bonex III According to La Nacion, the government of President Eduardo Duhalde is about to put forward another plan to release funds in frozen savings accounts. Under the new plan, savers would have five options:
1. Accept government bonds.
2. Receive and use a certificate to buy real estate under construction or to be constructed, automobiles, agricultural machinery or industrial machinery.
3. Invest in export financing.
4. Receive and sell a certificate in the open market.
5. Leave the account in the bank for a fixed term.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2002
VENEZUELA
Bolivarian Circles: From El Nacional today:During his plea in the National Assembly, the ex-vice president of the Republic, Diosdado Cabello, gave assurances that the Bolivarian Circles were social organization, and did not possess arms other than the law. Nevertheless, he took advantage of the opportunity to give this advice: "every time that they feel that the democracy is in danger they are going to come out." Durante su interpelación en la Asamblea Nacional, el ex vicepresidente de la República y actual ministro de Interior, Diosdado Cabello, aseguró que los círculos bolivarianos son organizaciones sociales y no poseen otra arma que las leyes. Sin embargo, aprovechó la oportunidad para hacer una advertencia: "cada vez que sientan que la democracia está en peligro van a salir." Moreover, he said: In this respect be informed that, since the month of April until May, the number of organizations of this type has increased from 80,000 to 130,000. En este sentido informó que, desde el mes de abril hasta mayo, el número de organizaciones de este tipo se ha elevado de 80 mil a 130 mil. In this last bit, Cabello seems to have been smarting-off a bit, as this next sentence suggests:"Thanks to the publicity that has been given us, because we don't have the money for this," he indicated. "Gracias por la publicidad que nos han dado, porque nosotros no tenemos dinero para eso," señaló. Cabello should know. As vice-president, he was a leading organizer of the Bolivarian Circles. As minister of the interior and justice, he is in charge of the national police. It is no wonder that the Circles are becoming one of the most controversial institutions in Venezuela.
In his testimony, Cabello also stated that he believes organizers of the April 11 anti-Chávez march intended a provocation that would legitimate a coup--meaning they planned the coup too. He said the march leaders attempted to direct the march to Miraflores Palace, where they knew it would encounter pro-Chávez demonstrators, probably creating a riot.
El Universal also has a story on Cabello's testimony.
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CUBA
Varela II: Former President Jimmy Carter's Cuban trip, and media coverage thereof, has been dominated by two subjects: the U.S. economic embargo and a spat between the past president and current administration, about whether or not Cuba is helping Axis-of-Evil powers and wannabes obtain chemical and biological weapons. Less noted in the media, at least until Carter delivered a nationally televised speech in Cuba May 14, but potentially more important than either of these, is the Varela Project. The Varela Project is a petition campaign that has become the focus of democratic dissidence in Cuba today. Varela participants have gathered 10,000 signatures, as is required under the Cuban constitution, to put important reforms on a referendum ballot. Getting the vote isn't automatic; the national assembly must approve the vote. But by submitting the petitions, Verela organizer Oswaldo Payá and his group have put the Castro regime in a difficult spot. (El Sur noted the project yesterday, commenting on a lengthy article in The Wall Street Journal.)
In his May 14 speech, Carter supported both initiatives, balancing a call for democratic reform with a call for the U.S. to lift the embargo, adding, according to the Yahoo! News - AP account of the event, "Because the United State is the most powerful nation, we should take the first step," Carter said. Carter is the only one who likes both ideas, however. Castro has been mum on Varela so far, though he can't like it. He demands that the U.S. lift the embargo. (There are skeptics who say he just wants to agitate against the embargo, blaming it for communism's inevitable failure, but doesn't want it actually lifted, since nothing much would change for the better, and he'd be out one scapegoat.) The U.S. has made it clear it supports democratic dissidence on the islant, but isn't going to lift the embargo anytime soon--the embargo's political merits, though not necessarily its policy merits--being crystal clear.
If the Carter trip seems to have yielded a stand-off, with nothing changed except the noise level, it is--in the short run. Cuba and the U.S. remain at loggerheads, each making demands that the other can't or won't meet. As for Carter, he remains, in Laura Ingraham's words (from her column in The Los Angeles Times, "the raspberry seed in the wisdom tooth of every administration that succeeded him."
Over the longer term, Carter's visit may turn out to be surprisingly important. Although Carter tried to balance his speech, the two subjects--the embargo and reform--are not at all equal. What is being asked of U.S. is marginal to the U.S.. What is being asked of Castro is fundamental to Cuba. While the continuation or removal of the embargo hardly affects the United States, Varela could mean regime change in Cuba. So the bottom line on Carter's visit is this: He informed Cubans all over the island about Varela, many for the first time, and publicly endorsed it.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2002
VENEZUELA
Still no reconciliation: When he returned to power, President Hugo Chávez issued a call for understanding: "I too have to reflect on many things. And I have done than in these hours," he told The New York Times, as quoted in (and linked from) El Sur. Since then, Venezuela's daily papers have revealed nothing of the kind. The country appears more divided than ever. For example:
1. Former members of the Directorate of Police Intelligence Services (Dirección de Servicios de Inteligencia Policial, DISIP) charge that they were dismissed because they refused to train the Bolivarian circles, which Chávez opponents charge are being turned into armed street gangs like Cuba's block committees (and Chávez partisans claim are political, social and educational clubs), reports El Nacional. The ex-officers also charge that there is a plan to dismantle DISIP in favor of a new semi-official, i.e. pro-Chávez, intelligence structure.
2. General Manuel Rosendo former head of the Armed Forces Unified Command (Cufan), and a Chávez opponent, and the Vice President and former Defense Minister José Vicente Rangel, and a Chávez partisan, are publicly disputing Rangel's role in the events leading up to Chávez's removal, reports El Nacional.Rosendo (in testimony to the National Assembly) accused the ex-minister of defense of coordinating with the mayor of Caracas, Freddy Bernal (a fierce Chávez partisan), the use of the Bolivarian Circles to protect the Palace of Milaflores from the march of the oppositon on April 11. Rosendo acusó al ex ministro de la Defensa de coordinar con el alcalde de Caracas, Freddy Bernal, el uso de los círculos bolivarianos para proteger el Palacio de Miraflores de la marcha de la oposición el 11 de abril. Such use would almost surely have led to a riot. Not surprisingly, Rangel denies it.He indicated that there doesn't exist any recording or proof that supports (Rosendo's) denunciation and attributed it to his simple interest in discrediting the government. Expresó que no existe ninguna grabación o prueba que soporte la denuncia y lo atribuyó al simple interés de desprestigiar al gobierno. El Universal, reports that General Néstor González González has supported Rosendo's version in his testimony to the National Assembly.
3. Two opposition political leaders publicly called on the army to dismantle the Bolivarian Circles, reports El Universal. Julio Borge of Justice First and Francisco Arias Cárdenas of the Union Party agree that it falls to the National Armed Force to dismantle the Bolivarian Circles, that, according to the Chief of State Hugo Chávez, ought to be strengthened. Julio Borges de Primero Justicia y Francisco Arias Cárdenas del partido Unión coincidieron en que le corresponde a la Fuerza Armada Nacional desmantelar a los círculos bolivarianos, que según el Jefe de Estado Hugo Chávez, deben ser repotenciados. Two points:
First, whichever side one believes in these factual disputes (and El Sur tends to believe the opposition) it is clear that bitterness is increasing, not disappearing, more than a month after the short-lived coup.
Second, Chávez's opponents appear more angry than defeated. According to Yahoo! News - AP, for example, the opposition-organized demonstration May 11 commemorating the April 11 events was very large.
Chávez does seem worried, however. El Universal reports that his planned trip to Madrid for a European Union/Latin American summit "remains up in the air" ("sigue en el aire"). If he does go, the report says, it will be at the last moment without notice.
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COLOMBIA
Stunning, if true: The Colombian army accused the FARC of using chemical weapons, reports Diario El Pais (Cali, Colombia). The commander of the Third Division of the Army, General Francisco René Pedraza, in this way revealed it to reporters the explanation about the use of chemical arms on the part of the guerillas of the FARC. El comandante de la III División del Ejército, general Francisco René Pedraza, así lo reveló a periodistas al explicar sobre el uso de armas químicas por parte de la guerrilla de las Farc. To appearances, the lack of air and an intermitent suffocating feeling--without apparent cause--experienced by several of the soldiers in the zone of Los Farallones, is the best proof of the use ofsaid armament. Al parecer, la falta de aire y un ahogamiento intermitente,- sin causa aparente-, de varios de los uniformados en la zona de Los Farallones, es la mayor muestra del uso de dicho armamento. If true, this would be big news indeed.
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COLOMBIA
More FARC killings: El Tiempo reports that the communist guerillas of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia FARC killed two police and a three-year old girl in the province of Tolima, southeast of Bogata. The police were assassinated while patrolling.The little one killed, was walking on the street on the hand of her mother, when the attack came. La pequeña que murió, caminaba por la calle de la mano de su mamá, cuando se produjo el ataque.
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CUBA
Varela Project: Yesterday's (May 13) Wall Street Journal (no link) has a lengthy, front page article on the Varela Project, a petition campaign seeking a referendum on political reform in Fidel Castro's island prison, and its creator Oswaldo Payá. The project, named after a 19th Century Catholic priest and independence advocate Felix Varela, seeks to take advantage of Article 88 of Cuba's constitution which permits any citizen who collects 10,000 signatures to petition the National Assembly for a referendum on any subject.
Payá and his volunteers have gathered more than 20,000 signatures and submitted a pared-down list of 11,020 to the National Assembly last Friday. The petition calls for a national referendum to allow free speech and free elections, amnesty for political prisoners, and the right to own and operate private businesses. Unlike much Cuban dissident activity, the Varela project has been designed in a way that the government finds difficult to counter or dismiss.By calling for a plebiscite guaranteed by the 1976 constitution, the Varela Project is legal, moderate and thus almost impossible to disqualify," says Sebastian Arcos of the Cuban Committee for Human Rights, another local dissident group. The regime, he adds, is in "the uncomfortable dilemma of accepting the plebiscite or admitting it ignores its own laws." As a result, the Journal Cuban officials apparently have not decided how to handle the petition.Some want to simply ignore Varela; others say the growing international prominence of Mr. Payá won't allow such an easy solution. The paper suggests that part of the official paralysis may also be due to Cuba's growing isolation, noting recent spats with Mexico and Uruguay over Cuba's human rights record. At the same time, Cuba's economic situation is deteriorating again."People are at the end of their rope," says Varela volunteer Regis Iglesias, 32. "But all Castro talks about are the glories of the revolution." In fact, the government's uncertain response to Varela reflects the country's uncertainty as the Castro regime seems to be drawing to a close. The Cuban dictator is about 75 years old and is rumored not to be in the best health. Although the New Class nomenclatura plans to retain control under Castro's brother and heir apparent Raul Castro, visitors to the island sense widespread feeling of patient expectation, waiting for Castro's death, anticipating regime change soon after. If so, Oswaldo Payá, age 50, may become a very important figure indeed:"I think Castro doesn't crush Varela because he doesn't see clearly the threat it poses," says Cuban writer Carlos Alberto Montaner, who lives in exile in Madrid. "Meantime, Payá is becoming a sort of Vaclev Havel, a well-khown man of uncompromising moral fiber whom the outside world is watching carefully."
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MEXICO
Big PAN win: President Vicente Fox's National Action Party (PAN) appears to have won an important local election in Mexico, reports Bloomberg.com. The prize is the City of Juarez, won with 46.6 per cent of the vote by Jesus Alfredo Delgado, a 58-year-old lawyer. The election was close enough that his opponent, Roberto Barraza, of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) has asked for a recount. Yahoo! News - AP also has a report. El Sur had a pre-election report on May 8.
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Monday, May 13, 2002
ARGENTINA
Finally reality: Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna admitted today that Argentina will not receive new money (plata fresca) even if it comes to terms with the IMF, reports Clarin. If there is an agreement, it would be directed toward writing off obligations to the fund itself. The only new money would be small lines of credit to finance exports.Argentina should face the expiration with the multilaterals of some $9 billion this year "and this is the number to which we can aspire," he indicated. Argentina debe afrontar este año vencimientos con los organismos multilaterales por unos 9.000 millones de dólares "y esa es la cifra a la que podemos aspirar," señaló. From his first day, Lavagna brought economic realism to the government of President Eduardo Duhalde. Unfortunately for him, realism's opposite, economic nationalism, is on the rise in the legislature.
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ARGENTINA
Bonex gets strike two: The government of Argentine President Eduardo Duhalde has abandoned plans to convert frozen savings accounts into bonds, reports Bloomberg. The news service attributes the withdrawl to the banks unwillingness to back the bonds, or any part thereof, with their own assets.The government's unwillingness to meet the banks' demands is a setback for international firms such as Spain's Banco Santander Central Hispano SA that have said they may abandon Argentine units unless the government changes policies and allows them to resume normal business. Government limits on bank withdrawals have stifled an economy already in its fourth year of recession and left banks, already short of cash because of Argentina's debt default and devaluation, unable to perform most transactions or provide credit. Setback for the banks? The release of trapped savings is a key demand of the IMF, on the government. It is one of four measures that have been strongly backed by the Duhalde government since its near death experience in late April. Only one--revision of the inflation index--has been approved, and that by decree. The others besides Bonex--repeal of the economic subversion law, revision of the bankruptcy law--are tied up in the Legislature. And today, the leader of the opposition Radicals in the Senate announced that they will not vote for the repeal of the law of economic subversion, reports the Télam news agency.
This is Bonex's second defeat. The last time, it led to the resignation of former economy minister Jorge Remes Lenicov. His successor Roberto Lavagna is not disposed to resign--yet. For now,President Eduardo Duhalde said the government was studying a plan to give depositors government real estate and other property in exchange for their savings. El Sur also reviewed this situation yesterday.
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COLOMBIA
Review and outlook: The Washington Post reviews the state of the war in Colombia and prospects for the future with the administration of Andres Pastrana almost a an end.The state of Colombian democracy might be summed up like this: The FARC holds hostage one of the four other presidential candidates, five members of Congress, 11 state legislators and a provincial governor. The AUC meanwhile claims to have elected dozens of candidates in the congressional elections held in March and has killed a few it didn't like. This Jackson Diehl column is very tough.
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Sunday, May 12, 2002
COLOMBIA
FARC strategy: According to El Tiempo, Colombian analysts of the current state of the guerilla war say that the FARC is employing a two-pronged approach in their current offensive.
First, the article says, the guerilla army is attempting to engage the Colombian United Self-Defense Forces (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia, or AUC), while avoiding direct combat with the army.I see clearly that the strategy is to elude the army and directly confront the 'paras,'" affirmed (ex-guerilla and analyst León) Valencia "Veo claro que la estrategia es eludir al Ejército y enfrentar directamente a los 'paras,'" afirma Valencia. The idea is to recapture territories lost to the AUC during the past decade and especially while the FARC was confined in a protected area in sourthcentral Colombia during peace talks (the provinces of Caquetá, Meta, Putumayo and Guaviare).The major effect of the paramilitaries' advance in the last five years, besides making the FARC and the ELN (a second, smaller guerilla group) fall back, was to strangle the corridors through which they could move," assured the social investigator Javier Naranjo. "La mayor efectividad de la avanzada paramilitar en los últimos cinco años, además de hacer replegar a las Farc y al Eln, fue ir estrangulando los corredores por donde estos se movían," asegura el investigador social Javier Naranjo.
Second, FARC is attempting to bring the conflict to the urban population and their associated infrastructure, with attacks that are spectacular and, they hope, demoralizing, but that can be carried out by relatively little resources.In the last two months, the confrontation between these two irregular armies (FARC and AUC) has been intense. Nevertheless, as their combat has occurred in rural areas very distant and inaccessible, little of them has registered. Moreover, the offenses in the cities have stolen all the space in the communications media. En los últimos dos meses, la confrontación entre estos dos ejércitos irregulares ha sido intensa. Sin embargo, como los combates se han producido en áreas rurales muy distantes e inaccesibles, poco se ha registrado de ellos. Además, los atentados en las ciudades se han robado todo el espacio en los medios de comunicación. Although the spectacular urban bombings and kidnappings (including of a presidential candidate and several elected officials) dominate the news, El Tiempo's analysts believe the guerilla's major emphasis is on taking territory in the north.Three specific zones appear to be the immediate objectives of "operation return" of the FARC, Urabá, central Magdelena province and the Catatumbo area. Tres zonas concretas parecen ser los objetivos inmediatos de esta 'operación retorno' de las Farc: Urabá, el Magdalena Medio y la zona del Catatumbo. Looking at the map of the Colombian northeast, it is easy to note that the sweeping operation against the AUC from central Magdelena to the east, complemented the one that rises from Chocó to Urabá, completing formation of an enormous mobilization corridor, using the north of Antioquia. Observando el mapa del noroccidente colombiano es fácil notar que una operación de barrido contra las Auc desde el Magdalena Medio hacia el occidente, complementada con una que suba desde el Chocó hasta Urabá, terminaría formando un enorme corredor de movilización, aprovechando el norte de Antioquia. Given the FARC's strategic aims, El Tiempo's analysts agree that prospect is for more hard fighting."What happened at Bojayá (Chocó) with its 119 civilians massacred, is only a reflection of what is is coming for the communities that are going to be in the middle of this fight," insisted an analyst at the National University who asks that his name be withheld. "Lo de Bojayá (Chocó) con sus 119 civiles masacrados, es solamente un reflejo de lo que se viene para las comunidades que van a quedar en la mitad de esa lucha," asegura un analista de la Universidad Nacional que pide reserva de su nombre.
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COLOMBIA
Another FARC atrocity: The army has recovered the bodies of nine soldiers kidnapped and murdered by the communist guerilla army FARC, reports El Tiempo.
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VENEZUELA
Back to the streets Venezuela's opposition took to the streets of Caracas to remember the 17 people killed last month during demonstrations against President Hugo Chávez, reports the Financial TimesAmid a boisterous sea of flags and banners, protesters, many wearing black armbands, demanded a new president and justice for those who died when gunmen opened fire during the April 11 anti-government rally that sparked the coup. On the other hand... Also on Saturday, hundreds of supporters of the left-wing president held a memorial rally and called on investigators to punish those they say backed the coup. "We want them to pay because they violated the constitution and violated the rights of the people," said Gladys Delgado, an assistant music director.
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ARGENTINA
Update: The government of President Eduardo Duhalde hit a low point about three weeks ago. The Senate refused to consider a plan to convert the money trapped in frozen savings accounts into bonds--releasing this money being one of the primary requirements for aid from the International Monetary Fund. Frustrated, Economic Minister Jorge Remes Lenicov resigned, leading to a week-long search for a successor and a series of meetings between Duhalde and his primary constituency, nation's Peronist state governors.
At that juncture, Duhalde faced two decisions: 1) either try to stay until the end of his (really Fernando De La Rúa's) term in 2003, or call early elections; 2) attempt--seriously--to meet the IMF's conditions, or start down the road of economic nationalism and populism.
The decision not to call early elections was relatively easy, and was announced at the meeting, amidst some grumbling from the governors. Duhalde clearly did not want to leave office with his place in history dictated solely by his record as president so far.
His second decision was less easy, there being immediate popularity to be gained in Argentina by blaming someone else. Still, it has become apparent in the weeks following the summit with Peronist governors that Duhalde is totally committed to meeting the IMF's requirements. First, he named a new economy minister, Roberto Lavagna, who sought and received assurances that the government would do whatever was needed to get aid. Since then, Duhalde has attempted to gain passage--or enact by decree--all of the IMF's preferred measures, including revision of the country's inflaction indexing scheme (to prevent a rapid wage/price spiral), repeal of the economic subversion law to (which has been used to harass business people), revision of the bankruptcy law (to better protect creditors) and conversion of funds trapped into savings accounts into bonds (to get the financial system functioning again).
Duhalde has found it difficult to get these items through the Legislature, however. The most recent example: Clarin reports that the plan to convert frozen savings into bonds appears to have failed. The government wanted banks to help guarantee the bonds; the bankers wanted compensation.
Even as these measures are still being considered, opposition--based in economic nationalism--is rising. During last Wednesday's National Assembly debate over bankruptcy reform, for example, Alicia Castro, an assembly member and leader of the left-wing Front for Change--Frente para el Cambio--unfurled and American flag and placed on the desk of the president of the assembly. Images of this event, which created a storm in the body, from La Nacion are here and here.
And the main frontpage story in today's Pagina/12 is an attack on the United States and the IMF. Here are some subheads:Surge in new anti-imperialism? Is the anti-American sentiment deep? Is there a plan iin Washington to destroy the country. Has a nationalism been born here after the discussion of the laws of bankruptcy and ecnomic subversion? ¿Surgió un nuevo antiimperialismo? ¿El sentimiento antinorteamericano es profundo? ¿Hay un plan de Washington para destruir el país? Ha nacido aquí un nacionalismo después de la discusión de las leyes de Quiebras y Subversión Económica? Duhalde is in a tight spot, as was pointed out in El Sur on May 3. Even if he succeeds in pleasing the IMF and getting funds, it would most likely be just about enough to keep current with past IMF loans, plus a bit for social relief. This would not be enough to launch the economic turnaround, the promist of which has been implicit in the government's strategy since Duhalde took control in January. All in all, tough and getting tougher. Look for early elections. Then look for a left wing victory.
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Friday, May 10, 2002
COLOMBIA
Uribe update: The Financial Times reports on the Colombian presidential election (scheduled for May 26) and the clear frontrunner Alvaro Uribe.
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ARGENTINA
Banks want out; savers want money: Worried that foreign banks are going to close and leave the country, Argentine savers are trying even harder (if that's possible) to get their money out while they can, reports Bloomberg . "People are acting on rumors,'' said Mirta Lancelle, a spokeswoman for Banco Sudameris Argentina SA. "The bank will open normally Monday and all our cash machines are full.'' Worries were stimulated when the Bank of Nova Scotia (Canada's fourth-largest) announced it planned to sell its Argentine subsidiary (the country's 11th-largest bank).
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CUBA
No bugs here! Fidel Castro personally went on government TV (there is no other kind) to deny that his government is developing biological weapons, reports Yahoo! News - AP. In an additional protest of the U.S. official's allegations, the Cuban government has called out more than 100,000 people for a Saturday morning rally in a Havana suburb to denounce Washington's "fallacies." What fun!
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CUBA
Cuba referendum requested: Reuters reports thatA group of Cuban dissidents on Friday handed in an unprecedented petition backed by 11,000 signatures calling for a national referendum to reform the country's one-party communist system. A provision in the constitution permits this. Castro's government dismisses the effor as a "plot." Former President Jimmy Carter is due in two days. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, he has to say about this.
Yahoo! News - AP also has a report.
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VENEZUELA
Governor issues warning: Henrique Salas Feo, governor of the state of Carabobo, warned of an effort to weaken the army (Fuerza Armada Nacional) and strengthen the Bolivarian Circles, reports El Universal. Salas Feo called the Bolivarian Circles "'Circles of Death' and said 'one must stop them from strengthening. These groups are intended to intimidate and to make civil society fearful'" ("'Círculos de la Muerte' y dijo que 'hay que detener su fortalecimiento. Estos grupos son para amedrentar y hacer que la sociedad civil tenga temor'").
Referring to the newly installed commander of Fort Paramacay, who the governor believed is inadequate, Salas Feo said thatAs he judged it, this designation forms part of the weakening of the FAN that, combined with the strengthening of the circles of death, taking us to a grave security problem." "A su juicio esta designación forma parte del 'debilitamiento de la FAN que, combinado con el fortalecimiento de los círculos de la Muerte, nos está llevando es a un problema gravísimo de seguridad."
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ARGENTINA
Possible future: The Latin Business Chronicle presents a scenario, leading to dollarization.
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COLOMBIA
FARC closes churches: The FARC has closed 10 protestant churches in Arauquita, Arauca province, reports El Tiempo"They told us only that we will close our churches, but they did not threaten us nor tell us what it was they held against us, for which we will prefir to remain prudent in this case," stated the wife of a pastor of (one of) said congregation(s). "Ellos nos dijeron únicamente que cerráramos nuestras iglesias, pero no nos amenazaron ni nos dijeron que iban a atentar contra nosotros, por lo que preferimos guardar prudencia en este caso", precisó la esposa de un pastor de dicha congregación. The 2,000 adherents to these temples now meet at night in small houses to conduct their ceremonies in limited space after the FARC, via various communications, have prohibited the sects. Los 2.000 devotos que acudían a estos templos se reúnen ahora en las noches en pequeñas casas para realizar sus ceremonias en espacios limitados después de que las Farc, a través de varios comunicados, prohibieran los cultos. It is with profound pain that I lament that this is succeeding because the people that say they are friends of the people are actually their enemies. They (the FARC) are not transforming the country, they are destroying it with this form of activity," said the leader of the missionary movement, Juan Carlos Monsalve. "Con profundo dolor lamento lo que está sucediendo porque esas personas que dicen ser amigas del pueblo están actuando como sus enemigos. Ellos (las Farc) no están transformando el país, lo están destruyendo con su forma de actuar," expresó el líder del Movimiento Misionero, Juan Carlos Monsalve. Leaders of the churches are seeking the support of the International Red Cross. They believe they are being attacked for supporting presidential candidate Alvaro Uribe Vélez, which they deny, saying they are not interested in politics.Martha Parales, of the Foursquare Church of Arauquita, insisted that those who congregate in the churches are humble people that do not merit this fate because their only objective is to praise God in order to pray for peace and unity in community. Martha Parales, de la Iglesia Cuadrangular de Arauquita, insistió que quienes se congregan en las iglesias son personas humildes que no merecen esta suerte porque su único objetivo es alabar a Dios para orar por la paz e integrarse en comunidad. Arauca is in eastern Colombia, along the border with Venezuela.
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COLOMBIA
Better late than never: It's a week late, but finally one mainstream media provider has noticed that the European Union has spefically refused to call Colombia's FARC communist guerillas a terrorist group. That media provider is the press service United Press International.The Colombian guerrillas who fired gas cylinders filled with explosives into a crowded church Friday were not terrorists, at least not in the eyes of the European Union. Nor, according to the EU, was it a terrorist group who left the booby-trapped corpse of a teenage boy outside a Colombian army base last weekend. In the week since leaving Colombia's largest rebel groups off its list of terrorist organizations, the EU has provoked outrage and despair in the war-torn country over the message it believes the move sends to militants, citizens and international community alike. The EU's failure was noted last weekend in several posts in El Sur. Also noted in El Sur was that it was mainly the Swedes--and secondarily the French (see El Sur) who prevented the European Union from admitting the obvious. Unfortunately, UPI did not see fit to point out the culprits.Now that UPI has the story, perhaps it will appear in the papers.
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COLOMBIA
Pre-election interview In the run up to the May 26 presidential election, United Press International interviews Francisco Santos, vice presidential candidate on the Alvaro Uribe ticket. Uribe and Santos lead their nearest competitor by about 20 points. Uribe has campaigned on getting tougher with guerillas of both the right and left."Colombia is in its worst situation in 100 years," Santos told reporters in Washington following his week-long visit to the United States, adding that ending civil conflict and restoring social stability would top the agenda for the independent presidential candidate. "We will cut Congress's budget by half ... and get rid of all the useless spending by the government," Santos said, adding that far too much public money was spent to ensure the privileges of politicians and the upper classes.
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Thursday, May 09, 2002
ARGENTINA
A native's lament: Fernando Gonzalez, a native of Argentina (and, based on certain contextual clues, a leftist) reports on the sad state of Argentina today, in the May 8
Washington Post. Excellent and very sad.
The specific examples Gonzalez cites are verified by blogger T.L. Wilson (treasaigh.com), who lives there. Wilson wants electoral reform and no IMF/U.S. aid until it happens:The only solution to the problem is the deletion of the political class. There is only one way to do this and that is a complete overhaul of the electoral laws. The Catch 22 is that the only ones that can overhaul electoral laws are the members of the political class (or perhaps the Justices... but they are peas of the same pod)...It is imperative that the IMF and the US stick to their guns and insist on meaningful reform before they give this "pathetic, buffoonish and sometimes larcenous political class" another cent.
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VENEZUELA
Active military polled: A report of a second poll, this conducted among active-duty military, appears toward the end of the story in El Nacional noted in the previous post. The inquiry was conducted in public places and the street near military barracks, between May 4 and 6 in Caracas, Maracay and Maracaibo. Questioned were active military, who are registered to vote. Interviewed for Cifras Encuestadora C.A. (a polling and public opinion firm) were 473 members of all branches of the military--army, navy, air force and national guard. According to the study, 60.3% of those interviewed agree that it would be a good idea to hold a referendum to religitimate public authorities. More than 60 per cent believe that the activation of Plan Avila by Hugo Chávez was either a very bad idea or a bad idea. Plan Avila is the military's plan to defend the presidential palace, national legislature and other public buildings from insurrection. It's activation on April 11 was the proximate cause of the military command's decision to oust Chávez.
Here is the Cifras homepage.
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VENEZUELA
Chávez gets lift: Hugo Chávez's brief dismissal and quick return increased his support among the Venezuala's public, reports El Nacional. The Caracas paper has results of a poll of 800 Venezuelans questioned at the end of April.
Highlights of the poll include:* Chávez's popularity increased from 34.4 to 44.7 per cent; * the number of strong Chávez supporters ("votos duros") increased from 17.8 to 28.4; * the number of strong Chávez opponents ("críticos duros") fell from 48.8 to 43.9 per cent. * 56 per cent believe the April 11 uprising was not spontaneous, but the result of a conspiracy. Not all the results were positive for Chávez however. One of four respondents consider Chávez directly responsible for the deaths that took place during the April 11 demonstration that preceeded his ouster. Another 11.9 per cent blame the Bolivarian Circles, while 10.8 per cent blame interim President Pedro Carmona.
By way of explaning Chávez's resurgence, El Nacional reports:The expert (Luis Vicente León, who directed the poll) indicated that there are emotional factors that produced this change in the people's evaluation of the President: a certain air of the martyr, united with a triumph (his recovery of power); this without regard for the negative image that was left by those who created the interim government and committed many errors. El experto (Luis Vicente León, director de la encuestadora), indica que hay factores emocionales que producen este cambio en la evaluación de la gente hacia el Presidente: un cierto aire de mártir, unido a un triunfo (recuperó el poder); ello sin contar la pésima imagen que dejaron quienes integraron el gobierno interino y cometieron cantidades de errores. According to the poll, the principal opposition spokesman now is Alfredo Peña, mayor of greater Caracas, with 22.8 per cent; he is followed by the leader of the Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela, Carlos Ortega, with 15 per cent.
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Wednesday, May 08, 2002
COLOMBIA
U.S. calls FARC terrorist: El Tiempo notes that, in contrast with the EU, the U.S. believes the FARC is a terrorist organization.The Ambassador of the United States in Colombia, Anne Patterson, assured that the massacre in the municipality of Bojayá confirms that the rebeles meret this classification. La embajadora de Estados Unidos en Colombia, Anne Patterson, aseguró que la masacre en el poblado de Bojayá confirma que los rebeldes sí merecen ese calificativo. Previous comment from El Sur can be found here:El Sur, May 6;
El Sur, May 6;
El Sur, May 5;
El Sur, May 5;
El Sur, May 5;
El Sur, May 5.
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COLOMBIA
European Union shamed? The European Union sent its condolences to Colombia for the massacre by the communist guerilla group FARC of more than 100 people, including 45 children, in Bojayá, Chocó, Colombia. According to El Espectador:The European Union (EU) issued yesterday "its most firm condemnation of the violations of human rights and of the International Human Rights that the armed groups" perpetrated on the civilian population in Bojayá last Thursday. La Unión Europea (UE) manifestó ayer “su más firme condena a las violaciones de los Derechos Humanos y del Derecho Internacional Humanitario que los grupos armados” perpetraron contra la población civil en Bojayá el jueves pasado. Note that plural, "armed groups," though it was only FARC that shelled the church.As to the terrorist list, the EU explained that implied is a continuous process of periodic revision "that could start, in this case, the inclusion of other persons and entities on said list," as is the case of the FARC in the next revision, that will have to occur at the end of the current month. En cuanto a la lista de terroristas, la UE explicó que ésta implica un continuo proceso de revisión periódica “que podría originar, en su caso, la inclusión de otras personas y otras entidades en dicha lista,” como es el caso de las Farc en la próxima revisión, que tendrá lugar a finales del presente mes. We shall see.
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MEXICO
Key municipal electon: CSIS Hemisphere Focus (Center For Strategic & International Studies) has an interesting report on the election for Mayor of Ciudad Juárez, the capital of the state of Chihuahua, located just across the border from El Paso, Tx. The election (a rerun of a race annulled last year) is seen as a test for upcoming state and municipal elections throughout Mexico and a "mini-referendum" on the tenure of President Vicente Fox.
Most important, the candidate of the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party, Mexico's long time ruling party), Roberto Barraza Jordán, has formed an electoral alliance with three minor parties in the state, including the PRD (Democratic Revolutionary Party, a left-wing breakaway from the PRI) which is not so minor in much of Mexico.A Barraza triumph as a coalition candidate would embolden PRI politicians, who once enjoyed the luxury of standing alone, to explore other alliances. For instance, a pact with the PRD could yield defeats of the PAN in states like Sonora and Querétaro in mid-2003. The PAN (National Action Party) is the middle-class, conservative, Catholic party that elected Vicente Fox as the first non-PRI President in 2000.
Indeed, over time success of a PRI-PRD coalition could lead to the reunification of the parties over time, which would push Mexican politics in a strongly anti-American, leftward direction.
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Tuesday, May 07, 2002
VENEZUELA
Carmona interview: The Latin Business Chronicle has an interview with Pedro Carmona, the former president of Venezuela's business confederation, Fedecamaras, and the man who replaced Hugo Chávez for a little more than a day during April. Carmona, who is under house arrest, was interviewed by the paper by phone.
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ARGENTINA
Real estate: An article from Yahoo! News - AP illustrates another dimension of Argentina's slow-motion financial collapse."For over two months, we didn't close a single sale," he (Paul A. Reynolds of JR Reynolds, an upmarket realtor) said. "Thank goodness we managed to pick up the slack with the rentals business. "There's no response to the lower prices because there's no cash available. All the money is tied into the banking system and there's no credit to be had." So even wealthier home owners are opting to rent out their apartments and are looking for leases on smaller, cheaper ones. According to (Enrique) Colautti (of Associated Realtors in Extinction), the crisis has put more than a quarter of the country's 25,000 realtors out of business, meaning 40,000 lost jobs. The knock-on effect for the moribund construction and building supplies industry has been disastrous, he said, estimating some 1.8 million workers--90 percent of the sector's workforce--are idle. But the scariest part is buried near the end:"We're as busy as we've ever been," said Cliff Williams, Transpack's (a shipper and removal company) managing director, adding that in addition to more repatriations by multinationals that are scaling — or closing — down Argentine operations, shipping inquiries from individual Argentines have "skyrocketed." "The emigration business of Argentines packing up and leaving has suddenly become more significant for us," he said. "It's going to take a long time to restore confidence and our government is to blame for that."
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VENEZUELA
Gun Control: Venezuela's new Minister of the Interior and Justice Diosdado Cabello, who is in charge of the national police, proposes to disarm the public (desarme de la población civil), reports El Universal. According to Cabello, "It is a plan to disarm the entire civilian population and not only the Bolivarian circles..." "Es un plan de desarme de toda la población civil y no solamente de los círculos bolivarianos..." Bolivarian circles are pro-Chávez neighborhood groups. Opponents liken them to the Cuban block committees that enforce political conformity, a correspondence supporters deny. Cabello is a Chávez loyalist and, until a couple weeks ago, was vice president. As vice president he founded and coordinated the Bolivarian circles.It is not known if the coordination of the Bolivarian circles will continue with Diosdado Cabello in the post of Interior and Justice or will return to the ministry of the Secretary (of the Presidency) with the naming of Nelson merentes as head. Se deconoce si la coordinación de los círculos bolivarianos seguirá con Diosdado Cabello en el despacho del Interior y Justicia o regresarán al ministerio de la Secretaría con el nombramiento de Nelson Merentes como titular.
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Monday, May 06, 2002
VENEZUELA
The real Chávez: The Hugo Chávez who returned to power advocating conciliation and national dialogue is beginning to disappear. The new Hugo Chávez appears to be pointing out enemies as a way of laying the basis for authoritarianism.
Exhibit A is an item from the May 4 Washington Post in which Chávez describes without proof, a nebulous plot by the United States. He begins saying that the April 11 march "was the culmination of a plot hatched last year with the help of foreign sponsors to end his three-year presidency." He goes on:As evidence, the president talked for the first time about an alleged plan to assassinate him. Chavez said he was vacationing with his family in Barinas province in western Venezuela when he received a phone call from his foreign minister, Luis Alfonso Davila, on Jan. 1 telling him to return to Caracas immediately. When he arrived, Chavez said, Davila told him that a man from a Central American country had appeared at the Venezuelan Embassy in San Jose, Costa Rica. Chavez said the man told Venezuelan officials that he was a mercenary who had been training with perhaps a dozen other men in a Central American country for a mission scheduled for this year. The men had gathered in San Jose to await an American member of the team, who over drinks on New Year's Eve said, "Chavez is done. He doesn't know what's coming." "This was when the guy discovered what mission he was a part of," Chavez said. "And this mission had all the parts we saw on that day [April 11] -- sharpshooters, street violence. This guy said that the plan was to take advantage of public protests, to draw blood and end my presidency." Chavez refused to provide further details of the alleged assassination plot, including what country the informant was from or where he is now. He said he did not know whether the American was a government official or a private mercenary. In the Post article Chávez also raises again (without actually making) the charge that there were military ships and planes off the Venezuelan coast during his short-lived removal. These and other charges against the administration will be reviewed in upcoming U.S. Senate hearings, conducted by Sen. Christopher Dodd (D.-Conn.), who is hostile to the administration's Latin American policy and especially its point man, Otto Reich, who earned Dodd's enmity by supporting the the Nicaraguan Contras against the Sandanistas in the 1980s. It is probable that something close to the truth will emerge from hearings, and that the truth will be that the U.S. did not help or encourage the removal of Hugo Chávez. This need not disturb Chávez, however. He can be sure his supporters will judge the American process as they do their own national political bodies and believe what they want to believe.
Exhibit B is the testimony of the ex-Minister of the Interior and Justice Ramón Rodríguez Chacín before the National Assembly's investigative commission, as reported in El Nacional. He...accused Venezuelan "owners of great fortunes related to the international bank," members of Opus Dei and political parties, of having been the intellectual authors of the coup de etat against President Chávez. The ex-minister indicated that these actors continue conspiringsince "they did not go out of public view" April 11 ...acusó a venezolanos "dueños de grandes fortunas relacionados con la banca internacional," miembros del Opus Dei y de partidos políticos, de haber sido los autores intelectuales del golpe de Estado contra el presidente Chávez. El ex ministro sostiene que estos actores siguen conspirando pues "no salieron a la luz pública" el 11 abril. The primary reference here is to Gustavo Cisneros, billionaire owner of the Cisneros Group of Companies, a media empire that includes the Venevision TV channel. Newsweek, prominently, has suggested Cisneros' involvement in planning to turn the April 11 demonstration into the pretext for a coup. The company takes the charge seriously enough to respond by linking to a half-dozen items disputing the charge on the Cisneros Group of Companies website. Again, while the truth matters, the charge--true or not--also matters. An article on Rodríguez Chacín's testimony also appears in El Universal.
The obvious purpose of all this is to create fear--of prosecution, assault, expropriation--in his opponents and to energize his supporters. Chávez no longer has a popular majority among Venezuelans; a poll published in El Universal, showing that only 21 per cent of Venezuelans have confidence in Chávez, was reported El Sur April 24. The intensity and anger of Chávez's supporters can compensate for the fact that they are a minority, especially if the majority can be simultaneously intimidated. Still, Chávez has a very big problem that this strategy cannot overcome. That is this: Ultimately Chávez's statist, populist policies will deliver frustration, not growth, employment and prosperity. Adding political intimidation doesn't improve Venezuela's prospects.
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COLOMBIA
FARC kills 100+, U.N. blames government: The death toll in from the FARC attack on a church filled with people fleeing fighting between the FARC communist guerillas and the AUC rightist militia in Bojayá, Colombia, has reached 110, reports Yahoo! News - AP.
As far as the United Nations is concerned it's all the fault of the Colombian government. U.N. officials said they warned the government that a tragedy was about to occur before the fighting started. "It's lamentable that the government authorities ignored the early warning," the United Nations said in a prepared statement. The U.N. statement doesn't say what exactly the government was supposed to do with the warning. Bojayá is remote and reachable only by air or river. It took Colombian army units hours to get there after the incident. Even had the army arrived beforehand, it's not certain that a third armed force in the neighborhood would have helped. Moreover, the single fact that needs to be kept in mind is that it was the FARC that fired a gas tank loaded with high explosives into a church in which civilians had sought refuge.
To the U.N. these are details. What's really important is to maintain that there are "no enemies to the left."
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COLOMBIA
Editorial comment on Europe and the FARC:
From El Tiempo:The European countries ought to help close the fence around the FARC and the ELN (another leftist guerilla army), instead of contributing to loosening it. Los países europeos deberían ayudar a cerrar el cerco sobre las Farc y el Eln, en lugar de contribuir a aflojarlo. The debatable decision, assessed in Brussles as a lamentable diplomatic gaffe, has put in evidence the division that exists in the EU over terrorism. France and Sweden put an obstacle in front of the proposal of Belgium and Spain to include in the black list the FARC and ELN, with the argument that the inclusion would put an obstacle in the way of future political negotiations with these groups, which prevented arrival at consensus. This is something very debatable if one considers that the label (terrorist) assigned by the State Department to the FARC, already hung on them in 1999, did not impede the abortive process of the Caguán with this group. Behind the European position there are at times pragmatic motivations, such as the purchase of a kind of security against the kidnapping of their citizens or the maintenance of channels in order "to negotiate" for kidnap victims, a practice that the NGO Pax Christi has condemned because of its results, in an attempt to pressure to the leaders of this continent to make the payment of ransoms illegal. La discutible decisión, calificada en Bruselas como un lamentable gaffe diplomático, ha puesto en evidencia la división que existe en la UE frente al terrorismo. A la propuesta de Bélgica y España de incluir en la lista negra a las Farc y el Eln se le atravesaron Francia y Suecia, que impidieron que se llegara a un consenso con el argumento de que la inclusión podría obstaculizar una futura negociación política con esos grupos. Algo muy discutible si se considera que el rótulo asignado por el Departamento de Estado a las Farc, que ya lo colgaban en 1999, no impidió el malogrado proceso del Caguán con este grupo. Detrás de la posición europea hay tal vez motivaciones pragmáticas, como la compra de una especie de seguro contra el secuestro de sus ciudadanos o el mantenimiento de canales para 'negociar' secuestros, una práctica que por sus consecuencias ha condenado la conocida ONG Pax Christi, en busca de presionar a los gobiernos de ese continente para hacer ilegal el pago de rescates. But there is even more behind it, what appears to prevail in the EU is resistance to aligning with the United States in foreign policy. This was, with the exception of Spain, the European position with respect to Plan Colombia, which did not receive the support of the EU because it has United States sponsorship. Pero aún más que lo anterior, lo que parece prevalecer en la UE es la resistencia a alinearse así no más con Estados Unidos en su política exterior. Esa fue, con excepción de España, la posición europea respecto del Plan Colombia, que no recibió el respaldo de la UE por tener el auspicio estadounidense. Note that, in addition to Sweden, France was involved in keeping the FARC from being named as terrorists.
From Diario La Libertad (Barranquilla):The non-inclusion of the FARC on the part of the European Union on its list of terrorist groups shook the foundations of this democratic country, especially when its previous violence and disrespect for human rights have been repeated on an infinity of occasions by this subersive organization, the same as the other extremist associations that operate in Colombia. The government and other social sectors are right to have spoken about such an exception, forgetting the pain of thousands of compatriots that have been made victims of the criminal action of these groups acting at the margin of the law. Conmovió los cimientos del país democrático la no inclusión de las Farc por parte de la Unión Europea en su lista de grupos terroristas internacionales, máxime cuando los antecedentes violentos y de irrespeto a los derechos humanos ha sido reiterativo en infinidad de ocasiones por esta organización subversiva, al igual que las otras asociaciones extremistas que operan en Colombia. Tienen razón el gobierno y demás sectores sociales que se han pronunciado en torno a tal excepción, olvidando el dolor de miles de compatriotas que han resultado víctimas del accionar criminal de estos grupos actuantes al margen de la ley. Well good, faced with such a political circumstance, the world can observe today the grateful response that the FARC has given for the classification of the EU, with its confrontation against the autodefense forces in the area of Chocó, with one payment of more than 60 deaths, the majority of them members of the civilian population, who facing a crossfire were attacked when they took refuge in the church of Bojayá. If to this is added the use of cylinder bombs, cadavers filled with explosives, links with the narcotics traffic, incursions into neighboring countries, one can collect more proofs of what the terrorists are about. As long as there is no international solidarity with the Colombian government in this sense, there will be more conceits and incentive for the army of terrorism. Pues bien, ante tal circunstancia política, el mundo puede observar hoy estupefacto la respuesta de agradecimiento que las Farc le está dando a la calificación de la UE, con su enfrentamiento contra las autodefensas en una zona del Chocó, con un saldo que supera los 60 muertos, la mayoría de ellos miembros de la población civil, quienes ante el fuego cruzado fueron atacados cuando se refugiaban en la iglesia de Bojayá. Si a ello se le agrega la utilización de cilindros-bomba, cadáveres cargados con explosivos, nexos con el narcotráfico, incursiones hacia los países vecinos, se puede colegir que más pruebas de su finalidad terrorista sobran. Mientras no haya solidaridad internacional con el gobierno colombiano en este sentido, habrá más ínfulas e incentivo para el ejercicio del terrorismo.
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VENEZUELA
Cabinet changes: President Hugo Chávez made four changes in the upper reaches of his government over the weekend. Together they indicate the direction Chávez intends to take as he attempts to recover from his brief dismissal. That is to press ahead with the populist measures that got him into trouble in the first place. The Financial Times details the changes:Appointed planning minister was economics professor Felipe Pérez, who is "likely to represent a continuation of key elements of economic policy," says The Financial Times. Appointed as finance minister was Tobías Nóbrega, "a competent economist who favours tighter controls on the banking sector" in the paper's words. Neither of these appointments represents any break with the past. Both will try to reconcile the rising expectations of Chávez supporters, emboldened by their hero's victory, and slow but progressive economic deterioration, evidenced by slowing growth, capital flight, a large budget deficit and increasingly skittish foreign investors.
In a different way, the other two appointments also reinforce the notion that any change in direction is rhetorical only. Appointed minister of the interior and justice was Diosdado Cabello. Cabello is a fierce Chávez loyalist and until recently was vice president. So, at first blush, he seems to be taking a demotion. But, in his new post he will be in charge of the federal police. This obviously will be a critical post in the next crisis, and their will be a next crisis, since Chávez term lasts until 2007 while the economy won't. Appointed defense minister was armed forces chief General Lucas Rincón. The Rincón is interesting because it was Rincón who, in the early hours of April 12, told the nation that Chávez had resigned. El Sur has a brief excerpt from Rincón's testimony before the National Assembly committee investigating the April 11-13 period in which he explains his role. El Sur also has excerpts of El Nacional's summary tape of made of Chávez in captivity, in which Rincón's name comes up in an ambiguous context. So what's going on here? Odds are Chávez is kicking Rincón upstairs, acting on the maxim "keep your friends close and you enemies closer."
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Sunday, May 05, 2002
COLOMBIA
Another FARC attack: El Universal (Caracas, Ve.) reports on a FARC assault on Rovira, a municipality in the Department of Tolima, Colombia. Their goal--bank robbery.The FARC attacked our village with the intention of robbing one of the banks of the municipality and caused all sorts of destruction during the more than eight hours of the incursion. Lamentably, a police officer was killed and two civilians were hurt during the events," declared the mayor of Rovira, Rubén Andrade, according to AFP. "Las FARC atacaron nuestro pueblo con la intención de robar uno de los bancos del municipio y causaron toda clase de destrozos durante las más de ocho horas de incursión. Lamentablemente un policía murió y dos civiles fueron heridos en los hechos," declaró el alcalde de Rovira, Rubén Andrade, citó AFP. Just one example. These occur every day. Always the FARC. Who are not terrorists, according to the European Union.
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COLOMBIA
U.S. press evenhanded between murders and victims:
Here's the U.S. perspective:
"60 in Colombia Are Said to Die During Battles," New York Times (requires sign up).
"38 Children Among Victims in Colombia, Latin America: As many as 98 civilians were killed in battle between rebels and paramilitaries. Los Angeles Times.
Here's the Colombian:
"Genocido en Chocó," Diario el Pais (Cali).
"Civiles no murieron por enfrentamiento, fue una masacre dice Pastrana," El Colombiano (Medellin)
"45 niños entre víctimas de masacre de Bojayá," El Espectador (Bogata).
Meanwhile, there's no hesitation in the U.S. press to call a terrorist whoever is putting bombs in mailboxes in the Midwest.
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COLOMBIA
Alvaro Uribe Vélez profiled: Amidst all the mayhem, Colombia is conducting a presidential campaign; the election will be held May 26. The Colombian frontrunner is profiled in today's Miami Herald: Leftist rebels want to kill him, and they've already tried. Why do rebels want Uribe dead? The same reason most Colombians want him to be president--because he pledges to boost the military, double the size of the police force, and bring an authoritarian stance to bear against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), leftist guerrillas who have waged war here for 38 of Uribe's 49 years. He says he will fund the new and improved armed forces by launching his own offenses against government corruption, superfluous spending and tax dodging. And after three years of peace talks during which Colombians watched the FARC boost its troops, arsenal, drug stash and horde of kidnapping victims, surveys show Colombians think Uribe is the answer. He is the antithesis of current president Andrés Pastrana, whose relentless negotiations with the guerrillas ended abruptly Feb. 20. Colombians are tired of peace talks. They want action against the wave of bombings and killings plaguing their coffee- and coca-rich nation. For now, it seems they want Uribe, a hard-liner with a history of championing both social programs and civilian security squads. Uribe is a life-long politician and dissident Liberal Party member whose own father was murdered in 1983--allegedly in a botched FARC kidnapping attempt. In April polling, Uribe approached the 50 per cent needed to avoid a run-off and lead his nearest opponent by more than 20 points. When he's elected, the Swedes will no doubt want him declared the terrorist.
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COLOMBIA
It's the Swedes: According to El Tiempo, it's mainly the Swedes who were behind the European Union's refusal to call the FARC what it is, a terrorist organization.Another source reconfirmed that the original plan was to include the FARC as well as the paramilitaries (AUC). The majority of the European foreign ministries considered that the guerilla group is primarily responsible for the collapse of the peace process with the Pastrana administration. And facts like the kidnapping of Ingred Betancourt--among other attacks on the civil population--have weakened its image in the Old World, including among the ONG that before defended them "tooth and nail." Nevertheless, this all was ruined when reserves were expressed about the effect classifying the FARC as a terrorist group would have on the essence of the doctrine of the European Union in relation with Colombia, which can be summarized as: "the unique possbile end to the conflict is dialogue and political negotiation, and Europe will do everything possible to help produce that and overcome all difficulties. Sweden has been one of the countries most active in the recent peace process, in its territory it functions as the agency of notice to the FARC (Anncol) and significant sectors of opinion consider that the fight of the FARC is not terrorist but of liberation (emphasis added). Otra fuente reconfirmó que el plan original era incluir tanto a las Farc como a los paramilitares. La mayoría de las cancillerías europeas considera que el grupo guerrillero es el gran responsable del fracaso del proceso de paz con la administración Pastrana. Y hechos como el secuestro de Ingrid Betancourt--entre otros ataques a la población civil--han debilitado enormemente su imagen en el Viejo Continente, incluso entre las ONG que antes los defendían a "capa y espada." Sin embargo, todo se hundió cuando expresó sus reservas sobre el efecto que podría tener el calificar a las Farc de grupo terrorista sobre la esencia de la doctrina de la Unión Europea en relación con Colombia, y que se puede resumir así: "la única salida posible al conflicto es el diálogo y la negociación política, y Europa hará todo lo posible para ayudar a que este se produzca y llegue a buen puerto." Suecia ha sido uno de los países más activos en el reciente proceso de paz, en su territorio funciona la agencia de noticias de las Farc (Anncol) y sectores significativos de opinión consideran que la lucha de las Farc no es terrorista sino de liberación. This irresponsible and dishonest decision has received far to little coverage in the press outside of Colombia. Probably because most editors and reporters share the fundamental world view behind it: "no enemies to the left."
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COLOMBIA
FARC kills 45 children: The death toll in the FARC bombing in Bojayá, Chocó, Colombia has reached 108, reports El Espectador. Of the dead 45 were children, killed in a church. El Tiempo has a photo of a grieving family.
To repeat: The European Union just last week refused to include the FARC on a list of terrorist organization.
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VENEZUELA
Lucas Rincón testifies: General Lucas Rincón testified before the National Assembly's commissionn reviewing the events of April 11-13. It was Rincón who announced that Chávez had resigned. A report is in El Universal.
Essentially, Rincón's story is that he was not himself plotting to remove Chávez, but acted against Chávez to avoid a four-way civil war among his military and civilian allies and opponents."I am convinced that what was the fundamental was to avoid the spilling of blood, and more, a civil war," said the commander in chief explaining why, in the early morning of April 12, he announced to the country that the President Chávez had agreed to resign. "Estoy convencido de que fui factor fundamental para evitar el derramamiento de sangre y, a lo mejor, una guerra civil," dijo el comandante en jefe al explicar por qué, la madrugada del 12 de abril, le anunció al país que el presidente Chávez había aceptado la renuncia. Rincón suggests that he mediated some sort of agreement between Chávez and his military opponents, which permitted a conditioned resignation, and announced it, but that both sides later backed out.I told him (Chávez) that if what was materializing did occur there would be a confrontation and we could not imagine the consequences. Mr. President told me "I don't want bloodshed, not even one drop." We had information that there was a machine gun at Miraflores and that tanks would arrive. Then I gave him an approach to calming the situation. What we have here is a coup and it will not be a confrontation between military units but among civilians as well. I spoke of the resignation that was asked of him. This was in order to see if it quieted the situation. The President told be that he would always examine such a request and when it conformed with the Constitution and they complied with certain guarantees.....Afterward, I called again. The situation is worse. The officials gestured to me and asked me "when are you going to speak?" Then I told him that I would take the liberty of announcing the request...At this time, the coup plotters (golpistas() had accepted Chávez's conditions....I permitted myself to draft with my own hand the text that announced it with all responsibility in order to avoid a confrontation...It was a moral approach....After my conversation, the coup plotters denied the conditions and Mr. President he refused to resign." Le dije que si esto se materializa iba a haber un enfrentamiento y nos podemos imaginar las consecuencias. El señor Presidente me dijo 'no quiero derramamiento de sangre, ni siquiera una gota'. Teníamos información de que iban a ametrallar Miraflores y llevarían tanques. Entonces le hice el planteamiento para calmar la situación. Aquí lo que hay es un golpe y no será un enfrentamiento entre militares sino entre civiles también. Le hablé de la renuncia que se le solicitaba. Eso era para ver si se tranquilizaba la situación. El Presidente me dijo que estudiaría esa solicitud siempre y cuando estuviera apegada a la Constitución y se cumplieran ciertas garantías... Después volví a llamar. La situación está peor. Los oficiales me manoteaban y me preguntaban '¿cuándo va a hablar?'. Entonces le dije que me tomaría la libertad de anunciar la solicitud... En ese momento, los golpistas habían aceptado las condiciones de Chávez... Me permití redactar a mano el texto que anuncié con toda responsabilidad para evitar el enfrentamiento... Fue un planteamiento moral... Posteriormente a mi conversación, los golpistas negaron las condiciones y el señor Presidente se negó a renunciar." The questions of opposition legislators were directed at showing that Chávez initiated his ouster when he activated Plan Avila, El Universal says.
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Saturday, May 04, 2002
ARGENTINA
"Argentina's albatross is Péron?s legacy." So says blogger treasaigh, in a beautiful short editorial that ends this way:The man that has the will and the political clout to undo the wrongs that have been perpetrated on it has yet to step forward. Until he (or she) does the IMF and other world bodies are correct in not giving the corrupt and inefficient rulers of this country another cent.
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Friday, May 03, 2002
ARGENTINA
Duhalde in trouble: Last week President Eduardo Duhalde spent several days finding a new economy minister, getting the provincial governors to agree to a 14-point plan, containing items needed before the IMF will even consider aid, and--not least--saved his presidency. One week later, things look almost as tough as before.
1. The cabinet reshuffle didn't work. Reviewing the new members, two with union backgrounds, the English language Buenos Aires Herald says:Duhalde's new ministers neither offer a younger or more federal Cabinet nor even help to guarantee the 14 points agreed with provincial governors only 10 days ago. Yet none of the above seems to matter to Duhalde--his main aim was to boost government influence over a Congress holding back on the laws needed to coax from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) a few billion dollars which this wealthy country apparently cannot earn for itself. Yet there is every reason to fear that with these latest Cabinet changes Duhalde will alarm the establishment even further while gaining little ground in Congress, trade union circles or anywhere. Since Cabinet Chief Alfredo Atanasof, Interior Minister Jorge Matzkin and (Labour Minister Graciela) Camaño have 32 years in Congress between them, Duhalde might imagine himself closer to the heart of Congress but he is only more its hostage--the rise of trade unionists only brings him nearer to wage-push inflation. In short, the kind of step forward which can send him over the cliff. 2. As to the unions, a dissident faction of the CGT has already called a one-day strike and mobilization for May 14, reports La Nacion. The action was approved unanimously at a congress of the militant faction (fracción combativa) of the CGT.In the meeting, which met in a climate of open opposition to the Duhalde administration, the CGT rebels ratified their refusal to accept Argentina's "submission" to the demands of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The congress decided moreover "to reject" the 14-point accord signed by the president and the provincial governors for betraying "an undignified and irresponsible attitude that compromises the future of the country." En el cónclave, que sesionó en un clima de abierta oposición a la administración duhaldista, la CGT rebelde ratificó el rechazo que hace al "sometimiento" de la Argentina a las exigencias del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). El Congreso dispuso además "rechazar" el acuerdo de 14 puntos firmados por el presidente y los gobernadores provinciales por tratarse de "una actitud indigna e irresponsable que compromete el futuro del país." The demonstration will include a march on the Plaza de Mayo, site of demonstrations that toppled Duhalde's immediate predecessors Fernando de la Rúa and Adolfo Rodríguez Saá.
3. Duhalde's new economy minister, Roberto Lavagna, is in a public spat with the consumer and competition secretary (secretario de Defensa de la Competencia y del Consumidor) Pablo Challú, reports Télam. It matters for two reasons--Lavagna's important and the subject over which the two are battling is important. Lavagna provided the Duhalde government with needed credibility, when he was appointed to replace Jorge Remes Lenicov. He still does, and will, so long as his own credibility isn't sucessfully assaulted by secondary figures. What the two ministers are fighting over is price controls; Challú's for them, Lavagna opposed. Lavagna has apparently suggested Challú resign:Asked if Lavagna had in effect asked for his resignatio Challún indicated that "we had a conversation along these lines." Consultado sobre si efectivamente Lavagna le pidió la renuncia, Challú señaló que "tuvimos una conversación en ese sentido." But, Challú told Télam, he was appointed by the president and would only resign at his request.
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COLOMBIA
Non-terrorists kill 100+: The Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), which the European Union just this week declined to label as "terrorist" killed more than 100 people at Bojayá, report El Espectador (Bogata) and El Pais (Cali).
The EU's decision to deny the obvious truth about the FARC was noted in El Sur yesterday.
The victims were among hundreds of people attending a religious ceremony in the central square of Bojayá, which is in the department of Chocó, when a tank of gas stuffed with dynamite was detonated."The information that we have is that all were civilians," indicated the official (Jorge Caicedo, secretary of the government of Chocó) and added that thirteen of those injuries were grave and that the injured ought to be transferred to more advanced medical centers. "La información que tenemos es que todos son civiles," señaló el funcionario y añadió que trece de los heridos son graves y que los lesionados deben ser trasladados a centros médicos más avanzados. "The situation is very critical. We have made a call to the national government to ask them to please give us a hand in this situation. We need humanitarian help," affirmed Caicedo. "La situación es bastante crítica. Hacemos un llamado al Gobierno nacional para que por favor nos den la mano frente a esta situación. Necesitamos ayuda humanitaria", afirmó Caicedo.
Possibly the European Union might lend a hand.
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CHILE
Unemployment concern: Unemployment is a growing concern in Chile, reports the Chilean business paper Estrategia. Economists project that the rate, currently at 8.8 per cent for the January-March quarter, could reach 9.8 per cent by the end of August. Year-to-year comparisons look a bit better than the more recent record. In addition, the problem appears not to be so much one of fewer jobs as one of more workers, though jobs have indeed been lost.While, in relation to the same period of 2001, the number of people working increased by 2.2 per cent (115,990 people). Thus, it was the increase in 12 months of the work force by 2.1 per cent (123,500) that explained the continuation of unemployment at elevated levels. Mientras, en relación a igual lapso de 2001, la cantidad de personas ocupadas aumentó en 2,2% (115.990 personas). Así, fue el avance en doce meses de la fuerza de trabajo en 2,1% (123.500) el que explicó la mantención de la desocupación en niveles elevados. La Tercera notes other projections suggesting double-digit unemployment later in the year.Last year the government intended to brake without success the rising trajectory of the unemployment rate in the months of winter with an injection of about 155,000 emergency employment posts. This year, the effort will be at similar levels (some 160,000), but the focus will be different: prioritized will be the subsidy of the hiring of manpower, where the private sector will be an important participant in the creation of jobs. El año pasado el gobierno intentó frenar sin éxito la trayectoria alcista de la tasa de desempleo en los meses de invierno con la inyección de alrededor de 155 mil empleos de emergencia. Este año, el esfuerzo será de niveles similares (unos 160 mil), pero la orientación será distinta: se priorizará el subsidio a la contratación de mano de obra, donde el sector privado será un actor más importante en la creación de empleo. Chile is the success story for "neo-liberal" policies in Latin America. Its successes and its problems both have huge implications for Latin American development.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Deterioration: An item from Bloomberg shows the country's continued economic decline. April tax revenue fell 18.5 per cent from a year earlier. The week-long "bank holiday" was one factor.
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Thursday, May 02, 2002
VENEZUELA
Carmona testifies: Pedro Carmona Estanga, Venezuela's interim president during the brief departure from power of Hugo Chávez, testified before the National Assembly commission that is investigating the events of April 11-13. Carmona's testimony is reported in El Universal."I did not conspire, there was no coup, there was no rebellion." "No conspiré, no hubo golpe, no hubo rebelión." Carmona insisted that what was produced was a "power vacuum" after the inspector general of the national armed forces, general Lucas Rincón Romero, indicated publicly to the country that the high command had solicited the resignation of the President Hugo Chávez and that the leader had accepted. Carmona sostuvo que lo que se produjo fue un ''vacío de poder'' luego de que el inspector general de la Fuerza Armada Armada Nacional, general en jefe Lucas Rincón Romero, señalara públicamente al país que el Alto Mando había solicitado la renuncia del presidente Hugo Chávez y que el mandatario la había aceptado. "The authorities abandoned office before the announcement of the resignation of the President," he indicated. "I have been an opponent, but a conspirator never," he insisted. "Never was the resignation of the president in my hands," I accepted much later. ''Las autoridades abandonaron el poder ante el anuncio de la renuncia del Presidente,'' indicó. ''He sido opositor, pero conspirador nunca,'' insistió. "Nunca tuve la renuncia del presidente en mis manos," aceptó más tarde. Carmona did not reveal the identity of the person that called him the early morning of the 12th of April to ask him to assume the interim presidency in the absence of the president nor who granted the office in the meeting that was held with the general staff of the armed forces at the army command and that preceeded the pronouncement that was made at five in the morning the same day. Carmona no reveló la identidad de la persona que le llamó la madrugada del 12 de abril para pedirle que asumiera la presidencia interina ante la ausencia del presidente ni quien le otorgó el cargo en la reunión que sostuvo con el el generalato de la Fuerza Armada en la Comandancia del Ejército y que precedió el pronunciamiento que hiciera a las cinco de la mañana de ese mismo día. Carmono always spoke instead of a "collective" of persons, El Universal reports. Carmona would also not reveal the author of the decree of the interim government that, among other things, dissolved the National Assembly and most of the country's other political offices, and was much criticized for it. He also denied having contact with the previous president, Carlos Andrés Pérez, who is in exile in the Dominican Republic. Finally,Carmona rejected completely any the participation of foreign groups or governments in the events of the 11th of April. He said that he did not receive demonstrations of support from foreign governments, as these "were evaluating the situation," before pronouncing themselves on it. Carmona negó de forma Carmona negó de forma sistemática la participación de grupos o gobierno extranjeros en los sucesos del 11 de abril. Dijo que no recibió manifestaciones de apoyo de gobiernos extranjeros, pues estos "estaban evaluando la situación" antes de pronunciarse.
. . .
EUROPE AND LATIN AMERICA
No enemies to the left: The European Union has inserted itself into Colombia's guerilla war, reports El Tiempo, on the side of the guerillas. Putting together its list of terrorist organizations, the EU chose not to include the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), despite the fact that FARC is the aggressor, and uses kidnapping (including of a presidential candidate), bombing (including of a presidential candidate) and assassination as everyday tactics. The EU did include the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC), which was formed in response to the depredations of the FARC. The EU did leave open the possibility of declaring the FARC to be a terrorist organization at a later date. Right.
. . .
VENEZUELA
Taped! El Nacional and El Universal both give accounts of a video tape of Hugo Chávez while in custody on April 13. The tape was obtained and broadcast by Globovisión.
On the tape:
1. Chávez acknowledges activating Plan Avila, a plan to defend the presidential palace against popular insurrection with troops and armor. This practice has been very controversial since the military fired on demonstrators during street protests in 1989. But, he says, his military chiefs were very reluctant to activate the plan. From El Universal:I ordered Plan Avila in the morning. I ordered (General Manuel) Rosendo and he hid from me. I told (General) Lucas (Rincón) and he told me: one must think about it. One must think about what?, I said to him." "Yo ordené en la mañana el Plan Avila. Le ordené a Rosendo y se me escondió. Se lo dije a Lucas y me dijo: hay que pensarlo. ¿Hay que pensar qué?, le dije" The opposition has repeatedly cited the activation of Plan Avila as evidence that Chávez planned a violent crack down on the opposition's April 11 demonstration.
2. Chávez justifies ordering Plan Avila, because, as he sees it, the demonstration is cover for a coup. From El Nacional:"I have the authority to do it, when I was informed by the intelligence agencies of the armed forces and the DISIP (police intelligence) of the plan of insurrection that was in progress... ?Yo tengo potestad para hacerlo, cuando me enteré por órganos de inteligencia de la misma Fuerza Armada y de la Disip, el plan de insurrección que estaba en marcha... 3. Chávez discusses what will happen and where he will go, possibly to Cuba. From El Nacional:The colonel explains to him what he must do and gives assurances that he will be taken overseas, to which Chávez responds: "I have a fear...I, if I am going to Cuba or where I decide, for security. Cuba would be a possibility. Here many people have not understood that no longer am I (thinking about) myself, it is (about) the people. I proposed this night, decided it and the general (Raúl) Baduell told me "you did not give yourself up," and all the leadership betrayed me. Cowards and traitors!" El coronel le explica lo que tiene que hacer y después asegura que lo llevarán al exterior a lo que Chávez responde: ?Tengo un temor...yo sí me voy a Cuba o a donde yo decida, por seguridad Cuba sería una posibilidad. Aquí mucha gente no ha entendido que ya no soy yo, es el pueblo. Yo propuse esa noche, lo decidí y el general Baduell me dijo ?no te rindas? y todo el Alto Mando me traicionó. ¡Cobardes y desleales!? 4. Chávez has maintained that at no point did he resign. Conversation caught on this tape backs him up. From El Nacional's summary: One time the colonel reiterated to Chávez what he would have to do, the chief of state answered that he could refuse to obey, since it is clear, he would continue being the constitutional president. "Just leave me here seated. I am going to meditate, and good, if I am imprisoned, it's OK. I stay imprisoned here but I am not obligated to go away..." Una vez que el coronel le repitió a Chávez lo que debía hacer, el jefe de Estado le respondió que podría haberse negado a obedecerlo, pues según deja en claro, seguía siendo el Presidente constitucionalmente.
?Sencillamente déjame aquí sentado. Voy a meditar, y bueno, si estoy preso; está bien. Yo sigo preso aquí y no estoy obligado a irme..." Please excuse the translation. It is of a summary of a tape of conversations.
. . .
Wednesday, May 01, 2002
ARGENTINA
Duhalde denies he will resign: La Nacion and Clarin both report that Duhalde is upset at criticism from some leaders of his Peronist party "who explain on television 'how in four days they did big things,' but 'bolted like rats when the Argentine situation pressured them'" ("quienes explican por televisión 'cómo en cuatro días hicieron grandes cosas' pero 'dispararon como ratas cuando la situación argentina los apremió.'" He added that he will not resign"I will not abandon Argentina in the same way that I would not abandon a child of mine that has problems. No abandonaré a la Argentina de la misma manera que no abandonaría a un hijo mío que tiene problemas. Duhalde spoke at a union May Day event. The papers said his comments were in response to remarks made by his immediate predecessor, Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, who left office after two weeks amidst violent demonstrations (which some allege were part of what amounted to a coup).
Need it be said: Anyone who finds it necessary to reject the idea resigning, is either considering resigning or believes others are considering it for him. Otherwise, why would the idea even cross his mind?
. . .
VENEZUELA
Rival demonstrations big and peaceful: Competing May Day demonstrations have been organized by the pro-Chávez Bolivarian Workers Front (Frente Bolivariano de Trabajadores) and the opposition Venezuelan Workers Confederation (Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela). According to the commissioner of the metropolitan police, Henry Vivas, "as of this moment all is developing without any kind of problem..." ("hasta el momento todo se está desarrollando sin ningún tipo de problema..." reports El Nacional.
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VENEZUELA
Unreconciled and absent: Returning to power, Hugo Chávez promised a kinder, gentler government. For one thing, he created a presidential commission to promote and coordinate a national dialogue. Not everyone invited has been willing to participate, reports El Nacional.Among the 40 members that compose the commission, in the Salón Ayacucho of the Miraflores Palace, there were not leaders of Fedecámaras (the business organization whose president served as interim president) the CTV (national labor union), political parties nor communications media directors. Entre los 40 miembros que integran la comisión, en el Salón Ayacucho del palacio de Miraflores no estuvieron los dirigentes de Fedecámaras, la CTV, los partidos políticos ni directivos de los medios de comunicación. Speaking for a few minutes at the opening session, Chávez expressed his displeasure at the absences, reports El Universal.The chief of government denounced those sectors of the opposition that reject the national dialogue and don't stop insisting on a unconstitutional end. "There are disturbing elements. They are actors that are capable of thinking of insisting on an extra constitutional ending." El jefe del Gobierno denunció que sectores de la oposición se niegan al diálogo nacional y no dejan de insistir en una salida inconstitucional. "Hay factores de perturbación. Son actores que podrían estar pensando en insistir en una salida extraconstitucional." Although Chávez has called for reconciliation and dialogue and has made a few gestures in this direction--including this commission--there is little evidence that he plans to modify his statist, populist policies in any significant way. Unconvinced of his sincerity, the opposition is unwilling to lend credibility to feel-good events that serve mainly to rehabilitate Chávez. They clearly prefer to test their strength on the streets today, instead. And in Venezuela's current situation, head counts from the street are more important than talking heads in Miraflores.
. . .
VENEZUELA
Competing marches: Opposition to President Hugo Chávez will be publicly tested for the first time since the failed coup of April 11-14. The measure of the opposition's strength will be the turnout at today's May Day march, called by the national labor union, the Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela (CTV), reports Bloomberg.Chavez's opponents called on Venezuelans to join the traditional May Day march by the country's largest labor organization as a protest against Chavez and his government's policies. The government is also organizing a march and rally that will pass just blocks away from the route of its rival. Leaders at the Confederation of Venezuelan Workers, who say they represent 1 million workers, expect at least 100,000 people onto the streets Many civic groups opposed to Chavez are expected to participate, with leaders calling on their followers to wear black armbands in memory of 12 protesters who were killed in the April 11 protest march that preceded the coup. The march followed a nationwide strike spearheaded by the CTV.
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ARGENTINA
Rural view: Agricultural organizations suspended a week-long strike, planned for this week, ostensibly out of respect for the country's new economy minister, Roberto Lavagna. But they are not happy, reports the AgReport website for April 26. The site quotes the Argentine Rural Society (SRA), as follows:The legal system in general and democracy in particular are violated. The elemental principles of a pacific and civilized coexistence are sacrificed day to day. Private property is no longer respected and is increasingly desecrated. Personal security experiments a progressive deterioration. Acquired rights and legal guarantees are constantly dishonored. The National Constitution is dead. Taxes are increasingly confiscatory. Anarchy demolishes the social order. The waste of limited public resources is an insult to intelligence. Political ethics are lacking. Legal arbitrariness multiplies our doubts and worsens our uncertainties.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Optimism Returns: The Argentine press has taken on an optimistic tone this week. The crisis, they seem to think, is over.
La Razon, for example, headlines one story: "New signals of support come from the United States," and "Washintgon again praises the transition of the Duhalde government and reasserts its predisposition to help." ("Llegan nuevas señales de apoyo desde EE.UU."and"Washington volvió a elogiar los últimos pasos del gobierno de Duhalde y ratificó su predisposición a ayudar.") The story reports U.S. Treasure Secretary Paul O'Neill's comments on Argentina last night on NBC.
La Nacion, meanwhile, seems almost celebratory, headlining one item: "The dollar closes below $3. ("El dólar cerró por debajo de los $ 3.) Never mind the fact that this is a third of what the peso was worth at the beginning of the year.
In fact, the situation last week was not as bad as it looked. And the situation this week is not as good as the local press seems to believe.
Last week's crisis was touched off when Jorge Remes Lenicov finally burned out. First Duhalde rejected his plan to slow the bleeding of deposits from banks by requiring savers to negotiate the entire appeals process before banks could be forced to honor court-ordered withdrawls. (See El Sur.) Then Duhalde's substitute Bonex plan--converting savings to bonds--was rejected by national legislature. This, combined with the refusal of Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia to inject new money into its Argentine subsidiary, forced the government to close the banks for a week. (See El Sur and El Sur.) At about the same time, Duhalde began talking about re-establishing a fixed exchange rate. Finally, Remes Lenicov heard nothing but complaint about all this from the IMF and the USA, he resigned. (See El Sur.)
Remes Lenicov's resignation touched off the crisis. Duhalde met with legislators and Peronist state governors to come up with a plan and interviewed several candidates for to replace Remes Lenicov, finally selecting Roberto Lavagna. (See El Sur.) Lavagna promptly, recommended--and Duhalde promptly accepted--essentially the measures proposed by Remes Lenicov and that led to his resignation when they were not accepted. (See El Sur.)
In short, Argentina is back where it was two weeks ago, before the crisis blew up. The only change for the better is that Argentina now has economy minister with fresh energy. The country is still out of money and still counting on a foreign bailout.
. . .
Tuesday, April 30, 2002
VENEZUELA
New economic minister Apparently moving to make promised changes to his cabinet, Hugo Chávez is ready to name a new economic team, reports El Mundo, quoting official sources. To be named finance minister is economist Francisco Rodríguez, whose negative view of the country's financial situation was noted yesterday in El Sur. Among other things Rodríguez said the Venezuelan state is "broke."
Others to be named are Felipe Pérez Martí as planning minister and businessman Miguel Pérez Abad as minister of production and commerce. El Mundo says "the new ministerial team...will have the challenge of facing a difficult fiscal situation and restoring confidence in the Venezuelan economy" ("del nuevo equipo ministerial...tendrá el reto de afrontar la difícil situación fiscal y rescatar la confianza en la economía venezolana").
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CHILE
Chile-U.S. free trade: The Financial Times wonders: Will the just signed free-trade agreement between Chile and the European Union spur efforts to complete a treaty between Chile and the U.S.?The Chile agreement, which is likely to be the first bilateral free trade deal concluded by the Bush administration, is being considered by the US Congress as the template for a host of future trade agreements, including a planned Free Trade Area of the Americas. As a result, it has become embroiled in divisive congressional fights over how labour rights and environmental standards should be incorporated into trade agreements, and whether private companies should have free rein to sue governments for restricting trade. Tom Daschle, Democratic majority leader in the Senate, and Max Baucus, chairman of the Senate finance committee, warned last month that failure to write labour and environmental standards into the Chilean agreement would jeopardise congressional support for Mr Bush's coveted fast-track trade negotiating authority. The problem here is U.S. politics. The labor, environmental and anti-globo left, which effectively controls Democratic Party, insists on labor and environmental conditions that make a free-trade treaty impossible in practice. The Bush administration has been unwilling propose labor and environmental provisions because they know they can't negotiate, ratify and implement a treaty containing them with Chile. At the proposal stage, Chile would almost certainly view such conditions as unreasonable assertions of U.S. extraterritoriality, and so deal-breakers. In the unlikely event such conditions did make it into a draft treaty they would either 1) cause its defeat in the U.S. Senate (if the conditions were cosmetic), or 2) render it impossible to implement (if the conditions had teeth). The Bush administration is equally unwilling to propose a treaty without such conditions, because if it did so it would start a very big, very public fight with the Democrats, something the administration is determined to avoid.
The risks of the Bush administration's strategy are put forward in a column by Andres Oppenheimer in Sunday's Miami Herald.In recent weeks, I have heard growing numbers of top Latin American officials--including some of President Bush's best friends in the hemisphere--complain about the U.S. failure to offer carrots to bankrupt countries such as Argentina or to help more promising nations such as Mexico and Chile become role models for the rest of the region. (Ignore the very bad idea delaying reform in Argentina by again subsidizing its bad habits.) The U.S. paralysis in Latin America -- which is as much the fault of the Bush administration as of the Democratic-controlled Senate--could hardly come at a worse time. After more than two decades of relative stability, several political and economic crises are rocking the region. These are Colombia's worsening guerilla war, Venezuela's increasing polarization and Argentina's financial self-immolation. At a lesser level of crisis, Oppenheimer says, is the perceived failure Vicente Fox's special relationship with George W. Bush to bring concrete results.And Latin America as a whole is wondering whether Bush will succeed in convincing the Senate to pass a ''fast-track'' bill to expedite a 34-nation agreement to launch a hemisphere-wide free trade area by 2005. A Senate vote on the issue could come as early as Tuesday and, if approved, the bill would go to the full Congress. Sure, the Bush administration says it remains fully committed to the region-wide free trade agreement and is pressing Senate Democrats to pass it. But skeptics wonder--rightly--why a U.S. president with a 75 percent approval rating has not spent more of his political capital on an issue that he has defined as a top priority of his foreign policy agenda. The answer to that is U.S. midterm politics, as briefly described above. Time will tell whether the Bush administration's strategic decision to duck fights with the Democrats is a wise one. It all depends....Do the Republicans do well in the November elections, winning back the Senate especially?...Does everything, meanwhile, more or less stay together in Latin America (and other now-backburner areas) until the elections are over? All unknowable today.
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VENEZUELA
Army in charge? President Hugo Chávez has begun reshuffling high-level posts in his government. For example, Vice President Diosdado Cabello, an organizer of the "Bolivarian circles" street gangs, has been replaced with Defense Minister Jose Vicente Rangel. Although Rangel too is a Chávez loyalist, the government is attempting to portray the changes as gestures of conciliation directed at the regime's many opponents. An analysis by the Financial Times suggests something else entirely.Mr Rangel's move from the defence ministry to the vice-presidency suggests sectors within the military high command are now calling the shots behind President Chavez, according to analysts. The armed forces supported Mr Chávez's return to power two days after he was unseated by a military coup, but laid down conditions for their help. The Financial Times suggests that the real purpose of the change is to rid the military of Rangel, a civilian, whose appointment a year ago was resisted in the military, because of "his alleged sympathies towards Colombia's leftwing guerrilla groups, his antipathy towards the US, and his accusations of corruption in the military during his previous career as a journalist."
The paper hints that Cabello is being moved to another post in the government to lower the profile of the "Bolivarian circles."
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ARGENTINA
High interest:Argentina's central bank paid a record 95 percent interest rate to sell 61 million pesos ($20.7 million) of 15-day bills yesterday to help shore up the currency, reports Bloomberg.com. The auctions are aimed at soaking up some of the currency the country is printing to finance a budget deficit and prop up banks. The last time Argentina did a couple weeks ago the rate was 75 per cent.
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Monday, April 29, 2002
VENEZUELA
Money low: The National Assembly's economic advisor, economist Francisco Rodríguez, says that the Venezuelan treasury is bankrupt (quebrado) and that the government should turn to multinational organizations to refloat the economy, reports El Universal.'"The Venezuelan state has no money, it is broke. The treasury is at 14 per cent of its normal level, extremely low (a level)," declared Rodríguez to the station Unión Radio. "El Estado venezolano no tiene dinero, está quebrado. La tesorería está a un 14 por ciento de sus niveles normales, (un nivel) sumamente bajo," declaró Rodríguez a la emisora Unión Radio. The country's deficit is at a historic high, reaching seven per cent of gross domestic product (Producto Interno Bruto or PIB). The article continues: Rodríguez classified as socially dangerous the government's strategy of delaying the payment of its obligations in order to control the deficit, citing the fact that there are regional governments that "have not received money in two months, and that in almost a year the universities and national museums have not received even one bolivar." Rodríguez calificó de socialmente peligrosa la estrategia gubernamental de retrasar el pago de sus obligaciones para enfrentar el déficit, al citar que hay gobiernos regionales que ''no han recibido dinero en dos meses, y que en lo que va de año las universidades y museos nacionales ha no recibido ni un bolívar." "This situation is unsustainable for the state," argued the economist, and he repeated that of the "few alternatives" that the country has to meet the crisis, the most convenient is "to sit down to speak with the multilateral organizations, like the International Monetary Fund," something that the government has not contemplated until now. "Esta situación es insostenible para el Estado," agregó el economista, y reiteró que de las "pocas alternativas" que tiene el país para enfrentar la crisis, la más conveniente es "sentarse a hablar con los organismos multilaterales, como el Fondo Monetario Internacional," algo que el gobierno no ha contemplado hasta ahora. This cannot be advice Chávez wants to hear. Any agreement with the IMF will require Chávez to curb the populism that helps him maintain support among the nation's poor. Still, doing nothing is only an option if Chávez wants to preside over a domestic depression. Obviously, the Venezuelan treasury's cash shortage does insure that Venezuela will maintain, if not increase, oil production.
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DOLLARIZATION
Panama shows the way: "Dollarization," is when a country's only currency is the U.S. dollar. It's close cousin is the "currency board," which is when a country keeps its own currency, but backs it with dollars, one-to-one. These measures have been recommended as ways to quiet the financial chaos that plagues many developing countries, especially in Latin America. They are also highly controversial.
Now, proof of their efficacy appears in an item in the Latin Business Chronicle. The article isn't about dollarization or currency boards, it is about the Milken Institute's Capital Access Index, which measures availibility of capital to entrepreneurs around the world. But the item shows the value of dollarization, nonetheless.
In Latin America, Chile is at the top (29th worldwide) of the index, as expected. But just behind it is Panama (34th worldwide), a big surprise, until one considers the following: Thanks largely to only using the U.S. dollar during its entire 99-year history, Panama has been able to maintain one of the lowest inflation rates in Latin America and one that often has been lower than that of the United States itself. In addition to hosting one of Latin America's top international banking centers, Pamama also boasts a relatively large number of domestic banks. And since the dollar is the legal currency, the country's central bank has limited authority, it neither prints money nor owns or bail outs local banks. The part in that last sentence, about how the state can't print money or bail out banks in a dollarized economy, explains why dollarization remains deeply unpopular among Latin American political elites and has been installed only when they've completely discredited themselves. Dollarization limits what political leaders can do, and they don't like it. Argentina's Eduardo Duhalde, for example, has said he would resign before he dollarizes the economy. On the other hand, the public generally approves, since one primary effect of dollarization is to protect the savings of people who don't have the wherewithall to spirit them to Miami. Argentina's public loved that country's (modified) currency board system, which was blown apart at the end of last year.
Two of dollarization's most important advocates are economists Kurt Schuler and Steven Hanke. Their work, some of which focuses specifically on Argentina, is available at the Currency Boards and Dollarization website.
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VENEZUELA
Bolivarianism = Peronism: Did Hugo Chávez spend his two days out of the office studying Argentine economics? It's beginning to look that way.
In the most recent broadcast of his radio program, ¡Aló, Presidente!, El Universal reports, Chávez annnounced that, in conjunction with the previously announced increase in the minimum wage, the government will decree a 60-day ban on discharging employees (inamovilidad laboral). The wage increase and firing freeze apply to government and private business. (The article in El Universal contains estimates of the cost to each). Small business and rural employers can meet the increase in two steps.
1. While the decree pretends to stop firings, it will instead stop hirings. Employers hire only reluctantly when hiring means a lifetime commitment.
2. So much for the supposedly chastened, cooperative, willing to compromise Chávez who was returned to office two weeks ago. This is left-wing populism pure and simple.
3. Though initiated before the failed coup, this measure will be seen as rewarding the Bolivarian circles and other Chávez loyalists. It will undoubtedly increase Chávez's popularity short-term, especially among his lower ncome supporters. But, short-term is the operative phrase. As with most such populist measures, the immediate fix will be followed by an hangover. And, as noted here before, Chávez has five long years left in his term. So he (in addition to the Venezuelan people) will pay for this excess.
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Sunday, April 28, 2002
CHILE
Good News! One country that infrequently appears in the news (and in El Sur) is Chile. That is because, in comparison with its South American neighbors, Chile is successful, prosperous and untroubled. As a result, it doesn't make much news foreigners would find interesting. Now it has.
According to Bloomberg, Chile has signed a trade agreement with the European Union.Chile has spent 15 years opening markets abroad for wine, fruit, commodities and other goods and government officials are betting on free trade agreements to rekindle an economic expansion that's slowed in the last four years. The EU hopes the agreement will accelerate free-trade talks with Latin America's biggest trade bloc, Mercosur, which includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.
"I would like to think that this agreement with Chile will be the first step toward other agreements that we have to make as a region with Europe,'' Chilean President Ricardo Lagos said.
Best of all, it will be more difficult for the protectionists in both U.S. parities and the anti-globo leftists who lead the Democrats around by the nose to block free trade with Latin America. The U.S. will have to deal to remain competitive. The Bloomberg piece continues:Chile expects in the next few months to reach a free-trade agreement with the U.S., its second-largest trading partner after the EU, helping boost exports that account for 42 percent of the country's $69 billion economy. Once that deal is signed, Chile plans to start free-trade talks with Singapore and other Asian countries, Lagos said in a news conference. Chile's El Mercurio, meanwhile, reports that Chilean President Ricardo Lagos' is confident the agreement will be approved by the legislature. The biggest problem with the accord from a Chilean perspective appears to be the sections on fishing, reports El Mercurio.
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ARGENTINA
Does this really still work?: Hilda González de Duhalde knows well what she wants. It what she wants is to enter history as the woman capable of advancing what few governments achieved since Perón: effective social assistance for the most necessary sectors. Hilda Hilda González de Duhalde sabe bien lo que quiere. Y lo que quiere es pasar a la historia como la mujer capaz de llevar adelante lo que pocos gobiernos lograron desde Perón: una efectiva asistencia social para los sectores más necesitados. The article in La Nacion goes on in this vein, fawning over this low-rent Evita. But Chiche, as she's called, doesn't like this comparison. (Yeah, right.)The feminine cabinet, in exchange, is made up of the women of various states that control everything that carries the adjective social. Of course: the first lady does not like to be compared, herself or her collaborators, with the mythic Eva Perón. "This was another political and historical moment. More than the practice of giving assistance, we concentrate on education and health," she said, when people probe about the parallel. El gabinete femenino, en cambio, esta integrado en su totalidad por mujeres de variadas edades que controlan todo lo que lleve el adjetivo de social. Eso sí: a la primera dama no le gusta que la comparen, ni a ella ni a sus colaboradoras, con la mítica Eva Perón. "Ese era otro momento político e histórico. Más que asistencialismo, nosotras nos concentramos en la educación y la salud", dice, cuando la tientan con el paralelismo. Amazing.
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Saturday, April 27, 2002
ARGENTINA
New man, old plan (sorta): - Pagina12/WEB describes the new economy minister's plans. These are to limit the peso's free-float against the dollar and convert savings into bonds. It was the legislature's failure last week to pass a law converting savings into bonds (the Bonex plan) that stimulated the last economy minister's resignation.
Though neither of these initiatives is new, there are wrinkles. On convertability, the government will not fix a peso-dollar ratio, but will establish upper and lower boundaries between which the currencies can float. As to Bonex, the plan apparently is to give them a coupon that will make them worth holding.
It is doubtful that either of these will work. For example, what happens if the dollar rises beyond the band? Who will sell dollars to bring it down? The central bank? They may say so now, but in the event, very unlikely. In theory there should be an interest rate high enough to induce individuals to hold the Bonex bonds. In practice, given constant government's decrees repudiating its own contracts, and allowing others to repudiate theirs, there may not be. The answer to this question will be known quickly. Last week demonstrators scared the senate out of even considering it.
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ARGENTINA
The problem in a paragraph: Here is one paragraph from Friday's Wall Street Journal (International section, no link). The story is no big deal, just a report on the (at the time rumored) appointment of Roberto Lavagna as economic minister and the possible reintroduction of a dollar-peso link, but this one paragraph reveals everything you always wanted to know about Argentina's problems.Argentines widely supported the previous currency peg, known as convertibility. But the current government lacks the credibility to make such a system stick, economists said. Additionally, under convertibility, the Central Bank was barred from printing money to finance the government and was required to stash away one dollar in hard-currenty reserves for every peso in circulation. Any move to readopt a pegged exchange rate wouldn't incorporate those two conditions, the aide (to President Eduardo Duhalde) said. That's not convertibility, it's fantasy. How can they possibly expect a three-to-one dollar-peso ratio to hold while the government prints pesos as it sees fit? Who is going to sell people one dollar for three pesos? Does the central bank plan on throwing its reserves away that way?
If Duhalde and his new, supposedly sophisticated economic minister actually go ahead with this, there is only one possible outcome: First, there certainly will very soon be an unofficial price for the dollar, set by the market, that has nothing to do with three pesos. Second, there may be a few central bank sales at three-to-one, but only for purposes and to people the government deems vital to the national interest--importers of critical materials, cronies, relatives.
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Friday, April 26, 2002
COLOMBIA
Uribe drops, still leads in poll: The Colombian candidate most committed to combatting the FARC guerillas lost supprt in the most recent poll of voters, according to El Tiempo. But, Alvaro Uribe Vélez's support, at 47.7 per cent, is still good for a 20 point lead over his nearest opponent, Horacio Serpa, who received 27.3 per cent. Uribe has lost more than 10 points since the last poll in February. The gains corresponding to Uribe's losses were spread out among opponents.
Under Colombia's electoral system, a candidate needs 50 per cent or more to avoid a run off. The poll tested Uribe's support in a run off against his opponents and found him winning easily against all.
The poll of 1400 voters was conducted for El Tiempo, the review Semana, and RCN radio and television.
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ARGENTINA
Banks open, sorta: Yahoo! News - Reuters reports that Argentina's banks are opening on a limited basis.Banks reopened for five hours Friday afternoon -- but only for bill payments and deposits from anyone who retains faith in the mostly foreign-owned banks, which have hemorrhaged deposits and notched up billions of dollars in losses for their owners. Bet they got lots of deposits.
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VENEZUELA
Interesting slant: A story from Yahoo! News - AP points to a little remarked, but important, element in the Venezuelan conflict: race."They (the opposition) don't like Chavez because he's black, he's Indian, and they're white and beautiful," said Hugo Salvador, a 60-year-old advertising employee. He stood amid a jostling crowd of fellow "Bolivarian Circle" members who shouted, "We're the poor, the ones who have always been kicked around." Most Venezuelans find the "Bolivarian" rhetoric offensive, given the relatively easy coexistence--outside of politics--among the nation's mixed-blood population. But supporters of Chavez's 3-year-old administration like his speeches demanding better distribution of Venezuela's oil wealth. "The children of recent immigrants have gotten rich, formed exclusive white ghettos, and have a certain feeling of disgust for the rest of the population," said Guillermo Garcia Ponce, who holds the title of Director of the Political Command of the Revolution in Chavez's government. Venezuela did indeed attract a large immigration from Italy and Spain in the 1950s, when Spain was stagnant, Italy in turmoil, and Venezuela enjoying the fruits of an oil revenue boom. Wealth from mineral extraction is always a problem; it lends itself to income and social extremes (see examples as various as 19th Century West Virginia and "modern" Saudi Arabia). Chávez could leave no worse legacy than race consciousness where none existed before. Garcia Ponce insisted that "there is nothing in our ideology that would lead to socialism," despite Chavez's close ties with Cuba's Fidel Castro and his tacit support for leftist guerrillas in neighboring Colombia. Note how Yahoo! News - AP's easily accepts as fact an allegation that Chávez himself vehemently denies. "This is not some imported ideology. It's something we invented here. It's Biblical-Bolivarian thought," said circle member Romulo Mendez, 46. The spread of what is called "Bolivarian thought"--which blurs the distinction between Chavez's Fifth Republic Movement party and the government--worries many. Before the coup, Chavez proposed allowing circle committees to inspect schools and fire teachers at will. "Bolivarian thought" is being taught at "Bolivarian schools." It is important to recall that Chávez is not popular in Venezuela, as is shown by a recent poll noted in El Sur two days ago. His loyalist core, in fact, is about 3 per cent of the population, according to the poll. It is this part of the population from which the "Bolivarian circles" are drawn.Leopoldo Puchi, whose small leftist party broke with Chavez because of Chavez's intolerance, said the president chose Bolivar to give a non-Marxist, nationalist face to his own ideas. Chavez's political machine "has achieved very few concrete economic proposals, so all its energy has been channeled into the accumulation of power," Puchi said. The low intellectual level of Bolivarianism will limit his appeal, as is indicated by the reaction of Leopoldo Puchi, just above. It also limits his appeal among North American sandalistas.
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ARGENTINA
IMF part of the problem: Mary Anastasia O'Grady, in The Wall Street Journal's "Americas" column examines Argentina's future under, and perhaps after, late-Peronism. She is firmly in the camp of those who believe that only complete collapse of the "generations-old corporatist economic model" that is "deeply embedded in Argentine culture and reflected in its politics" will permit the "intense national soul-searching" that is needed if reform is to take deep root. So,It's too bad the IMF won't just stay out of Argentina. Without IMF meddling or hovering in the wings, the highly capable Argentine people would find a way to reconcile their fiscal accounts. They'd also be forced to design trade, labor and regulatory policies that encourage the creation of wealth. IMF interference--whether it's the lure of a deep pocket safety-net, or bad advice--will only distrot domestic politics and make such reform more difficult. That is just the bottom line. The whole piece is excellent. Unfortunately, it is not on the Net.
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ARGENTINA
Last chance Peronist party leaders believe they have just one more chance before elections will have to be called, reports La Nacion.This is the reason why no (state) governor accepted a post in the (national) government and only supported a 90-day plan, the success of which is not asssured. Es ésa la razón por la que ningún gobernador aceptó un cargo en el Gobierno y sólo lo respaldaron en un plan de 90 días, sobre el que no se animan a asegurar que tendrá éxito. Although no governor called for Duhalde's resignation,The chief of state believes that to leave his office will only mean that the country is jumping into the void, according to what he told La Nacion last night... El jefe del Estado cree que dejar su cargo sólo significará que el país dé un salto al vacío, según le dijo anoche a LA NACION... In the end, 72 hours of meetings between Duhalde and the Peronist governors resulted in the appointment of Roberto Lavagna, an economist and current ambassador to the Eurpoean Union, as Economic Minister, replacing Jorge Remes Lenicov. La Nacion reports this entire series of meetings somewhat breathlessly and in unnecessary detail. The only real news emerging from this mafia summit is that Duhalde is nearing the end and few of his associates want to be with him when he gets there.
If there are elections, the next government is likely to be far left.
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ARGENTINA
Still stealing?: Dead Dictator Juan Perón's last wife is in trouble in Spain, reports La Nacion. María Estela Martínez de Perón was brought into court in Spain by the Fundación por la Paz y la Amistad de los Pueblos, which "accuses her of improperly retaining more than $6 million dollars." ("la acusa de retener indebidamente más de 6 millones de dólares.") The fight is over the former dictator's inheritance.
FUNPAZ says everything Perón left belongs to it, under his will and with her agreement in writing. However, FUNPAZ claims, she received and kept money given her during the presidency of Peronist Carlos Menem, in settlement of a claim against Argentina. Making the foundation's claim is its founder, Mario Rotundo, who happens to be ex-secretary to Mrs. Perón ("Isabelita," as she was known, in imitation of her more famous predecessor "Evita"), which suggests this is something of a family fight dressed up as charity. Any why not? Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
Mrs. Perón, who was her husband's vice president during his second term, 1972-1974, assumed the presidency of Argentina upon his death in and held it for two catastrophic years, until she was overthrown in 1976 by the military, who proceeded to create a catastrophe of their very own. She spent five years in prison in Argentina, before removing permanently to Spain in 1981.
And who's the thief here? Whichever one wins the court case.
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Thursday, April 25, 2002
ARGENTINA
View from the country: Reading all the news reports detailing the plans and decrees handed down by President Eduardo Duhalde and his Peronist pals, it's easy to forget that these things affect real people in the real world. A small window into the damage these politically driven, practically ignorant impositions can do is provided by the AgReport website for April 19.The most important harvest is about to be cropped, but Argentina is going through a shortage of diesel fuel, and producers observe with concern the possible answers that the government will offer to oil companies. Meanwhile, this week, transporters are on strike as a protest for the high prices they must pay for fuel, that is if they can get a hold of any. The request by agricultural producers and transporters seems quite basic, but the current national crisis continues to tumble even the most elemental suppositions.
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ARGENTINA
U-Turn x 2:
U-Turn #1: Last week, resigned Economic Minister Jorge Remes Lenicov proposed to slow the flow of funds out of frozen savings accounts by requiring that court orders releasing funds not be operative until all appeals by banks are exhausted. Duhalde rejected this proposal then, in favor of the Bonex plan to convert savings into five- and 10-year bonds. Then Bonex failed and Remes Lenicov resigned.
Today, reports Bloomberg, the national legislature passed the required-appeal legislation Remes Lenicov wanted last week."This law is vital; it won't fix Argentina's tragedy, but it at least allows banks to exist,'' said Dario Lewkowicz, a fund manager with Exprinter Administradora in Buenos Aires who managed $35 million before the government defaulted on debt and devalued in January. He wouldn't say how much he manages now. "This law should not be interpreted as a definitive solution for the problem of leakage of funds from the banks, but rather as a stop-gap measure,'' ABN Amro analysts Fernando Losada and Claudio Maulhardt said in a research note. The government closed banks Friday as cash reserves were being depleted after depositors used court injunctions to pull as much as 350 million pesos ($112 million) a day. And that's the little U-Turn. Here's the BIG one:
U-Turn # 2: One of the first things Eduardo Duhalde did on assuming office in January was to cut the one-to-one, dollar-peso link. The currencies had been linked for some 12 years; when first made, the link tamed run-away inflation and set the stage for nearly a decade of growth. Now, Duhalde is considering re-linking the dollar and peso, this time at three pesos per dollar.
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ARGENTINA
Commentary:
1. Political Analyst Rosendo Fraga in La Razón:Immediately, Duhalde will try to reorganize his cabinet, but he will find it difficult to achieve this in a form that ends the crisis. In a climate of strong economic uncertainty and growing social conflict, the current administration only has the capacity to prolong the agony not to resolve the crisis. En lo inmediato, Duhalde intentará reorganizar su gabinete, pero difícilmente logre hacerlo de forma de revertir la crisis. En un clima de fuertísima incertidumbre económica y creciente conflicto social, la actual administración sólo tiene capacidad para prolongar la agonía pero no para resolver la crisis. Fraga believes Duhalde will soon be obliged to call a new presidential election.
2. Economic analysis by Juan Alemann, also in La Razón: When Remes Lenicov returned from Washington empty-handed and the Argentine Senate refused to accept his plan to keep savers' funds locked in banks, he was finished, says Alemann.It is understandable that Argentina does not now enjoy much sympathy in the world. The declaration of default, as if it was a great triumph, applauded with fervor by the Congress, is a grave event. It is also the violation of contracts with public service businesses based in the countries from which it asks help, that the government put in an insolvent condition, by means of high debts in dollars and tariffs frozen in pesos.
Es comprensible que la Argentina no goce actualmente de mucha simpatía en el mundo. La declaración del default, como si fuera un triunfo, aplaudido con fervor por el Congreso, es un hecho grave. Lo es también la violación de contratos con empresas de servicios públicos originarias de los países a los que se pide ayuda, a las que el Gobierno colocó en situación de insolvencia, por altas deudas en dólares y tarifas congeladas en pesos. 3. From blogger T.L. Wilson, an American in the Paris of South America, in his treasaigh.com.Things are bad and the people in charge are corrupt and incompetent. It is impossible to see how, staring into the abyss as this country is, the national government can not come to agreement with the provinces or with the unions or the other sundry groups that represent some sub-sector of society or the other. It is the actions of the leaders of this country which show what is wrong here... and it is them. 4. From the English-language Buenos Aires Herald:Anything could happen and nothing is happening as chaos deepens. But what can be expected without any new economy minister in sight and with a president who boasts of his ignorance of economics? President Eduardo Duhalde seems ready to consider any ministerial candidate and any economic policy although he seems at a loss when it comes to deciding which. The only course he does not seem ready to contemplate (despite some hints from senators yesterday) is calling for immediate elections. Duhalde is very welcome to prove us wrong but there is no indication that he has the least clue of how to hold things together. In a scenario where the lack of confidence is so much more decisive than any tangible or material asset, elections would have the virtue of forcing a shattered leadership and a people devoured by systematic suspicion into a relationship of trust with each other.
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Wednesday, April 24, 2002
VENEZUELA
Chávez support falls: A new poll reveals that only 21% of Venezuelans have confidence in the leadership of President Hugo Chávez. El Universal contains a complete report.
El Universal also has a Chart showing the country's declining confidence in Chávez. The poll classifies Venezualans into four groups, according to their attitudes toward the president: antichavista, 37.5%; decepcianados (the deceived), 31%; chavista tolerante, 18.5%, and talibán (get it?), 13%.
Asked to assess how things are going in the country, Venezuelans generally responded negatively.Only 22.3% of Venezuelans believe that things are going well in the country. This number last year was about 30.4%. Sólo 22,3% de los venezolanos cree que las cosas están yendo bien dentro del país. Esta cifra el año pasado se ubicaba en 30,4%. According to the poll, the country's biggest problem is unemployment. The public has confidence in the universities, the church and the media (which Chávez has often attacked).
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VENEZUELA
Was Chávez prepared to have troops fire on public? There is no question that President Hugo Chávez ordered ordered implementation of "Plan Ávila," the military's plan to protect the government if public order breaks down despite the efforts of the police and national guard, during the big April 11 demonstration. There are tapes to prove it, reports Reuters. The question is, what did he want the to do?Opponents of the left-wing former paratrooper, including military officers who staged a short-lived coup against him this month, said the tapes indicated Chavez had been prepared to use military force against civilian demonstrators. "In which other country, and in what kind of mind, is it conceivable that a peaceful demonstration by citizens would be quelled with weapons of war, with tanks?" National Guard Gen. Luis Camacho Kairuz told reporters. But Chavez's current armed forces chief Gen. Lucas Rincon denied this had been the intention, saying the troops and tanks deployed had not acted against the demonstrators but were called out to prevent sabotage and guarantee public order. According to El Universal:Nevertheless, Lucas Rincon assured that "Plan Ávila is not to maltreat or repress the population" but to guarantee security,prevent sabotage and the disturbance of public order," he informed Venpres. No obstante, Lucas Rincon aseguró que ''el Plan Ávila no es para maltratar o reprimir a la población'' sino para garantizar la seguridad, prevenir saboteos y la alteración del orden público'', informó Venpres. The tapes, which have been played over Venezuelan media, record Chavez ordering the military out of the barracks and into the streets. But, they do not appear to contain a, shall we say, smoking gun.
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ARGENTINA
Farther to fall, say Uruguayan economists: El Pais interviews Uruguayan economists and finds them unanimously believeing that Argentina has farther to fall and that the fundamental problem is political, not economic."It is clear that the coalition that is now governing cannot take the country forward because they are partly responsible for the current disaster. Argentina needs to fall one or two rungs more, because it needs to begin at zero in many aspects," he (Michele Santo) said. "Es claro que la coalición que está gobernando actualmente no puede sacar el país adelante porque son responsables de parte del descalabro actual. Argentina necesita caer uno o dos escalones más, porque necesita empezar de cero en muchos aspectos", opinó. "What exists in Argentina is an institutional and political crisis, not a question of the person that is the head of the Economic Ministry. For example, an agreement with the provinces to reduce their fiscal deficit is a political question," she (Mercedes Rial of KPMG) indicated. "Lo que se vive en Argentina es una crisis institucional y política, no se trata de la persona que esté al frente del Ministerio de Economía. Por ejemplo, un acuerdo con las provincias para reducir su déficit fiscal es una cuestión política", señaló. Gabriel Oddone, investigator for the Center of Economic Investigations (CINVE), said that the fall of the Argentine minister reveals that "the political system cannot trace a clear and coherent direction in order the leave the crisis. This is an enormous political problem." Gabriel Oddone, investigador del Centro de Investigaciones Económicas (Cinve), expresó que la caída del ministro argentino revela que "el sistema político no puede trazar un rumbo claro y coherente para salir de la crisis. Este es un problema político mayúsculo." These read as epitaphs for the Duhalde regime.
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ARGENTINA
Full circle: Clarin quotes government spokesman Aníbal Fernández saying that President Eduardo Duhalde intends to replace resigned Economic Minister Jorge Remes Lenicov and to reveal a new fixed-rate financial plan today.The official confirmed moreover that the dollar will be "anchored" in a fixed value, that would be between 3 and 3.50 pesos, and that the bank freeze will continue until the Senate approves a new law covering the corralito. He insisted moreover that for now the only resignation Duhalde had accepted, from
the members of the cabinet, was that of Jorge Remes Lenicov. El funcionario confirmó además que el dólar será "anclado" en un valor fijo, que estaría entre los 3 y 3,50 pesos, y el feriado bancario continuará hasta que el Senado apruebe una nueva ley contra el corralito. Aseguró además que hasta ahora la única renuncia que Duhalde aceptó, de los miembros del Gabinete, fue la de Jorge Remes Lenicov. Just three months ago this same government held that a floating exchange rate was the way out of the country's problems.
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COLOMBIA
War: The public face of the Irish Republican Army, Gerry Adams, is refusing to testify in the U.S. Congress about links between the Irish terrorist group and the Colombian terrorist group FARC. His lame excuse, reports Reuters: "he refused in the interests of Northern Ireland's peace process." For its part, the congressional committee that wants him to talk, is not mincing words: In a preview of its findings after a nine-month investigation, the House of Representatives Committee on International Relations said on Tuesday the IRA had operated as part of an international terror network that trained Marxist FARC guerrillas in southern Colombia. The House committee launched the investigation after three suspected IRA members were arrested in Bogota on August 11 and charged with training rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Traveling with false passports, they allegedly spent weeks in an enclave controlled by the FARC. In its preview, the House committee said the IRA, along with Iranians, Cubans and possibly members of the ETA Basque separatist group, had been training the rebels, said to be deeply involved in the drugs trade. To this, the IRA's own Sergeant Schultz says "I know nothing, nothing."Adams said he had been on holiday when the IRA members were arrested and "didn't even receive the news about their arrests for three or four days afterwards." Sandalistas: IRA terrorists aren't the only foreigners doing their best to make Colombia's already daunting problems worse. The country also seems to be facing a plague of peaceniks. AP (via The Las Vegas Sun) reports on one such adventure.American college professor and peace activist Bernard Lafayette came to Colombia hoping to meet with Colombian rebels. He got his wish--and almost wound up being kidnapped by them. Lafayette, along with a state governor and several Colombian priests, was leading a march of almost 1,000 peace activists to an embattled mountain village when they were stopped Sunday by rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. Knowing the idiot they'd kidnapped is a useful idiot, the FARC let him go.But the FARC continue to hold Antioquia state Gov. Guillermo Gaviria, and former Defense Minister Gilberto Echeverri, who were spirited deep into the mountains on horseback. Echeverri serves as the governor's peace adviser. In addition to the two last named, the FARC continues to hold presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt, a dozen state legislators, five members of the national parliament, about 40 government troops and a former Cabinet member, Fernando Araujo.
Upon being freed, Lafayette proceeded Medellin to lead a conference on nonviolence. With him at the conference, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mairead Corrigan Maguire of Ireland. It looks like the heroes of the struggle for peace in Ireland, like the heroes of the struggle for Ireland, are looking to foreign fields now that the home conflict appears on the way to settlement.
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Tuesday, April 23, 2002
ARGENTINA
Production falls: Industrial production continued to fall in March, reports La Nacion.Industrial production in March fell 19.7 per cent with respect to the same month last year and 7.1 per cent from February, in the seasonally adjusted measurement, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) today. La producción industrial en marzo cayó 19,7 por ciento respecto a igual mes del año pasado y 7,1 por ciento contra febrero, en la medición estacionalizada, según confirmó hoy el Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censo (Indec). How could it be otherwise with a government that refuses to respect private property rights and steals every loose dollar. Customers can't buy with cash, because their funds are tied up in the account freeze. They can't buy with credit, because no one's extending it (repayment not being enforced). Companies can't import parts, because their foreign suppliers can't be sure of getting paid. Foreign banks won't reliquify their subsidiaries, because anything they put in will be grabbed. If Argentines want a functioning economy they need to get a government and legal system that respects property and enforces contracts, even those in the other guy's favor.
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ARGENTINA
Fatalism: Today's Pagina/12WEB contains this quote from President Eduardo Duhalde:
If the situation arrives in which the legislators evade the wishes of the executive, "the banks will open all the same and what will be is what God wants," said the chief of state, in perfect harmony with the demand of the banks. Llegado el caso de que los legisladores eludan los deseos del Ejecutivo, "los bancos igual abrirán, y que sea lo que Dios quiera," dijo el jefe de Estado, en perfecta sintonía con el reclamo de los bancos. Pagina12 is a leftist paper. Here's where they're coming from: Amidst an economic earthquake, the big banks have declared war. En medio del terremoto económico, los principales bancos se declararon la guerra.
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ARGENTINA
Big news: It's overall strategy coming undone, the Duhalde government is in danger of collapse. To review: That strategy was to make cosmetic changes and whatever promises it took to get the IMF to turn on the cash spigot.
With IMF funding seemingly no closer than when Duhalde took over in January, and temporizing measures like the account freeze (installed by the previous government, it must be said), pesification and devaluation reaching their inevitable dead ends, Duhalde seems out of ideas and out of time.
Evidence he's out of ideas is that his latest scheme to keep savers' cash in the banks is a repeat of a much hated scheme from the 1980s (called Bonex) to turn savers cash into "bonds." Evidence he's out of time is that his government has begun resigning.
Economic Minister Jorge Remes Lenicov resigned first, La Nacion reports. (Last week, when the minister wasn't getting his way on solutions to the banking crisis, El Sur said: "The question is, is Remes Lenicov considering resigning?" Today he did.) The resignation came after the Argentine Senate refused to consider the Bonex plan this afternoon.
Later in the day, reports Clarin, the Chief of Cabinet, Jorge Capitanich, and the Minister of Production, José Ignacio de Mendiguren, also resigned.There are still no names of possible successors for the officials, whose resignations were presented with an indeclinable character. Todavía no hay nombres de los posibles reemplazantes para los funcionarios, cuyas renuncias fueron presentadas con carácter indeclinable. Meanwhile, La Nacion reports, Duhalde met with provincial governors, legislators and others on the crisis. La Nacion also reports that Duhalde himself has no plans to resign, according to his spokesman Eduardo Amadeo.
Reuters reports includes the following comment:"The only thing helping Duhalde here is that no one else wants his job. On the one hand, nobody wants Duhalde to do anything, but nobody wants him to leave, either," said Christian Stracke, emerging market debt strategist at Commerzbank.
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VENEZUELA
Compromise: Recent announcements and actions suggest that things are simmering down in Venezuela. Two questions: Are real compromises being reached? Or, compromises apparent and temporary only, until Chávez obtains complete control? Answers should emerge relatively quickly in two critical areas. The answers from these two will likely provide the answer to the above questions.
1. April 11 shooting deaths: Reuters reports that Chávez has ordered a probe into the killings of April 11. Tape reportedly exists that shows one instance in which Chávez partisans shot into the anti-Chávez demonstration. Witnesses report other instances by known Chávez associates. While promising an investigation, Chávez continues to claim that it was his side that was victimized: Chavez has already denied any responsibility in the killings. "Me, a murderer?" he asked at a news conference one day after he was restored to power. His ministers say pro-Chavez militants were among those killed. In short, it remains to be seen whether the investigation will be fair and place the blame where it belongs, wherever that is, even if that is, as evidence so far suggests, on Chávez partisans.
2. State oil company control: One of the first things Chávez did upon his return was remove the chief executive and directors of Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), whom he had just appointed, helping trigger the nationwide lockout/strike of April 9. The executives and employees of the state oil company considered them cronies, without the qualifications necessary to run the company. He has since appointed as company president (and board member) Ali Rodriguez, currently OPEC secretary general and formerly Venezuelan energy minister. Rodriguez was reportedly accepted by PDVSA staff because he is an expert. Now, reports Bloomberg News, Chávez has appointed the remaining board members. They are: Jorge Kamkoff, a PDVSA vice-president (held over from the prior board); Jose Rafael Paz, president of PDVSA's petrochemical subsidiary; Ludoviko Niklas, executive director of exploration, production and refining;Nelson Nava, president of PDVSA's natural gas unit; Clara Cloro, an adviser to Energy Minister Alvaro Silva; Arnoldo Rodriguez Ochoa, a retired Army general (held over from the prior board); andHugo Hernandez Rafalli, president of Venezuela's Petroleum Chamber. Clearly this is an insider group. To that extent, the victory would seem to have gone to the PDVSA demonstrators. Still, it remains to be seen what, if anything, they had to agree to get the deal. And, as noted in El Sur last week, PDVSA's leaders have agreed to abide by Venezuela's OPEC-mandated production quota and the hyrdrocarbon law, which restricts investment and is widely credited with sending foreign oil companies elsewhere.
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VENEZUELA
Opposition wants more than talk: Since his return to power, President Hugo Chávez has talked reconciliation between his government and the opposition. Now, reports The Financial Times, the opposition is demanding concrete steps to back up his words with deeds."One of the things President Chávez has to sort out for the nation to really believe he is sincere in his call for dialogue and national unity is that he must dismantle most, if not all, of his Cabinet," said anti-Chávez union leader Manuel Cova. Another diehard foe of Chávez, Caracas Mayor Alfredo Pena, called on him to form a new "national salvation" Cabinet and give priority to relations with the United States, the main buyer of Venezuelan oil.
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ARGENTINA
No reform, no aid: A column in Latin Business Chronicle by Ana Eiras, Latin America Policy Analyst in the Center for International Trade and Economics at The Heritage Foundation, urges no international aid for Argentina until that country's government reforms. Only profound reforms of Argentina's economy, political system, and judiciary can begin to restore the people's trust and set the country on the path to recovery. Eiras says the newest aid-getting strategy of the government of President Eduardo Duhalde is raise fears that a lawless Argentina might become a terrorist haven.This new strategy is politically smart but economically unwise. It reveals, however, how far Argentine authorities will go to avoid reform. The column links to a Heritage Foundation Briefing Paper on Argentina, in PDF format.
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Monday, April 22, 2002
ARGENTINA
Bank run stops banks running: Argentina's financial crisis has reached a new stage. The government of President Eduardo Duhalde has closed the country's banks until further notice. The bank "holiday" is intended to stop further court-ordered withdrawls of funds from the banks, until the government can gain legislative approval of a plan to convert savings in frozen bank accounts into 5-year (peso) or 10-year (dollar) bonds. This is very unpopular. Today's Wall Street Journal (no link) has a front-page article on the crisis and the "Bonex" solution, as its called.The announcement Friday night capped a chaotic week in which renewed outflows from Argentina's battered banks, many owned by European and U.S. parent companies, heightened fears that Latin America's third-largest economy would be unable to avoid a wholesale collapse of its financial system. What's really going on here is a slow-motion bank run. As savers carrying court orders have retrieved millions of dollars daily from their banks, the government has sought measures to stop the withdrawls. Last week, Duhalde rejected a proposed law that would have permitted banks to appeal such court orders.
On Friday, a crisis point was reached. Scotiabank Quilmes SA ran out of money and was closed when the parent company, Bank of Nova Scotia, refused to recapitalize it.Friday afternoon at the headquarters of Scotiabank Quilmes...dozens of desperate depositors--stepping around leaflets dropped by a bank employees' union saying, "Canada, Fork Over the Money"--formed long lines in hopes of retrieving funds. Scotiabank blamed its problems on the government's currency devaluation and refusal to provide emergency funds.A spokeswoman indicated the bank had no interest in pumping money into its Argentine unit until the government dealt with the larger crisis. "We are not able to entertain any capital injection until there are clear rules for the system," said spokeswoman Diance Flanagan. And that is the problem in Argentina. No clear rules. No rules any government of Argentina feels bound to obey. Even the IMF doesn't believe them anymore."The IMF has no faith in the Duhalde regime--zero," said Walter Molano, head of research at BCP Securities in Greenwich, Conn. "What the IMF is doing is saying, 'We'll just wait you out.'" From the beginning, the Duhalde government's strategy has been to promise what they had to to get the money, then to meet their commitments, or not, as convenient. Early on it looked as if that might work. Now that's not so clear. Increasingly it appears that the IMF is stringing Duhalde and company along, never granting assistance, never denying it, always demanding a few more reforms that would be ever more difficult to make--if Duhalde had any intention of honoring an agreement. At first, Duhalde promised Argentines an agreement and cash infusion in February. Then it was March; then it was April (when the IMF's Anoop Singh visited); now it's May. But, just this weekend, according to The Journal article, rather than accept a national government promise to limit local spending, the IMF has begun to insist that every province sign an accord in which they agree to limit it. Needless to say obtaining these signatures will be very difficult. Even the asking will be an unpleasant exercise for the Duhalde government.
The Journal notes that the Bonex plan is likely to be taken to court as well.Economist Aldo Abrain of the consulting firm Exante termed the plan unconstitutional. He added, "I think the likelihood that this government won't complete its term is growing."
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Sunday, April 21, 2002
ARGENTINA
A successful coup II? Now it's Domingo Cavallo who is saying the President Fernando De la Rúa was pushed out of office last December in a coup, according to a report of his courtroom testimony in La Razón. De la Rúa himself had made that charge in testimony reported by La Nacion and Clarin on April 15 (and noted in El Sur). Essentially, the allegation is that conspirators in both the then-governing Radical Party and the now-governing Peronist party encouraged on-going demonstrations against the De la Rúa government to turn violent then allowed, until De la Rúa quit.
Cavallo also told the court that he is certain that De la Rúa's successor, Adolfo Rodríguez Saá was the victim of a coup. Rodríguez Saá resigned after a week in office facing almost constant violent protests and riots. And he named names:He said that those most guilty of the taking down the ex-leaders were "the president of the Radical Party, the governor of Chacao Angel Rozas, and the Radical Deputies Leopoldo Moreau and Jesús Rodríguez." Dijo que los principales culpables de las caídas de los ex mandatarios fueron "el presidente del radicalismo, el gobernador chaqueño Angel Rozas, y los diputados radicales Leopoldo Moreau y Jesús Rodríguez." It is interesting that he names only Radicals; is he curring favor with the current Peronist government by exculpating it even as he attempts to establish that there was a coup, revenging himself on Radical opponents? Cavallo's wife, Sonia Abrazian, has also testified to this effect. Former President Carlos Menem previously made similar charges to Chilean newspapers.
Domingo Cavallo was the last Economic Minister in De la Rúa's government and had previously held that office under former President Carlos Menem. Cavallo's work under Menem was celebrated; by the end of his service with De la Rúa he was widely reviled.
As to the truth of the allegation: First, this would not be out of character for Argentina politics. Second, while demonstrations have continued since Duhalde took office, none has had the scale, purposefulness or violence of those that toppled De la Rúa and Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, this despite the fact that the Duhalde has presided over continued failure and decline. So, yes, it's entirely possible that these allegations are true.
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LATIN AMERICA AND THE U.S.
Protectionism No! Latin American countries attending the IMF conference in Washington formally asked the developed countries to end protectionism, reports El Universal (Bogata).
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, Peru's economic minister, spoke for Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, Perú and Uruguay at the meeting. He particularly focused on subsidies by developed countries' governments to their agricultural sectors. Kuczynski said that the countries he was representing are convinced that access to the markets of the rich countries is the "most effective" way to achieve development, but that until now this has not been possible becaure of protectionist measures. "The support to agriculture in the developed countries is concentrated in a small number of operatons. It costs $350 billion a year, or six times the total amount of assistance" from the industrialized world for the developing world, he said. Kuczynski dijo que los países en cuya representación habló están convencidos de que el acceso al mercado de los países ricos es la manera "más efectiva" de lograr el desarrollo, pero que hasta ahora esto no ha sido posible por medidas proteccionistas. "El apoyo a la agricultura en los países desarrollados está concentrado mayormente en un pequeño número de agricultores. Cuesta 350 mil millones de dólares al año, o seis veces el monto total de la asistencia" del mundo industrializado para el mundo en desarrollo, señaló. Protectionism in the U.S. and Europe is a big barrier to development in the world's poorer countries. Protectionism makes it difficult for the developed countries to credibly excoriate Argentina, for example, for failing to reform.
In one of the most ominous developments to emerge from the 1990s, protectionism is no longer the sole province of companies seeking to protect domestic markets and labor unions seeking to protect domestic jobs. The cause has been taken over by western leftists, environmentalists and anti-globos, none of whom wants to see poorer countries prosper by following the capitalist or new-liberal model. These groups are extremely influential in U.S.'s Democratic Party, which controls U.S. Senate, through which any free-trade legislation and treaties must go. It is hard to see how significant trade liberalization can occur while these political conditions exist in the U.S.
This is a scandal.
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