El Sur

2004-05-08T03:44:00.000-07:00

Democracy Now: "Robert Kagan and William Kristol "

2003-01-30T07:49:00.000-08:00

BRAZIL
Trouble in Paradise: Fractures between left and right have already begun to appear in Brazil's Workers Party, just a month after new Workers Party President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office. According to Bloomberg.com, quoting the Brazilian paper Correio Braziliense, da Silva has ordered members of the party to stop disputing publicly and maintain unity. The issue agitating the party is whether or not to service Brazil's $300 million foreign debt.

Party members critical of the government include Sen. Heloisa Helena, who has proposed putting International Monetary Fund officials on trial for crimes against humanity.

Helena and other party members have criticized Lula's pledges to cut spending, overhaul the pension system, implement central bank autonomy and pay the nation's debt.

Here is a classic problem for leftist parties that come into power. aaaa

2003-01-30T07:43:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Personal View: Priscilla West, an American who came to work for PDVSA, the state oil company, shortly after Hugo Chávez took office, chronicles the country's decline, in the Christian Science Monitor:

In the office, now-wavering Chávez supporters grew quiet. As corporate directors were replaced by Army generals, we began to receive questionable decrees from above. In vain, PDVSA executives refuted such mandates as to supply Cuba at special pricing and "indefinite" credit terms - despite arrears exceeding $30 million. Paranoia was building at all levels of the organization as even routine business decisions had to be defended against an overtly hostile "boss" with no industry background or business experience whatsoever.

The government was also sending new clients our way. These "businessmen," from countries including Libya and Colombia, had no knowledge of the petroleum trade. Basic industry jargon drew confused expressions. With no real intention to receive oil cargoes, they bid prices so far above market level that the numbers seemed typographical errors.

One memorable client, whom we nicknamed "Señor Leche En Polvo" (Mr. Powdered Milk, his primary business) managed to slip through all the filters. Unable legally to refuse his bid to buy a tanker of gasoline, managers awarded him a cargo. Predictably, no tanker ever arrived at the load port, causing production losses at the refinery. Some employees suspected PDVSA was being used to launder money via these illegitimate transactions.

2003-01-17T07:52:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Oil production: El Universal reports that production in Venezuela is 484,000 barrels per day. Yesterday, President Hugo Chávez said production had reached a third of pre-work action levels (see immediately previous post), which is on the order of one-third of pre-job action levels. On the other hand, it appears to be up slightly from previous non-government estimates.

2003-01-16T11:13:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Numbers:

1. In New York to meet with United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, President Hugo Chávez says Venezuelan oil production has returned to about one-third pre-work action levels, reports Bloomberg.com.

Strikers and industry analysts have disputed government figures on oil production.

2. In a second article, Bloomberg.com notes that Venezuela's currency, the bolivar, has fallen to a record 1,761 to the dollar and that Venezuala's central bank has suspended its daily sale of $30 million in U.S. dollars. The reason:

"What's going on right now is a speculative run on the bolivar based on rumors and nervousness," Planning Minister Felipe Perez said late yesterday on the state television station. "The rumor that we plan exchange controls has been criminally planted for political objectives."

The key pharase here being "exchange controls."

3. According to the Financial Times,

Venezuela this year faces the most serious economic collapse in its history because of lost oil output and escalating political tension, bankers and analysts warned on Tuesday.

BSCH, the Spanish bank, said that it expects the economy to contract by 40 per cent in the first quarter and by at least 9 per cent this year. It described the situation as the "biggest [example of] wealth destruction in Venezuelan history".

The contraction could potentially be as deep as 30 per cent, BSCH added, given that for every month that passes without a political solution to reactivate the oil industry the economy will shrink by an additional two percentage points.

Venezuela's economy declined by nine per cent in 2002; since Chávez took office, Venezuela's economy has declined 18 per cent.

The article also says, in contradiction to Chávez, above, that the state oil company, PDVSA, is producing about 400,000 barrels of oil per day.

Alí Rodríguez, the PDVSA chief, said this week that oil production would return to pre-strike levels by the end of February. Most oil industry observers say such a forecast is unrealistic, however. In the most optimistic of scenarios it will take two to four months from the day PDVSA employees return to work to ramp up output to 90 per cent of previous levels.

4. Even if the government gets oil production going with replacement workers and managers, it will face a continuing problem getting product out of the country, reported the Wall Street Journal (International Section, no link) on Tusdeay. The problem:

Most of the tankers that moved PdVsa's oil before the strike are staying away because of the chaotic condition ov Venezuela's ports...

Sincor, a joint venture between Total-FinElf SA and Statoil ASA with exports 150,000 barrels a day of crude oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast, has refused to load ships since the military took over a privately operated oil terminal on Dec. 15. Joris De Smet, Sincor's manager, said the joint venture has concerns about the personnel that took over the terminal, which is normally operated by Williams Cos., Tulsa, Okla, and Enbridge Inc.

"For the time being we don't see that there is a safe situation to load ships," said Mr. De Smet. A spokesman for the Williams/Enbridge consortium said its insurers had canceled its liability coverage because of a lack of harbor pilots and because the terminal had been "militarized."

The problem of obtaining insurance for tankers calling at Venezuelan oil ports has previously been noted in El Sur, here, here and (as early as December 17) here.

2003-01-15T07:07:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
War of attrition: Venezuela's nationwide work stoppage has settled into a war of attrition. A month ago, when the work action was a week or so old, there were several possibilities. It seemed probable that the opposition couldn't sustain an extended work action. In the alternative, it seemed possible President Hugo Chávez would be forced to accept a non-binding, advisory referendum on his performance. A vehicle to dress up either side's defeat as a compromise was available--the talks mediated by Organization of American States Secretary César Gaviria.

A month later it is clear that Chávez and the opposition are willing and able to sustain the conflict to and through Venezuela's collapse into complete chaos. The opposition has sustained the work action for 40-plus days, growing stronger not weaker. And Chávez has made it abundantly clear he will concede nothing.

Meanwille, Gaviria and the OAS have achieved nothing. Neither the military nor the courts has been willing and able to establish rules that would force the fight to a conclusion. The military keeps the sides apart in the streets, tear-gassing opposition protesters on Monday and Chavista demonstrators on Tuesday, keeping the conflict at a fever pitch, without offering resolution. The Supreme Court decides against anything that would tip the balance: Chávez can't prosecute officers for rebellion or take over the (opposition led) Metropolitan Police; the opposition can't have an advisory referendum.

This last item is today's big news from Caracas. El Nacional and El Universal both report today that the Supreme Court has suspended the February 2 consultative referendum, pending a decision on a complaint by pro-Chávez legislators about the make up of the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE), which approved the vote. Last October, the opposition gathered more than 1.2 million valid signatures on petitions seeking the vote.

Meanwhile, the military has moved to disarm the Metropolitan Police. According to another report in El Universal, army and national guard units raided Metropolitan Police armories throughout Caracas early Tuesday and cleaned them out of armas largas, which is anything more powerful than a 38 pistol. In response, Metropolitan Caracas Mayor Alfredo

Peña announced that in view of its disarmament the Metropolitan Police would suspend patrols in lower-income neighborhoods. Also the guarding of banks, embassys and stations on the Caracas subway. He indicated that its participation in marches will be diminished and will depend on the capability left the officers of the teams of public order after the loss.

Peña anunció que en virtud del desarme la PM suspendería el patrullaje por las barriadas populares. También la custodia de bancos, embajadas y estaciones del Metro de Caracas. Señaló que la participación en las marchas se verá disminuida y dependerá de los equipos de orden público que queden en poder de los funcionarios después de los allanamientos.

Adding to Venezuela's burdens is the involvement of two international pests, long-time international ambulance chaser former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and newly minted meddler Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Carter visited Venezuela last June to mediate between the government and opposition (noted in El Sur, here and here). Events daily give evidence of Carter's failure. For his part, da Silva ought to have enough to do, managing South America's largest and most populace country, which also happens to be plagued by poverty, corruption and criminality. But no, he's decided, according to Bloomberg.com, that he's the man to deal with Venezuela's problems. Da Silva has formed a "Friends of Venezuela" group of Latin American leaders. He plans to meet with them and Chávez in Quito, Ecuador, where many are attending the inauguration of Ecuador's new President.

"Lula is taking to Quito a combination of proposals that protect the rights of civilians, as well as the institutional rights of the president," said Murilo de Aragao, who runs the Brasilia-based Arko Advice political research company...

De Aragao and other analysts have said Lula may seek to present a compromise solution under which the opposition halts the strike and recognizes Chavez's legitimacy until an election is held. Chavez, whose term ends in 2006, would also refrain from seeking to punish or restrict political opponents, analysts said.

As a generality, this is a formula Chávez and the opposition can agree on. In fact they already do. Both sides want elections and the courts refuse to punish anyone. Question is, which election, when? The opposition's non-binding consultative referendum, scheduled for February 2 (but now suspended), which the Chávez government won't finance and refuses to respect, or an August referendum, under the terms of the Chavista constitution, which the opposition refuses to wait for? When da Silva and the other presidents answer this question they will also be answering the really critical question: Which side are you on? And they will no longer be mediators, but partisans. And for what?, given that every one of them, except perhaps Chile's president, Ricardo Lagos, has multiplying problems of his own, da Silva not least among them.

Actually, Chile's President Lagos does have one problem. The Chilean Supreme Court stripped five pro-government legislators of their immunity in a bribery scandal, forcing their suspension from office. The government's margin in the national assembly is now one vote. Yahoo! News -
AP and La Tercera have reports.

2003-01-11T06:21:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Stratfor analysis: The private intelligence company, Stratfor (Stratfor.com) yesterday distributed a new analysis, avaialble via FreeRepublic.com.

Stratfor analysts believe that such a takeover could give Chávez an immediate PR coup, if foodstuffs are found in the food supply system (as woudl be expected) and portrayed as examples of hoarding. Longer term Stratfor doesn't see much gain . Stratfor analysts identify three specific problems:

First, remaining food stocks could be exhausted quickly and distributed unevenly among the populace. In recent weeks, since the military seized control of PDVSA's installations, local gasoline distribution has been more constant in poor areas -- where Chavez typically has more supporters -- than in opposition strongholds. The Chavez regime would have two clear motives to follow the same pattern with food distribution: first, to maintain the support of poor voters and shore up his sagging popularity ratings, and second, to starve out his foes.

The possibility that food stuffs could be stolen outright in the event of a military seizure also is difficult to discount. While charged with distributing gasoline, sources have told Stratfor that some soldiers demanded cash payments and refused to issue receipts to citizens.

Finally, many food companies in Venezuela are owned by U.S. or European multinationals. Chavez could run afoul of these countries if their governments perceive him as confiscating private property illegally.

The analysis, written after Chávez's speech, noted below, notes the contrast between his admission that the Venezuelan oil company produced barely 150,000 barrels a day during December and his assertion just a week ago that PDVSA production was back to one-million barrels a day. The analysis also says that capital flight from Venezuela amounted to $11 billion in 2002 and $34 billion since Chávez assumed office in 1999.

2003-01-10T19:02:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Self-destruction: Nearly a month ago, President Hugo Chávez ordered the military to take back and run the national oil company. Production would be back to normal by January 15, he said at the time. That's a week away and production is still a fraction of normal. The government's own estimate for a return to normality is now May.

Flush with that success, Chávez yesterday gave a speech in which he ordered the military to make ready take over the food distribution system, according to Bloomberg.com.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez ordered the military to prepare to seize food supplies to prevent starvation in the country after a national strike caused shortages of everything from milk to meat....

"What these traitors have done has really affected public finances," Chavez said in a televised speech.

Canned goods, dairy products, meat, soft drinks, flour and sugar are now in short supply, and the empty store shelves have led Chavez to import food from neighboring countries, such as Colombia and the Dominican Republic. Chavez is concerned the shortages may spark riots similar to those in 1989 that killed at least 300 people and weakened then-President Carlos Andres Perez, who was impeached four years later, analysts said.

Chavez said military units would take over silos, storehouses and warehouses if needed to ensure food supplies.

"The poor in the slums are already having troubles getting food," said Janet Kelly, a public affairs professor at Venezuela's Instituto de Estudios Superiores. "Transporting food is already a problem"....

"We've had to import gasoline at international prices and then resell it cheap to Venezuelans," Chavez said. "We've spent billions of dollars importing food, meat from Brazil, milk and flour from Colombia, rice from the Dominican Republic. We've had to do this because some insensitive businessmen have stopped producing flour and are hoarding rice and corn. I can't let people die of hunger."

Supermarkets in Venezuela were closed Thursday and Friday because a nationwide bank job action made it impossible for stores to process purchases by check, credit card and debit card.

In a related item, also from Bloomberg.com, Chávez for the first time publicly acknowledged the true condition of Venezuela's oil industry, though in the typically belligerent and unreflective manner that more than anything else frustrates and arngers the large number of Venezuelans who don't support him.

"For most of December, we were only producing 150,000 barrels a day. For the last few weeks, we haven't been able to sell a single barrel of oil, because we haven't had any tankers available because these traitors stopped all the tankers. What these traitors have done has really affected public finances."

The oil output number is the lowest Chávez has ever given and is close estimates that have been provided by striking oil executives. Tankers are refusing to enter Venezuelan ports because operational and security problems have made it difficult if not impossible to obtain insurance.

Finally, there was this:

"We've fired about 1,000 of the coup mongering managers at the state oil company. Now we have truly patriotic management."

"Kofi Annan called me this morning and said he was concerned and wanted to know what was going on here. I told him there's a group of opposition terrorists here."

"One of the most guilty parties behind this crisis is Gustavo Cisneros. I denounce him in front of all the world as a fascist and a coup monger."

Cisneros is an extremely wealthy Venezuelan, the owner of one of Latin America's largest media groups. He now lives in Miami, for obvious reasons. But, while Cisneros is no friend of Chávez, it is increasingly clear that he is not Chávez's worst enemy, that being Chávez himself.

2003-01-08T08:10:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Update:

1. Venezuela's banks will be closed Thursday and Friday, reports Bloomberg.com. The union Fetrabanca voted to strike for the two days as a means of pressuring President Hugo Chávez.

2. PDVSA dissidents are alleging that inadequate maintenance and operational errors by unqualified replacement employees have led to oil spills and other environmental damage, reports El Universal.

3. President Hugo Chávez is again threatening to decree a state of siege or state of exception, reports El Universal. The occasion is the opposition's new call for Venezuelans to not pay their taxes:

"They were not able in April to stop the force of the revolutionary government in benefiting the education of the children and young people, now they intend to break the nation's treasury, destroying the national fiscal accounts. With the petroleum damage we are going to begin the year with many economic difficulties, and now violating the Constitution and the laws, a group of stateless Venezuelans, traitors to their country, are calling for what they imagine is tax disobedience, inciting to to crime. Take note. It is a crime not to pay taxes."

"Ya que no pudieron en abril detener el esfuerzo del gobierno revolucionario en beneficio de la educación de los niños y jóvenes, ahora pretenden hacerlo quebrando las arcas de la nación, destruyendo las cuentas del fisco nacional. Con el daño petrolero vamos a comenzar un año con muchas dificultades económicas, y ahora violando la Constitución y las leyes, un grupo de venezolanos apátridas, traidores a la patria, están llamando a lo que concibe como desobediencia tributaria, incitando al delito. Alerto. Es un delito no pagar impuestos."

Too late. If Chávez finally makes good his threats, he will find that the declaration of a state of siege or emergency has little or no effect. The government has had in place a de facto state of emergency since shortly after the strike began. If issuing decrees and militarizing the economy were going to be effective, they would have been so by now. The government has attempted to operate Petróleos de Venezuela by force for nearly a month, to little effect. As an example of the brand new problems militarization creates, consider from an item posted in yesterday's El Sur the following description of the results of the government's takeover of private gasoline tank truck fleets:

...the revenue of local sale of gasoline did not enter PDVSA' s bank accounts because gas was sold on cash basis to pumps without invoices, (the Army personnel, truck drivers and pump operators negotiated the operation to their personal interest and benefit), an additional loss will be incurred by the sale of the imported gasoline at below cost prices, which may not even be collected. (There are no administrative control over sales.)...

There is no prescription for success here.

4. An article in today's Wall Street Journal (International Section, no link), makes the same point. Oddly titled "Strike in Venezuela Shows Signs of Winding Down," the article in fact gives evidence of the practical difficulties Chávez faces trying to bully the economy back into production.

A desire to reopen factories may not be enough to get assembly lines moving. Ricardo tinoco, a spokesman for Ford Motor Co. of Venezuela in the central city of Valencia, said his company on Moday decided to give its workers a second, consecutive vacation of three weeks. "We have not transportation, no gas, no customs services and no parts," he said.

Any of these alone, would be sufficient to slow production.

2003-01-07T09:49:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Duped: President Hugo Chávez fell victim to two Miami disk jockey's hoax, reports the Miami Herald. The two, Joe Ferrero and Enrique Santos, do a bit called Fidel Te Llama (Fidel is calling you), in which they call people and attempt to con them into believing it's the Cuban dictator on the line. Monday, they fooled Chávez. Hilarious. Afterward,

The station's switchboard lit up with a flood of callers, including the owner, Raúl Alarcón, whom Santos described as ''not very happy.'' Alarcón is chairman of the station's Miami-based parent company, Spanish Broadcasting System.

2003-01-07T08:20:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Analysis: A contributor to FreeRepublic.com yesterday posted an apparently Venezuelan corporate analysis of the situation in that country 28 days into the nationwide job action. Selected quotes:

PDVSA is hardly hit by the actual situation. December sales of over $1.2 Bn to foreign markets are not made, the revenue of local sale of gasoline did not enter PDVSA' s bank accounts because gas was sold on cash basis to pumps without invoices, (the Army personnel, truck drivers and pump operators negotiated the operation to their personal interest and benefit), an additional loss will be incurred by the sale of the imported gasoline at below cost prices, which may not even be collected. (There are no administrative control over sales.)....

In order to reach November 30th production level PDVSA needs at least 4 months (the expiry of substitution contracts signed by their customers to other vendors, work over of wells, which by the suspension of production will clog requiring repair and maintenance, etc.

People are demonstrating in the streets practically every day. They are a force of its own, evident when we consider that 92% of the population are calling or support the call for elections (according to latest survey by Datanalisis).

Leaders no longer lead or control the process, they just provide directions and schedules as to how to conduct marches and demonstrations in order to avoid "steam build up"....

Many companies obtain the bulk of revenue during December and in view of the nationwide strike they were not able to meet payroll due after December 15th. Nor will they be able to meet January obligations, even in the event that the strike ends, which most likely will result in payroll reductions. Potential personnel dismissal due to lack of payment capacity of salaries is high. This will lead to increased unemployment, which in turn will trigger social unrest....

The members of the Army have assumed a "wait and see" position, meaning they are officially not taking sides yet providing full support to the Government. (Army personnel are only allowed to watch and listen the State owned radio and TV station; and they have shown strong repression at street marches and demonstrations). Those opposing the Government position are retired very quickly....

The Government representatives show up to the daily scheduled meetings only when they feel the heat of the Opposition or when any Government decision goes sour. It is somehow being used by the Government as a tool to gain time under the assumption that it will benefit them in the long run, not considering the danger of: · Increased social unrest due to the increasing food, gas and fuel shortage (already 2 trucks carrying bottled gas for domestic use were looted, the same happened to 1 truckload of corn flour, 1 truck load of canned sardines and 3 truckloads of Coca Cola. There was an aborted attempt controlled by the Army, to loot the Makro Hypermarket). · The Government is holding onto power yet they do not have control over the Country (Governing crisis similar to the one leading Argentina's President De La Rua to resign) · The Schools will not open next January, thus adding to the confusion. · Staple foods shortage likely to occur despite the fact that 2 factories processing rice and corn flour opened in order to guarantee supply. Yet the Government announces it is a Government triumph because the strike is over, not realizing this is a protective measure against a social uprise.

There is the perception that the Government representatives are acting as they are, in fear of the Rome Statute which will prevail world wide in the event they are prosecuted for crimes against the people, leaving them no place to live (and enjoy their fortunes), should the Government they preside fall.

The report purports to have been prepared by a strategic task force in the Venezuelan logistics and transportation company Expotran (website) primarily for domestic and international customers. The report is obviously a translation. It is clearily anti-Chávez in orientation. However, nothing contained in it appears to contradict otherwise available information. In sum, while El Sur cannot vouch for the provenance of the report, it appears to present a realistic depiction of Venezuela's current condition and near term prospects.

2003-01-07T06:40:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Turmoil wrecks gas deals: In better days, Venezuela expected to reap as much as $1.3 billion by auctioning to international oil companies the right to participate in off-shore gas development with the state owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA). So far, the auction has generated offers of less than $60 million. The reason, reports yesterday's Wall Street Journal (International Section, no link), is political turmoil.

People close to the confidential auctionprocess, unveiled with much fanfare in August, say that at least two of the five bidders have doubts about partnering with the Chávez government to develop South America's largest gas reserve.

BG Group PLC (England), a preselected preffered bidder decided to make no offer. TotalFinaElf SA (France) bid only $100,000 for one block.

"TotalFinaElf basically wants this for free," said Alejandro Gonzalez , a Latin American gas analyst at Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Massachusetts. TotalFinaElf declined to comment on its bid. However, some observers said the company might not be confident that the Venezuelan government will move ahead quickly with plans to build pipelines and a processing plant that would allow transport of the gas to the Eastern U.S. and Europe.

This last gives the Venezuelan government too much credit. The issue isn't whether it "will" move ahead (choice) but whether it can go ahead (ability), given the mass firing of striking PDVSA managers and technicians and their replacement with foreigners who are, at the very least, untested. The Chávez government continues to try to operate a complex, modern institution by coercion.

Also worth noting: Despite all the bragging by PDVSA President Ali Rodriguez and President Hugo Chávez himself about how Venezuelan production will be restored to normal levels, first by mid- and then by late-January, production remains at very low levels. Bloomberg.com reports that Rodriguez himself admitted that Venezuelan production remains stalled at 600,000 barrels a day, compared with three million before the job action. Opposition estimates--that is estimates by striking company officials--have consistently run in the 300,000 to 400,000 barrels a day range.

In a January 2 analysis, available via FreeRepublic.com, the private intelligence firm Stratfor (website), says that, regardless of the outcome, the current work stoppage will do great long-term damage to Petróleos de Venezuela. Both the Chávez administration and the PDVSA's striking managers are way too optimistic about the company's post-strike future, according to Stratfor's analysis. Identified problems include financial problems (losses in excess of $6 billion), operational problems (depressurized oil fields) and the loss of credibility (a major cause of the failed gas concession auction, noted above).

2003-01-01T11:49:00.000-08:00

BRAZIL
Lula promises the moon: Inaugurated today, new President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva promised to end hunger end humger and redistribute agriculture land to the landless, through a peaceful agrarian reform, while generating growth and curbing inflation. So reports Bloomberg.com.

Growth and preventing inflation require investment; it remains to be seen whether domestic, let alone foreign, investors are willing risk money in a leftist-dominated environment. Agrarian reform is a perennial panacea that never pans out. At best it creates a permanent class of rural poor, trying to eke out a living on a too small holding; at worst--if the farmers are put in co-ops or barred from selling their land--it creates a kind of rural peonage. If the land to be redistributed is purchased at market from current owners it's costly; if confiscated, it sends investors--urban and rural--packing.

Better to develop a modern industrial and economy, capable of usefully employing the excess rural population, and a free market in agricultural products, letting rural Brazil find its own balance. That's also the way to end hunger.

If da Silva really intends to follow through on this plan, he's is in for a rocky ride indeed.

2002-12-31T08:39:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Oil: Government officials now say they expect Venezuela's oil production to return to normal by the end of January. Last week they were saying mid-January. Will the government succeed, or will this turn out to be like Argentina's new IMF loan deal, always about a month and a half in the future?

Even if the government is able to restart the petroleum industry using force and foreign workers, the twin problems of providing security and obtaining insurance for non-Venezuelan tankers remains, reports Bloomberg.com.

More than 40 oil tankers are lying off ports and are refusing to dock to load crude oil, citing safety concerns. That has contributed to a shutdown in crude production as storage plants have been filled, Energy and Mines Minister Rafael Ramirez said at a news conference.

"The tanker issue is our gravest problem," Ramirez said. "We can't move our products abroad."

According to the services, the strike has forced Petróleos de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA), the state-owned oil company, to operate docks and tugs with reduced staff, which strikers claim is unsafe.

"Our ports are safe," said Ramirez. "All the ports are under our control." The government is taking steps to persuade oil companies to send in their tankers, Ramirez said.

2002-12-27T08:27:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Government says refineries operating: Venezuela's oil minister says the country's three main oil refineries are in process of returning to full production, reports Bloomberg.com.

Petroleos de Venezuela SA's Puerto La Cruz refinery is operating at 80 percent capacity, while the El Palito refinery will restart in a ``few days'' to be followed by the Paraguana refinery, Energy & Mines Minister Rafael Ramirez said in a nationally televised address last night. The three plants have daily capacity of more than 1.2 million barrels.

``Our engineers are working day and night to restart these refineries,'' said Ramirez, without saying how many employees had gone back to work. He said Puerto La Cruz, with capacity of 203,000 barrels a day, is already producing 30,000 barrels of gasoline.

The president of Petroleos de Venezuela President, Ali Rodriguez said current output is 700,000 barrels a day (double a week ago), and will reach two million barrels a day next week, Bloomberg reported, citing Globovision television reported.

As a measure of the work stoppage's effect on Petroleos de Venezuela, PDVSA plans to sell "unprofitable" overseas businesses, according to a Christmas Eve report from Bloomberg.com. The company has lost $1.3 billion so far, due to the nationwide job action.

2002-12-27T08:17:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Limits of force: Whether he wins or loses in the end, President Hugo Chávez is learning one very important lesson from Venezuela's nationwide work stoppage. That is: it is difficult, if not impossible, to run a modern industry (let alone a country) by force. Chávez has fired oil workers and ordered the military to take over struck facilities owned by state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA). So far, nothing's worked. Oil production remains at a fraction of normal levels. An item from AFX News (UK) shows how limited brute force is in this kind of situation:

Oil tankers in Venezuela may be refused all cover by insurance companies on damage claims arising from the current unrest in Venezuela, according to the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners (Intertanko).

Insurance companies have informed Intertanko "that they will not recognise any damages caused by vessels or caused to the vessel under unsecured situations like no certified docking pilots, tugs with improper and uncertified crew and uncertified personnel performing loading or unloading operations at the terminals," Intertanko said in a statement.

The document published on its Internet site was referring to attempts made since the end of last week by the Venezuelan army and navy to take back control of tankers and oil installations from strikers.

Intertanko said: "We understand that no advice or notice have been issued by insurers so far but that they are monitoring the situation closely."

Multinational oil companies ordered captains of 14 oil tankers berthed off eastern Venezuela not to load oil, Ramon Martinez, the governor of the eastern state of Sucre and the energy ministry's representative in the region, said Thursday as the general strike went into a 25th day.

2002-12-26T12:50:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Update: Venezuela's nationwide work stoppage appears to have resolved itself into a strike against the national oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA). Opponents and supporters of President Hugo Chávez have demonstrated daily through the Christmas holiday. It is now obvious, however, that the demonstrations are secondary, in that they are neither going to remove Chávez from office, nor keep him there. Reports are that the voluntary closure of the country's commerical and industrial sector is also mostly over, though businesses have reopened out of necessity and exhaustion, not new found support for Chávez. On the other hand, the country's widespread fuel shortage has forced a great many industries to reduce operations or close alltogether. Increasingly, it is apparent that the conflict will turn on the job action against the oil company. PDVSA's workers remain committed to the stoppage; the government is working feverishly and forcefully to get operations running.

Bloomberg.com reports that the state oil company succeeded in loading and dispatching the seventh oil tanker since the strike began December 2. The government has vowed to get the company up to full production by mid-January. Independent observers are not so sure:

"Even if they started tomorrow, it would be difficult to get all the fields and refineries operating by March," said Antonio Szabo, president of Houston-based energy research company Stone Bond Corp. "There are very specific procedures to starting up an oil field or refinery. There are safety and equipment considerations. There are very complex processes."

PDVSA workers reiterated their support for the work stoppage at an assembly of the company's employees, according to El Universal.

A second report in El Universal describes the current condition of the business. PDVSA is producing at about 10 per cent of its normal level, the paper says, having delivered about 200,000 barrels of crude per day since December 2, versus 2.7 million barrels per day in November.

The government is also attempting to import gasoline to alleviate a serious domestic shortage that has produced long gas lines and a black market. Helping out is the new leftist government in Brazil, which has just sent a tanker filled with gasoline to Venezuela.

2002-12-19T13:10:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Carlos Ortega: The Miami Herald has a profile of Carlos Ortega, leader of the Venezuelan Workers Confederation union (CTV), and leader of the nationwide work stoppage.

Ortega is burly, blunt-spoken, and so jowly that he is often caricatured as a bulldog. He turned what started as a one-day strike to demand a referendum on Chávez's rule into a do-or-die push for his immediate resignation or early elections that has dragged on for 17 days.

At each day's end, Ortega holds a news conference to savage Chávez, extend the strike for another day and turn up the heat -- first a stay-at-home walkout, then street protests and now street barricades to paralyze traffic.

His biggest success was persuading many of the 40,000 workers in the oil industry, which accounts for 70 percent of the government's income and 13 percent of U.S. oil imports, to join the strike -- a move Chávez branded "a petroleum coup."

In today's press conference, Ortega said the work action has reached a "critical phase" ("fase crítica"), according to El Universal.

"The country will enter in the next hours a critical state with respect to the provision and supply of all kinds of fuels, including domestic gas," in addition to the shortage of supplies.

"El país entra en las próximas horas en estado crítico en lo que respecta al abastecimiento y suministro de toda clase de combustible, incluido gas doméstico", además del déficit de víveres.

And,

In his usual part of the working day, Ortega claimed the success of the second day of the street demonstrations. Along this line, he had words of praise for the "street game" of soccer between government and opposition partisans: "Venezuela Won. It was a worthy lesson for all," he said Wednesday.

"The people stayed in the street, strong and determined to remove the dictator Chávez," in this way he reiterated the continuation of the stoppage and the active presence in the streets of the entire country, as a gesture of rejection.

En su acostumbrado parte de la jornada, Ortega reivindicó el éxito del segundo trancazo. En esa línea, tuvo palabras de elogio para la 'caimanera' de futbolito entre oficialistas y opositores: 'Ganó Venezuela. Fue una digna lección para todos', expresó este miércoles.

'El pueblo seguirá en la calle, firme y decidido a salir del dictador Chávez', de esa manera reiteró la prolongación de la paralización y la presencia activa en la calles de todo el país, como gesto de rechazo.

(Yahoo! News has a photo of that soccer game, here.)

As to what the Miami Herald calls Ortega's "biggest success"--shutting down the oil industry--Bloomberg.com reports that no tankers have left Venezuela in the last day, leaving the total that have left since the work action began December 2 at three.

2002-12-19T11:59:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Strike against PDVSA ordered ended: Yesterday the Venezuelan supreme court dealt a blow to President Hugo Chávez, ordering return of control of the Metropolitan Police to the metropolitan Caracas government. Today, reports El Universal, the court dealt an even heavier blow to the opposition, when it ordered an end to the strike against Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state-owned oil company. The order is temporary, while the court considers a government request to declare the strike illegal. El Nacional adds:

The deputy Gerardo Blyde, of Justice First, declared that it is contrary to the constitutional order because it does not take into account the contemplated right to strike and the right of the citizenry to declare themselves in disobedience.

El diputado Gerardo Blyde, de Primero Justicia, declaró es contraria al orden constitucional porque no toma en cuenta el derecho a la huelga contemplado y el derecho de la ciudadanía a declararse en desobediencia.

2002-12-18T17:52:00.000-08:00

ARGENTINA
Newspaper owner arrested: Ernestina Herrera de Noble, owner of one of Argentine's leading dalies, Clarin, was arrested today on suspicion that she adopted children taken from imprisoned dissidents during the "dirty war" of the late 1970s and early 1980s, reports Yahoo! News - AP. Her attorney, Eduardo Padilla, denied the allegations and accused the judge of abuse.

Argentina's largest press advocacy group, ADEPA, expressed "grave concern" over the detention and noted that similar accusations had been raised and rejected by the courts in recent years.

"Today we call for an urgent resolution," to Herrera de Noble's case said a statement by the group.

2002-12-18T15:47:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Situation report: Stratfor, the private intelligence firm, has a situation report on Venezuela, available through FreeRepublic.com.

Among the items noted by Stratfor: 1) Chávez and his vice president, Jose Vicente Rangel, are publicly suggesting that plans are afoot to assassinate Chávez. 2)The petroleum industry situation is mixed, with, on the one hand, tanker owners and insurers still unwilling to enter Venezuelan ports because of safety concerns, while, on the other, gas pipeline pressure in the Anaco region of eastern Venezuela is up, which may make it possible to re-start state-owned steel and aluminum operations at Puerto Ordaz.

Yahoo! News has a photo of the tanker Pilin Leon (here) at anchor in Lake Maracaibo in western Venezuela, where the oil industry is centered. This was the first tanker to strike. Three weeks later it remains unmoving, despite the government's best efforts.

2002-12-18T13:38:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Police control returned to city: According to El Nacional,

Direction of the Metropolitan Police was returned to the hands of the metropolitan mayor, Alfredo Peña, after a decision of the Constitutional Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice this Wednesday afternoon.

La dirección de la Policía Metropolitana volvió a manos del alcalde Metropolitano, Alfredo Peña, luego de la decisión de la Sala Constitucional del Tribunal Supremo de Justicia la tarde de este miércoles.

Peña is an outspoken Chávez opponent.

This is a hugely important decision. In the first instance, it places a legitimate, armed force beyond Chávez's control. (In fact, there is a real question whether Chávez's appointed MP chief ever had effective control over the force.) More importantly, it forces Chávez to face up to his own advice of last weekend. During his Saturday radio program, Chávez told military leaders and other officials to ignore judicial orders that contradicted his. The Supreme Court has just delivered a very big order contradicting one of his orders. How will he respond?

Yahoo! News - AP has a report on the decision and other events in Venezuela today.

2002-12-18T07:17:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Dissident general responds: On Monday, the commandant of the army, Julio José García Montoya heled a press conference in which he called the opposition's strike against the oil industry "sabotage" and an "agression agains the survival of the state" (see El Sur. Today, reports El Universal, General Enrique Medina Gómez, leader of the military dissidents who have been encamped in the Plaza Francia de Altamire for 55 days, responded, accusing Garcia Montoya of putting the army "in the margin of the law" ("al margen de la ley").

"'García Montoya tries to make use of the abilities of the army to obstruct, according to him, a social and economic collapse. This is an absurdity without precedents in our history," he said.

He reminded that the collapse to which he refers "exists as a consequence of the mistaken policies of the government and these are some of the causes that have generated the great national discontent.

"García Montoya pretende hacer uso de las capacidades del Ejército para impedir, según él, un colapso económico y social. Ese es un desvarío sin precedentes en nuestra historia", dijo.

Le recordó que el colapso al que hace referencia "existe como consecuencia de las equivocadas políticas del Gobierno y que son algunas de las razones que han generado el gran descontento nacional."

2002-12-17T18:49:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Oil II: Yahoo! News - AP has an update on today's events in Venezuela, focused on oil.

The strike has reduced Venezuela's oil output of nearly 3 million barrels a day to less than 400,000 barrels per day, state oil officials said Tuesday, sending crude prices above $30 a barrel. Venezuela's strike coincides with speculation that possible U.S. action against Iraq might take Iraqi oil off the market.

One of the world's largest oil refineries halted production because of the strike. Curacao's Refineria Isla was running out of storage capacity as international clients sought alternate supplies, said Norbert Chaclin, the refinery's technical manager.

The refinery, operated by Venezuela's oil company, stopped producing gasoline, lubricants, jet fuel, propane and other products for the United States and the Caribbean, Chaclin said. Its last delivery was Sunday.

Two of Venezuela's largest refineries, including one producing gasoline for Venezuela and the United States, have shut down. State oil executives have vowed to cap wells until Chavez resigns or calls early elections.

Venezuela's 13-tanker shipping fleet lies at anchor, its striking crews refusing to deliver their cargos. Foreign shippers refuse to operate in Venezuela, citing unsafe conditions. Insurers refuse to cover transport to and from Venezuela, the No. 4 oil exporter to the United States, supplying 10 percent of U.S. oil imports.

Chavez was dealt another blow Tuesday when officials at the giant Hovensa refinery in the U.S. Virgin Island of St. Croix announced no gasoline shipment was headed to Venezuela.

Venezuela has a majority stake in the refinery, which also supplies the U.S. East Coast and is one of the largest in the Western Hemisphere. Its 400,000-barrel-per-day production has been cut in half.

Yahoo! News also has photos of today's demonstrations in Caracas, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.

2002-12-17T18:40:00.000-08:00

CUBA
European Union gives dissident human rights award: The Miami Herald reports that the European Union has awarded Oswaldo Paya the Sakharov Award, its highest human rights award, for his efforts to bring democracy to Cuba. Payo organized the Varela Project, which gathered 11,000 signatures for a referendum on basic human rights. In response, Cuban dictator Fidel Castro gathered more than a million on a petition asking Cuba's national assembly to permanently embed socialism in the country's constitution, which it did.

El Sur noted Paya's efforts and the Varela project in several posts at the time, including here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here.

2002-12-17T18:05:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Current balance: Stratfor, the private intelligence firm, has a new analysis out entitled "The Current Balance," available via FreeRepublic.com. Balance is exactly what Stratfor's analysts see today.

Chavez's problems are several, Stratfor says. The economy is mostly shut down. The oil industry is producing little. The oil-rich country is running out of fuel. Government efforts to restart the industry have generally failed and damaged equipment in the bargain. The government is using scarce foreign exchange to import food and other necessities. In Chávez's favor, is a divided opposition, without generally accepted leadership. Also divided, says Stratfor, is the military, with Chávez opponents among mid-level officers unwilling to move against the government absent a bloody provocation. Chávez also has an ace in the hole, Stratfor says, in the form of Cuban and Colombian paramilitaries. Thus, "the current balance":

This week appears to be critical. If the gasoline and cooking gas supplies run out and food shortages continue to deepen, an opposition march later this week could draw massive support. It also could spark a confrontation, if the march is directed at the presidential palace as planned. At that point, everyone shows their cards. Divisions in the military will be clarified, as will the resolve of Chavez, his supporters and his foes.

On the other hand, if the government is able to coordinate relief efforts, carefully directing the delivery of food staples, public opinion could swing against the strikers. Or if Chavez continues to exercise the same restraint he has demonstrated over the past two weeks, banking on the opposition's aversion to decisive action, the march could lap at the gates of the presidential palace and ebb away to no effect.

Watch the gas pumps. Then watch the march. If Chavez survives the weekend, he may well have weathered yet another storm.

Chávez's main advantage is that he is the elected president, legally entitled to hold office until 2006, unless ousted in a recall referendum during or after August 2003. There will have to be a very good reason for any other outcome--except a truly voluntary resignation (and who expects that?).

2002-12-17T14:06:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Social basis of struggle: There is always a tendency among Americans to look at a crisis in a foreign country as primarily an instance in a larger struggle, and the contending parties (or at least one of them) as puppets in a U.S.-centered world drama. Two articles from separate U.S. news sources demonstrate that Venezuela's political conflict is primarily indigenous. The first, a report from today's Boston Globe looks at the fierce loyalty Chávez has engendered in his core following, and the virulent local opposition he has generated. The second, from Yahoo! News - Dow Jones describes a minor skirmish in the fight for control of Venezuela's petroleum industry. What's striking, is that none of the skirmishers were professionals--police, army or national guard. All are civilians:

About 60 busloads of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's supporters may be headed toward the Anaco natural gas facility Tuesday to attempt a takeover of the complex, a company official said, adding that he fears a confrontation may result in serious damage and a possible explosion.

Monday, residents of Cantaura blocked highway access to the facility when 14 busloads of Chavez's supporters tried to take over the gas plant, Vidal said.

As reported, Anaco workers have joined a nationwide strike against Chavez's leadership, and the resulting drop in natural gas supplies has virtually shut most heavy industries in western Venezuela's Guayana region.

2002-12-17T13:29:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Oil: Bloomberg.com says that Venezuela's oil exports remain shut down, despite government efforts and threats. Only three tankers have loaded since the strike began December 2; normally 12 to 14 a day load.

Insurance agents have warned tankers that docks in Venezuela may be unsafe because the strike reduced manpower and experience at the ports. More than 40 tankers are waiting off the coast to load oil from the world's fifth largest exporter.

There is a sense in which the current phase of the Venezuelan conflict boils down to a contest of staying power between Hugo Chávez's refusal to accept early elections and the opposition's ability to keep the oil industry shut down. Whoever holds out longest wins. Over the long run, however, Chávez's position is much weaker than the opposition's. His positioin is defensive, theirs offensive. They can fail to overthrow him a dozen times, without losing; if he fails to hold on even once, he's history.

2002-12-16T17:09:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Update

1. Is the oil industry paralyzed or not? The state of the oil industry is the best predictor of the likely outcome of the two-week old work stoppage in Venezuela. The government insists production is increasing. Government forces yesterday forceably took control of a striking tanker and replaced its crew. According to Bloomberg.com:

Venezuela sent its first shipment of oil from the western port of Maracaibo since last week. The tanker Kiowa Spirit, carrying 480,000 barrels of oil, left Maracaibo for Houston, said Captain Jose Fernandez, who overseas port operations.

"It loaded and left without any problems whatsoever," Fernandez said in a telephone interview. The Kiowa Spirit was the first tanker to leave Maracaibo since Dec. 12.

Shipments from the eastern ports of Puerto La Cruz and Jose remain halted, said Antonio Valladares, who oversees Petroleos de Venezuela's Puerto La Cruz loading terminal.

"We have the cargo ready," Valladares said in an interview. "The problem is that insurers are advising the tankers not to dock."

Chavez said yesterday that four tankers carrying 2 million barrels had left Venezuela. Strikers at Petroleos de Venezuela disputed the president's claim.

2. The commandant of the army, Julio José García Montoya, held a press conference late this afternoon at which he "classified the oil industry work stoppage as 'sabotage' that constitutes an 'agression against the survival of the state'" ("calificando la huelga petrolera como un 'sabotaje' y constituye una 'agresión contra la supervivencia del Estado'"). According to El Nacional's report, the general said workers have "kidnapped" the country's oil installations.

In his discourse to the nation the commander of the army directed himself to the "immense majority" (a term used in the promotions of Venezuelan state television to refer to the partisans of Chavism) and said that "this attack against vital interests has been sold with the camoflage of a legally valid civic protest...a campaign that wants to see as legitimate a situation that exposes Venezuelans to suffering the rigores of anarchy," affirmed Montoya.

En este discurso a la nación el Comandante del Ejército se dirigió a esa "inmensa mayoría" (término usado en las promociones de VTV para referirse a los partidarios del chavismo) y dijo que "este ataque contra intereses vitales ha sido vendido con el camuflaje de la protesta cívica legalmente válida (...) una campaña que quiere ver como legítimo una situación que expone a sufrir a los venezolanos los rigores de la anarquía", reiteró Montoya.

Yahoo! News has a photo of Montoya, here.

3. Another high official in the Chávez government broke with the President, at least in one particular. According to El Nacional, Attorney General (Fiscalía General) Isaías Rodríguez called on public authorities to obey judicial orders. On television Sunday, President Hugo Chávez told military leaders and others to ignore judicial orders that contradicted his. Rodríguez also warned the opposition that the tougher tactics they have called for will be met with the full force of law.

4. For the first time, opposition protesters began clashing with police on the streets of Caracas. The clashes came, according to Yahoo! News - AP, after police began attempting to open streets and highways that were being blockaided by demonstrators.

Using the slogan "Block your block," the frustrated opposition launched its "takeover of Caracas" after a two-week strike devastated the economy but only strengthened Chavez's resolve.

"You can't throw rocks at police!" one officer pleaded with residents of a central neighborhood.

Above him, opposition supporters leaned out of windows banging pots and pans in protest. Officers fired rubber bullets at the buildings, breaking windows and sending residents scurrying for cover. The sting of tear gas filled the air.

Yahoo! News has photos of some of the protests here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.

5. Finally, Yahoo! News - AP has a report on the state of the opposition that indicates they are united only by their dislike of Hugo Chávez. Once he is gone, there will be open warfare between these erstwhile allies.

2002-12-15T06:03:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Oil:

1. Two successive reports on the same subject from the same source show the limitations of coercion when it comes to keeping a complex industrial system functioning and the experts and trained workers go out on strike. The first, from Bloomberg.com on Friday reports on the departure of the oil tanker Josefa Camejo carrying the first shipment of oil since December 3 from Puerto La Cruz and the second shipment from the country. In the second, Bloomberg.com reports (quoting El Universal) that the Josefa Camejo may be recalled because it left without proper documentation, which could keep it from being unloaded legaly in the U.S.

2. After days of brave talk about retaking control of the oil industry, reports El Universal

The president of Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), Alí Rodríguez admitted that the petroleum industry "in good measure is paralized," according to what he said on Unión Radio.

Despite sending the military to the petroleum installations and the discharge of four leaders of striking workers, the government has not succeeded in warding off the conflict throughout PDVSA.

El presidente de Petróleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa), Alí Rodríguez, reconoció que la industria petrolera 'en buena medida está paralizada', según reportó Unión Radio.

A pesar del envío de los militares a las instalaciones petroleras y el despido de cuatro líderes de los trabajadores en huelga, el Gobierno no ha logrado conjurar el conflicto dentro de Pdvsa.

3. The work stoppage is creating gasoline shortages throughout the country, even in the state of Zulia, which surrounds Lake Maracaibo where the oil industry is centered (see ma linked right). According to El Universal:

What most has affected Zulianos has been the shortage of gasoline in the service stations, that has provoked an unstoppable compulsive wave among users, who continue to besiege the places of sale, generating enormous lines of vehicles, and of people with cans seeking to fill them.

Although representatives of the MEM in Zulia have employed a contingency plan to extend reserves of gasoline, the situation does not give indications of change and the climate of unease has become the feeling that most affects the collectivity. The dramatic situation has provoded anarchy in public transport...

Lo que más ha afectado a los zulianos ha sido la escasez de gasolina en las estaciones de servicio, que ha provocado una indetenible ola compulsiva en los usuarios, quienes mantienen asediados los centros de expendio, generando enormes colas de vehículos, y de personas que con bidones buscan abastecerse.

Aunque los representantes del MEM en Zulia han empleado un plan de contingencia para extender las reservas de combustible, la situación no parece dar indicios de cambios y el clima de desconcierto ha pasado a ser el sentimiento que más afecta a la colectividad. La dramática situación ha provocado anarquía en el transporte público...

4. The captain of a strking PDVSA fuel tanker was freed by a Venezuelan court, reports Yahoo! News - Dow Jones. The judge said the captain, Atilio Bermudez, had committed no crime when he stopped the tanker, Yavire, which was on its way to deliver a natural gas shipment, according to the report, which originated with Globovision television in Venezuela. Among other things, this is an example of the continuing reluctance of the courts (as, to lesser extent, the military) to use their independent power to tip the decision in the larger struggle to one side by responding to its demands. Cowardice? Perhaps. But it gives room for the political struggle to play itself out.

2002-12-13T13:29:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Analysis: The Center for Strategic and International Studies published an analysis of the Venezuelan situation by Diaz its webside, CSIS.org on Tuesday.

2002-12-13T13:24:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Opposition general speaks: Enrique Medina Gómez, the leader of the dissident military officers who created an encampment in the Plaza Francia de Altamira in October and have maintained it since, gave an interview to El Universal. Here it is:

Photos were taken hugs shared and autographs signed in the plaza, under the attentive watch of their escorts. Later, he asked for a coffee and began the conversation lamenting that the national armed forces (FAN) are so politicized and ideologized that when the hour to restructure them comes, there will have to be a "very dramatic" reduction in the number of their members, to eradicate the "Chavista germ" and to incorporate the entire society into the process of reinstitutionalization.

For the General of Division (Army) Enrique Medina Gómez, the component to which he belongs is the most affected by the military crisis and is it specifically that keeps Chávez hanging on to the presidency, "because he only listens to the political commissars of the national armed forces who blackmail, threaten and buy consciences."

Q. The President insists that he maintains control of the FAN.

A. Chávez has always lived in a magical realism. Always he has deceived himself the same. He does not have support. What is happening now in the FAN is that he only hears the political commissars that have his confidence and that feel that they are controlling an important part of the institution, which is not certain. These political commissars act through deception, pressure, the purchase of consciences, blackmail and of course they threaten others. This is not to say that this is control.

Q. What has to happen for the institutional FAN to pass on Chávez?

A. Here one must not push anyone. They must take their decision and like Venezuelans react, reflect, and locate themselves at the side of those who are the base of a FAN that is society. When they understand this, surely they will give the response that we are all hoping for. Meanwhile, one must remain ready to fight, with the active strike, the people in the street and the Altamira fighting.

Q. What is the degree of decomposition within the army?

A. Without doubt it has been the component most affected by the politicization and ideological penetration that Chávez has originated. He initiated the previous conspiricy in '92. Chávez has dedicated major attention to it and it is where there are many partisans of Chavismo. We will have to direct a much greater effort to reinstitutionalize it. Also the National Guard, whose recent actions not only surprise civil society, but military men, because they are a demonstration of the use of force of a form so grotesque and so repressive as never has been seen.

Q. What actions would be essential for the reunification of the FAN?

A. In a first stage, a dramatic reduction in its size, to create absolute professionalism, 100 per cent, to redefine some objectives to frame its conceptual definition and to discuss important aspects of this reunification with all society. Those who don't share this, they would have to leave, because they cannot continue causing damage to the FAN. Moreover, the society as a whole has to discuss what this new role will be, and how it is going to be organized, in order to avoid the risk that in the future some other person will want to try to take ownership of it in order to put it to his personal service or of a political project.

Q. Are you satisfied with the results of the work action?

A. From the point of view of political strategy, it was logical that we arrived at the strike. It has been a forceful action, over all because it is an eminently political strike: it is not sectoral, not commercial, not union oriented. Its results are evident because beyond the fact that some open commerce exists, what has been demonstrated is that the state is in chaos and although there is a important paralysis of economic activity, the government has tried to deny this reality, this is not virtual, but truthful. Also we have seen that there is misrule and this is a victory.

Q. The objectives appear to be different than those obtained.

A. Many people went on strike and adopted it raising different objectives: one was to achieve the resignation of the president, another, that the government agree to holding a referendum, another that early general elections be called, but all seeking the departure of Chávez. What is important is that it has consolidated the center of public opinion that the only possible end , at this time, is resignation.

Q. From officer to officer, do you believe that Chávez will resign?

A. He already did it April 11. He will do it. It is not possible to keep a country economically paralyzed like it is at this time. The transcendence of this strike goes beyond its daily expressions in the street. One has to look at the paralyzation of the leading national industry. Soon there will be important international pressure as consequence of the errors that the government is commiting and due to the importance that our economy has in the Latin American and world context.

Q. What are you planning for a transition?

A. There are divergent forces. We have to give the country a demonstration of what the Venezuela is that we are going to transition to after Chávez, in terms of governability, an economic platform, unemployment, the health crisis, the absence of investment, marginality and insecurity. We are faced with an opposition that has not been able to achieve concrete proposals in order to relate to the country and the international community how we are going to articulate them in order to confront these problems. We believe that the Mesa de Negociación y Acuerdos (OAS Secretary Gaviria's meetings) should start to work, still to negotiate departure of Chávez, and to articulate this transition. We propose moreover that the group of six opposition negotiators add a representative of the Venezuelan woman, because she has been the point of the lance in this fight to recover the lost regime of liberty.

Q. But at this time the Mesa is discussing an electoral end.

A. We have found criteria respecting where we intend to tak ourselves. The referendum of rejection we have already had, it is in the streets. Here there no longer are going to be elections. There is no need to go to the ballot box, what is needed is the exit of Chávez. What is fundamental and transcendent at this juncture is that in addition to the departure of the president is that he exit in a political way...

Q. Considering that the government representative at the Mesa does not agree to negotiate resignation, they will continue speaking of amendment, election and referendum.

A. These are government snares. This critical situation implies an immediate end to the crisis. Where we have to go is to the resignation of Chávez, (then) after a transition that permits the articulation and recomposition of the institutions, to generate a trustworthy framework over which elections can be put up and to open new spaces for participation. What is essential is time. We are not able to stay trapped in that the solution is electoral in three months, when we have a current reality that the risk is of violence. Every day that passes increases the intention of the government to arrive at a final confrontation. This is the reality. Some opposition actors play the government's game because they continue trapped in this solution. Some are political autistics. The people don't feel like being interpreted by third parties but by themselves, and this is why they remain mobilized in the street.

A. You sound radical.

Q. No, I am a realist. This word has been muddled. He who tells the truth, they brand him as a radical and to him who is adorns things with personal purposes, they call him moderate. All this is a trap. One has to be realistic.

Q. Do you have confidence in Gaviria?

A. While Gaviria maintains his intention to promote elections for the coming year as a solution to the crisis, we are not able to have trust, because he is giving indications that he is out of phase with the reality of the country. He has had a game in that he has gone delaying the solution of the problem. Including we have information that Gaviria tried to brake the strike. Nevertheless, we believe that as a figure who represents an international organization he can guarantee the transparency of the agreements that are arrived at. We want Gaviria to validate the result of the negotiation that carries us to the departure of Chávez. We cannot have international support as long as we don't know where we are going.

Q. The military men of Altamira have place in this transaction?

A. We only want to return to the barracks because there we have an immense work. We do not have political aspirations and those who have confused Altamira with a publicity stunt still have not uderstood this. Here we are discussing seriously the problems of the country.

Se tomó fotos, repartió abrazos y firmó autógrafos en la plaza, bajo la mirada atenta de sus escoltas. Luego, pidió un café e inició la conversación lamentando que la Fuerza Armada Nacional (FAN) esté tan politizada e ideologizada que cuando sea la hora de reestructurarla, habrá que hacer una reducción 'muy dramática' del número de sus miembros, erradicar el 'germen chavista' e incorporar a toda la sociedad al proceso de reinstitucionalización.

Para el general de división (Ej) Enrique Medina Gómez, el componente al que pertenece es el más afectado por la crisis militar y es precisamente el que mantiene a Chávez aferrado a la Presidencia 'porque él sólo escucha a los comisarios políticos de la FAN que chantajean, amedrentan y compran conciencias'.

_El Presidente asegura que mantiene el control de la FAN.

_Chávez siempre ha vivido en un realismo mágico. Siempre se ha engañado a sí mismo. No tiene apoyo. Lo que sucede en este momento dentro de la FAN es que él sólo oye a los comisarios políticos que tiene en cargos de confianza y que sienten que están controlando una porción importante de la institución, lo cual no es cierto. Esos comisarios políticos actúan a través del engaño, de la presión, de la compra de conciencias, del chantaje y por supuesto amedrentan a otros. Eso no quiere decir que tiene el control.

_¿Qué tiene que suceder para que la FAN institucional se pronuncie sobre Chávez?

_Aquí no hay que empujar a nadie. Ellos tienen que tomar su decisión y como venezolanos reaccionar, recapacitar y colocarse al lado de quienes son la base de una FAN que es la sociedad. Cuando ellos entiendan eso, seguramente darán la respuesta que todos estamos esperando. Mientras tanto, hay que seguir en pie de lucha, con el paro activo, la gente en la calle y Altamira luchando.

_¿Cuál es el grado de descomposición del Ejército?

_Sin duda ha sido el componente más afectado por la politización y la penetración ideológica que ha originado Chávez. Allí fue donde se inició la conspiración previa en el 92, Chávez le ha dedicado mayor atención y es donde hay más partidarios del chavismo. Allí tendremos que orientar muchos más esfuerzos para reintitucionalizarlo. También en la Guardia Nacional, cuyas últimas actuaciones no sólo sorprenden a la sociedad civil, sino a los militares, porque son una demostración del uso de la fuerza de una forma tan grotesca y tan avasallante como nunca se había visto.

_¿Qué acciones serían imprescindibles para una reunificación de la FAN?

_En una primera etapa, una reducción dramática de su tamaño, dirigir una profesionalización absoluta, en 100%, redefinir algunos objetivos para enmarcar su definición conceptual y discutir los aspectos importantes de esa reunificación con toda la sociedad. Quienes no compartan esto, tendrán que salir, porque no pueden seguir causando daño a la FAN. Además, la sociedad como un todo tiene que discutir cuál es ese nuevo rol, y cómo se va a organizar, para evitar el riesgo de que en el futuro cualquier otra persona quiera pretender adueñarse de ella para colocarla a su servicio personal o de un proyecto político.

_¿Está satisfecho con los resultados del paro?

_Desde el punto de vista de estrategia política, era lógico que llegáramos al paro. Ha sido una acción contundente, sobre todo porque es un paro eminentemente político: no es gremial, empresarial, ni sindical. Sus resultados son evidentes porque más allá de que pueda existir algún comercio abierto, lo que ha quedado demostrado es que el Estado está en caos y aunque hay una paralización importante de la actividad económica, el Gobierno ha tratado de desconocer esa realidad, que no es virtual, sino verdadera. También hemos visto que hay un desgobierno y esa es una victoria.

_Los objetivos parecían ser diferentes a los obtenidos.

_Mucha gente fue al paro y lo asumió planteándose objetivos distintos: uno era lograr la renuncia del Presidente, otro, que el Gobierno accediera a la convocatoria al referendo, otro que se convocara a elecciones generales adelantadas, pero todos buscando la salida de Chávez. Lo importante es que se ha consolidado la matriz de opinión de que la única salida posible, en este momento, es la renuncia.

_De militar a militar, ¿usted cree que Chávez renuncie?

_Ya lo hizo el 11 de abril. Lo hará. No es posible mantener a un país económicmente paralizado como está en este momento. La trascendencia de este paro va más alla de las expresiones cotidianas que se ven en la calle. Tiene que ver con la paralización de la primera industria nacional. Pronto habrá una presión internacional importante como consecuencia de los errores que el Gobierno está cometiendo y por la importancia que nuestra economía tiene en el contexto latinoamericano y mundial.

_¿Qué están planteando ustedes para una transición?

_Se están haciendo esfuerzos divergentes. Tenemos que darles muestra al país de cuál es la Venezuela que vamos a transitar después de Chávez en materia de gobernabilidad, plataforma económica, desempleo, crisis de salud, falta de inversión, marginalidad e inseguridad. Estamos ante una oposición que no ha logrado plantear propuestas concretas para decirle al país y a la comunidad internacional cómo vamos a articularnos para afrontar esos problemas. Creemos que la Mesa de Negociación y Acuerdos debe empezar a trabajar ya en negociar la salida de Chávez y en articular esa transición. Proponemos además que al grupo de los seis negociadores de la oposición se sume una representación de la mujer venezolana, porque ha sido la punta de lanza en esta lucha por la recuperación del régimen de libertades perdidas.

_Pero en este momento la Mesa está discutiendo una salida electoral.

_Tenemos criterios encontrados respecto hacia dónde nos dirigimos. El referendo de rechazo ya se hizo, está en las calles. Aquí ya no hay que ir a elecciones. No hay que ir a las urnas, lo que hay que buscar es la salida de Chávez. Lo fundamental y lo trascendente de esta coyuntura es que además de salir del Presidente hay que salir de una manera de hacer política...

_Considerando que el oficialismo representado en la Mesa no acepte negociar la renuncia, seguirán hablando de enmienda, elección y referendo.

_Esas son trampas del Gobierno. Esta situación coyuntural implica una salida inmediata a la crisis. Lo que debemos ir es a la renuncia de Chávez, después a una transición que permita articular y recomponer las instituciones, generar un marco confiable sobre el cual se monten unas elecciones y abrir nuevos espacios de participación. Lo esencial son los tiempos. No podemos seguir entrampados en que la solución es electoral para dentro de tres meses, cuando tenemos una realidad actual que el riesgo de la violencia. Cada día que pasa aumenta la intención del Gobierno de llegar a una confrontación final. Esa es la realidad. Algunos actores de la oposición le hacen el juego al Gobierno porque continúan entrampados en esa solución. Son unos autistas políticos. La gente no se siente interpretada por terceros sino por ellos mismos, y por eso es que se mantiene movilizada en la calle.

_Usted suena radical.

_No, soy realista. Se ha confundido esa palabra. A quien dice la verdad, lo tildan de radical y a quien adorna las cosas con intenciones personales, le dicen moderados. Todo eso es una trampa. Hay que ser realista.

_¿Confía en Gaviria?

_Mientras Gaviria mantenga su intención de promover elecciones para el año que viene como salida a la crisis, no le podemos tener confianza, porque está dando indicativos de que está desfasado de la realidad del país. El ha hecho un juego en que ha ido retrasando la solución del problema. Incluso tenemos la información de que Gaviria trató de frenar el paro. Sin embargo, creemos que como figura que representa a una organización internacional puede garantizar la transparencia de los acuerdos a los cuales se llegue. Queremos que Gaviria valide el resultado de la negociación que nos lleve a la salida de Chávez. No puede haber apoyo internacional mientras no se vea hacia dónde nos dirigimos.

_¿Los militares de Altamira tienen cabida en esa transición?

_Sólo queremos regresar a los cuarteles porque allí tenemos un trabajo inmenso. No tenemos aspiraciones políticas y eso todavía no lo han entendido quienes han confundido a Altamira con un show publicitario. Aquí estamos discutiendo seriamente la problemática del país.

2002-12-13T13:06:00.000-08:00

COLOMBIA
Beginnings of disintegration? Bloomberg.com reports that desertions from the illegal armies of the left have quadrupled this year. Could Colombia's 40-year civil war end with disintegration of the guerilla armies, instead of a peace settlement or military defeat? Both the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia , or FARC) and the National Liberation Army (Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional, or ELN) are losing members to desertion.

"The fact that desertions are increasing reflects a declining morale within the ranks of these groups," said Adam Isacson, an analyst with the Washington-based Center for International Policy who has met with the guerrillas and people close to the paramilitaries. "But while there remains this huge reservoir of poor people, there will be replacements."

Reforms in the armed forces that have boosted their effectiveness also have contributed to growing disillusionment in the illegal groups.

2002-12-13T12:53:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Stratfor report: Stratfor has another excellent situation report out, available via FreeRepublic.com. The news is good and bad: The oil industry remains effectively shuttered. Chávez is busily arming civilian loyalists. For what?

2002-12-12T07:25:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Stratfor report: The private intelligence firm Stratfor has an excellent summary of today's events, available via FreeRepublic.com. Most important: Stratfor's sources support opposition claims that the oil industry is not funcitioning at anything close to normal, despite official claims to the contrary. A new factor, raised by Stratfor's analyst, is the possibility that the state-owned oil company may not be able to insure ships with replacement crews:

19:50 GMT - International shipping sources say that Lloyd's of London and the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners (Intertanko) are separately evaluating safety conditions at Venezuela's oil terminals, amid a strike by Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) workers that has disrupted oil production, refining and export operations. Both organizations could announce a quarantine of Venezuela's oil terminals due to unsafe conditions. Such a decision would make it impossible for tanker owners to export even a single barrel of oil, since they would be unable to obtain insurance for their cargoes or ships, the sources said.

However, sources with international marine insurers told Stratfor on Dec. 12 that insurers already are holding back further approval of tanker nominations to Venezuelan oil terminals due to confusion and deteriorating safety conditions. Independent tanker chartering sources also said at least 37 tankers are now idle at Venezuelan oil terminals, awaiting cargoes.

2002-12-12T07:09:00.000-08:00

CHILE
Good news: The U.S. and Chile have signed a free trade agreement. The Chicago Tribune, VOA and the New York Times all have reports. The agreement must be approved by the U.S. Senate.

2002-12-11T08:43:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Tanker retaken: A navy commando group has boarded and taken over the striking state oil company tanker Yavire and arrested its captain, reports El Mundo.

Although the executive (Chávez) has threatened for several days to retake control of the PDVSA fleet, this is the first boarding in which a ship has been recovered. It is expected that other ships will be boarded by Navy personnel in the soon.

Aunque el Ejecutivo amenaza desde hace varios días con retomar el control de la flota de Pdvsa, esta es la primera embarcación que logran recuperar. Se espera que otros buques sean abordados por efectivos de la Armada en las próximas horas.

2002-12-11T07:53:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Media viewed: The Chicago Tribune, which has been generally pro-Chávez, has an item describing the polarized state of Venezuela's media.

2002-12-10T18:07:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Talks going poorly: Yesterday, César Gaviaria, secretary general of the Organization of American States (Organización de Estados Americanos) said the Chávez government agreed to work toward a schedule for elections in the first quarter of next year. After meetings today, he is discouraged, reports El Nacional.

After the marked optimism with which the secretary general of the OAS, César Gaviria, faced his meeting with the communications media in the hotel Meliá Monday night and communicaed that the government had shown its willingness to speak of elections, he has deflated this conviction and has branded the meeting this Tuesday as "little productive and without major achievement."

Luego del marcado optimismo con el que el secretario general de la OEA, César Gaviria, enfrentara su encuentro con los medios de comunicación en el hotel Meliá la noche del lunes y comunicara que el gobierno había mostrado su disposición a hablar de elecciones, ha visto desinflar su convencimiento y ha tildado la reunión de este martes de "poco productiva y sin mayores logros".

The country's vice president, José Vicente Rangel, spoke more positively, according to another story in El Nacional, perhaps because delay, deadlock and dashed hopes is the government's plan for the talks.

2002-12-10T17:52:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
New attacks on TV station: Chavista thugs have returned tonight to attack the headquarters of Globovisión, in La Florida, reports El Nacional.

2002-12-10T08:13:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Analysis: Bloomberg.com has a report and analysis. Bloomberg continues to be the English-language news sources most skeptical of Chávez's chances. Today's analysis is no exception:

The government said it is willing to discuss a timetable for a vote in talks brokered by the Organization of American States, Cesar Gaviria, OAS secretary general, said at a news conference. With opposition leaders demanding Chavez resign or call elections in the first three months of next year, the negotiations are likely to break down, analysts said.

"I don't see any signs that the government and opposition are near an agreement," said Benito Berber, an analyst with research company IDEAglobal in New York. "Meanwhile, great damage is being done to the economy."

And,

"He can resign--the country is coming to a complete halt," said Anibal Romero, a political science professor at Venezuela's Simon Bolivar University. "Or he can go for broke and call a state of emergency. But if he does that, no one will go back to work, neither at the oil company or elsewhere."

And,

"We have gone far beyond talks about a referendum or elections," Romero said. "The opposition is no longer talking about a referendum or elections. They want Chavez to resign."

The item notes that Venezuelan oil exports have been halted (creating gas shortages in country and leaving the government short of cash with which to pay employees), non-striking industrial operations face closure due to shortages, (Ford's Valencia assembly plant has already closed), airlines have cancelled flights, banks have reduced hours, and the subway system may close down.

Today's report in the Financial Times reflects the deepening awareness outside Venezuela that Hugo Chávez is really in trouble and may fall.

Normal economic life in oil-rich Venezuela was giving way on Monday to scenes of a country on the verge of collapse, as petrol pumps dispensed their final drops of fuel and fears began to grow at the prospect of food shortages and transport constraints.

A week-old but strengthening national strike, led by business groups, labour unions and political opponents, aimed at pressing President Hugo Chávez into holding early elections, was bringing Venezuela to a virtual standstill.

The report concludes:

Although the strike was beginning to affect daily life more seriously, and workers in more sectors appeared set to join the action, there was still no sign on Monday that the government was willing to bow to pressure and concede to early elections.

Today's New York Times concludes as follows:

But Mr. Chávez faces what political analysts have called a nearly impossible situation. He does not have the workers with know-how to staff oil installations, and an increasing number of people are announcing that they are joining the strike. The economy is already in a tailspin, with American economists predicting it could contract by more than 6 percent by the end of this year.

"This is a waiting game," said Ricardo Hausmann, an economist at Harvard and former planning minister in Venezuela. "It is expensive to hold out, but it is not clear that Chávez can hold out either. This happens in all wars. If you knew you were going to lose, you would not get into it."

Stratfor, the Texas-based private intelligence firm that projected a summer coup but lately has been empressed with Chávez's survival skills, says, in a report available via FreeRepublic.com that Chávez is looking for ways to declare a "state of exception," which would allow the military take-over of the country.

Stratfor's report begins with an overview of the obviously coordinated attacks on Venezuelan TV stations and newspapers. Then:

In response to the ruckus created by pro-regime groups, numerous middle-class neighborhoods throughout Caracas have activated self-defense plans, including blocking access roads into the neighborhoods and the deployment of armed homeowners to defend against attacks by civilian militia.

Meanwhile, military intelligence sources told Stratfor that on the evening of Dec. 9 they intercepted radio transmissions ordering armed civilian militias called the Tupamaros to launch "actions" in defense of the revolution.

Although it is not clear what those actions might entail, the sources speculated that the regime may be planning to order its elite civilian militias to fire on groups of the president's own unarmed supporters. This would create a situation in which the government could declare a state of exception and suspend constitutional liberties.

2002-12-10T07:39:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Chavistas resort to mob action: Pro-Chávez demonstrators attacked television stations and newspapers in several Venezuelan cities last night, reports El Nacional.

The headquarters of RCTV , Globovisión , El Aragüeño and TVS in Maracay, Meridiano Televisión and Venevisión were targets of pro-government demonstrators, who yesterday concentrated themselves at the doors the these communications media to protest "media terrorism" and the "lack of truthful information."

Las sedes de RCTV, Globovisión, El Aragüeño y TVS en Maracay, Meridiano Televisión y Venevisión fueron blanco de los manifestantes oficialistas, quienes ayer se concentraron a las puertas de estos medios de comunicación para protestar por “el terrorismo mediático” y la “falta de información veraz”.

Globovisión's facilities in Zulia (see map linked at right) were taken over by the mob; a mob attempted to take over Promar TV facilities in Barquisimeto (Lara, again, see map), which were successfully defended by the national guard.

Yahoo News! - AP has a story and photos, here, here, and here.

Manuel Cova, secretary general of the Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela (CTV), the national union that is one of the leaders of Venezuela's work stoppage, says that the union has received information that pro-Chávez mobs are planning "a wave of acts of vandalism and terror" ("oleada de actos vandálicos y de terror") against the union's offices throughout the country. Cova told El Nacional:

"Yesterday it was the media and today the CTV will be touched," he warned making President Hugo Chávez responsible for everything that could happen to the installations and leaders of the union organization.

He condemned the protests that government partisans conducted last night in front of the the communications media in order to intimidate journalists.

"Ayer fueron los medios y hoy le tocará a la CTV”, advirtió al hacer responsable al presidente Hugo Chávez de todo lo que pueda pasar a las instalaciones y directivos del organismo sindical.

Condenó las protestas que partidarios del Gobierno realizaron anoche frente a los medios de comunicación para intimidar a periodistas.

Pro-government groups and "commandos" working for the mayor of Coro, Rafael Pineda, are attempting to take over the oil refinery at Amuay, reports El Nacional. The groups left from Maracay, Valencia, Maracaibo and Caracas in buses paid for by the national government, the paper says. Once taken, the plan is to have the refinery run by engineering and technical students.

Over the weekend, Chávez called his supporters out into the streets to defend the revolution. Apparently they are responding.

2002-12-10T07:26:00.000-08:00

CUBA
Castro's island prison: A Cuban dissident, freed from prison in October, was arrested before a meeting of a human rights group, Yahoo! News - AP reported Sunday, quoting the man's wife. Dr. Oscar Elias Biscet was detained with 12 others. According to Biscet's wife, Elsa Morejon,

"There was going to be a meeting over topics of human rights" with people who had come from the nearby province of Matanzas, she said Saturday. But officials "did not let them enter the house where it was going to be."

She said the people who showed up lay down in the street in protest and police took them away.

Morejon said she had received no word from her husband or information from officials. "I still don't know where he is," she said.

2002-12-09T18:51:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Elections accepted? El Nacional reports that the secretary general of the Organization of American States (Organización de Estados Americanos), César Gaviaria, has announced that the Chávez government has agreed to work toward a schedule for elections in the first quarter of next year. Until now, President Hugo Chávez has refused to consider any date before August 2003, which is the first date, according to his reckoning, when a recall referendum can be held under the constitution. One important condition--government negotiators demand the "return of tranquility to the country" ("retorno de la tranquilidad del país"), that is an end to the work stoppage.

2002-12-09T18:08:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Oil and force: Today began with U.S. papers and broadcast news reports empasizing that President Hugo Chávez had authorized the military (and civilians) to force service stations to open and to confiscate fuel transport, most likely breaking the strike. This hope--the U.S. media naturally favors the anti-American, pro-Castro Chávez--arose from a failure of observation and imagination. The U.S. media appears not to have noticed what is obvious from the Venezuelan press, which is that the military has generally maintained neutrality neutrality between the government and opposition. Oh, they obey orders; units go out and guard public facilities. But, there has been no coordinated, nationwide, even Caracas-wide, crackdown on the opposition. Nor have the armed forces re-taken control of industrial facilities, notably the oil industry. Rebelious crews appear to remain in control of the state-owned oil company's tankers, rebelious workers in charge of refineries and oil fields. And the military appears to be making no attempt to run--or force workers to run--oil facilities, just to guard them against sabotage. Instead, military units have typically attempted to prevent opposing crowds from mixing it up in the streets. There are exceptions, which get reported, but as a rule the armed forces seem to be acting more like a referee than a combatant. The U.S. media seems not to have noticed because it is incapable of imagining that the Venezuelan military officers can operate in any way other than government enforcer or anti-government coup-plotter, especially imagining that the armed forces might see themselves as guardians of the country's constitution and institutions. At seven months remove, a re-reading of the April events suggests that this was the military's motive even then. High officers refused Chávez's orders to activate Plan Avila, the contingency plan to protect government buildings, and asked his resignation because it would have required them to fight civilians. Then, when the negative consequences of that decision became clear, many of these same officers brought him back. Since then the military has conspicuously refused to use its power to give victory to either side. So incidentally, have the courts, which have generally refused to force the Attorney General to prosecute Chavistas, even when they should be prosecuted, and refused to let the Attorney General prosecute four generals for military rebellion over their roles in the April events.

Today ended with the failure of Chávez's effort to use the military to force the Venezuelan oil industry back in to production, according to Bloomberg.com:

Venezuela's oil exports are "paralyzed" and refining and production by the world's fifth- largest exporter of crude may soon be halted, the state oil company's president said.

The fallout of a nationwide strike now in its second week may also lead Petroleos de Venezuela SA's creditors to demand payment of $6 billion of debt should the walkout continue, the company's President Ali Rodriguez said. Moody's Investors Service, citing the political crisis and shutdown of some of Petroleos Venezuela's operations, said today it may lower the state oil company's Ba1 credit rating.

"Oil exports are paralyzed and oil refining and production are being paralyzed,'' Rodriguez said in a televised speech. "We face a real national disaster."

Eleven of Venezuela's 21 oil tankers are idle, one of six refineries is shut (others are at-risk), production is down two-thirds. Domestic supply, which what Chávez's confiscation order was all about, are failiing too:

The strike, aimed at forcing President Hugo Chavez to resign, has caused gasoline shortages that may fuel an economic collapse and threatens to leave the government short of cash to pay workers and suppliers, Rodriguez said. The capital Caracas received 6 million liters of gasoline today, he said.

"There will be no gasoline to transport food, take children to school or take the sick to the hospital," Rodriguez said.

Despite what the U.S. press says, Chávez is losing.

2002-12-08T18:52:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Quoted in full: The following brief report appears in El Nacional:

The First Lady of the Republic, Marisabel Rodríguez Oropeza de Chávez, asked the national chief executive, Hugo Chávez, that "he respond and listen to the clamor of the people." In this way, she urged the government and the directors of the opposition that they seek a rapid and democratic end to the difficult situation that--according to her--exists in Venezuela.

The First Lady of the Republic, explained that she maintained with the way in which they were carrying some matters in "the course headed by the government." Moreover, in the name of her daughter Rosinés Chávez, she asked the President and the National Executive that he respond and begin to take measures with respect to the recent violent events occurring in different parts of the country.

"President, in the name of your daughter, of your family and of the country I ask you that you listen to the people. Ministers listen to the people. Opposition, seek sisdom. Secretary general of the Organization of American States, help in what you can serve as mediator, Venezuela asks shouting that this be your aim," she added to be interviewed for Promar television, from her house in Barquisimeto.

At the same time, she called on the pople of Venezuela that they have faith that the country is going to advance before "it costs us our own security." "This could be the last time that I speak to Venezuela in thise conditions, so, I hope that everyone that is in power respond. We don't want to continue living in a country where intolerance is our everyday bread."

La primera dama de la República, Marisabel Rodríguez Oropeza de Chávez, pidió al primer mandatario nacional, Hugo Chávez, que "reaccione y escuche el clamor del pueblo". De esta manera, instó al Gobierno y a los dirigentes de oposición a que busquen una salida rápida y democrática a la difícil situación que--según ella--vive Venezuela.

La primera dama de la República, explicó que mantenía diferencias con la manera en que se estaban llevando algunos asuntos en el "proceso encabezado por el Gobierno". Además, en nombre de su hija Rosinés Chávez, pidió al Presidente y al Ejecutivo Nacional que reaccione y empiece a tomar medidas con respecto a los últimos acontecimientos violentos ocurridos en diferentes regiones del país.

"Presidente, en nombre de su hija, de su familia y del país le pido que oiga al pueblo. Ministros oigan al pueblo. Oposición, busquen la prudencia. Secretario general de la OEA, ayude en lo que pueda y sirva de mediador, Venezuela pide a gritos que sea objetivo", agregó al ser entrevistada por Promar televisión, desde su casa en Barquisimeto.

Asimismo, llamó al pueblo de Venezuela a que tenga fe en que el país va a salir adelante antes de que "nos cueste nuestra propia seguridad". "Esta pudiera ser la última vez que le hable a Venezuela en estas condiciones, por eso, espero que todas las personas que están en el poder reaccionen. No queremos seguir viviendo en un país en donde la intolerancia es el pan nuestro de cada día."

Astonishing.

2002-12-08T18:15:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Situation report: Stratfor, the private intelligence firm has a new situation report out, available via FreeRepublic.com. The report notes several developments, including the issuance of a resolution authorizing "military and civilian personnel to seize control of tanker trucks used to transport gasoline from tank farms to retail gasoline outlets." "Civilian personnel" could include members of the infamous Bolivarian Circles. The report also notes that 26 tankers are now stranded on the Orinoco River (see map linked at right), through which Venezuela's iron, steel and aluminum exports pass and that international airlines have cut flights to the minimum. And about the oil idustry:

23:49 GMT - Sources in Caracas tell Stratfor that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has decided not to appoint a new board of directors at Petroleos de Venezuela for the time being, seeking instead to concentrate all decision-making power in the hands of PDVSA President Ali Rodriguez. Chavez appears to have two objectives. First, he needs to contain the rapidly escalating political crisis within PDVSA by not appointing board members that striking managers already have said they would not accept. The second objective apparently is to neutralize Rodriguez politically, given his viability as a potential successor to Chavez, one source said.

23:45 GMT - The Venezuelan Petroleum Chamber, whose members include all private local and foreign companies that provide services to Petroleos de Venezuela, voted Dec. 8 to join the national strike against President Hugo Chavez after a heated six-hour meeting in which the chamber's president, Luis Rodriguez, attempted to water down endorsement of the strike or criticism of Chavez. According to Stratfor sources with first-hand knowledge of the meeting, Rodriguez is "extremely close" to PDVSA President Ali Rodriguez -- although they are not related -- and has been accused of obtaining sweetheart geophysics contracts from PDVSA and the Energy and Mines Ministry in return for supporting the Chavez regime.

2002-12-08T14:59:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Shooter Chavista:A confessed Plaza Altamira shooter named Joao De Gouveia has been linked with Freddy Bernal, mayor of the Liberador municipality and ardent Chavista, via a video tape showing the two together during a demonstration at the headquarters of the state oil company, PDVSA. In response, reports El Nacional, President Hugo Chávez is threatenting to take action against the country's independent television stations.

He classified the tape as a montage, alleging that "this man" entered the country on the fifth of December, three hours after the moment when the images were captured , and shows documents from the immigration service that support this information.

The president also doubted that the Mayor Bernal is who appears in the tape, although he admitted that the official called him to communicate to him that he would appear at the the place "worried with security in Caracas" and for the people that defended the headquarters of PDVSA in La Campiña.

Calificó la cinta como un montaje, alegando que "ese señor" entró al país el 5 de diciembre, trece horas después del momento cuando se captaron las imágenes, y mostró documentos del servicio migratorio que respaldan esta información.

El presidente también dudó de que el alcalde Bernal sea quien aparece en la cinta, aunque reconoció que el funcionario lo llamó para comunicarle que asistiría al lugar "preocupado con la seguridad en Caracas" y por el pueblo que defendía la sede de Pdvsa en La Campiña.

El Nacional reports that Venezuelan banks will not open tomorrow, giving as reason national mourning--declared by the opposition--for the deaths at Altamira.

2002-12-07T16:29:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Eyewitness account: FreeReputlic.com has an excellent first person account of events in Venezuela, including the shootings at the Plaza Francia de Altamira.

2002-12-06T19:23:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Martyrs: El Universal reports that four attackers killed three anti-Chávez demonstrators and injured about 28 others in the Plaza Francia de Altamira. The Plaza Altamira is the site of an six-week-old encampment by military dissidents.

Quoting the chief of the Policía de Chacao (the locality in which Plaza Altamira is located), Leonardo Díaz Paruta, the paper says one of the four alleged shooters has been detained.

In response, according to El Nacional,

In several neighborhoods of the city of Caracas, opposition partisans went out into the streets to protest against this action. Despite the call of the municipal authorities (to stay away), the Plaza Francia was newly filled with anti-government demonstrators.

En varias urbanizaciones de la ciudad de Caracas, partidarios opositores salieron a la calle a protestar contra esta acción. A pesar del llamado de las autoridades municipales, la plaza Francia se llenó de nuevo de manifestantes antigobierno.

Also in response,

Opposition leaders have annuonced the intensification of protest actions this weekend. They are calling for several street demonstrations tomorrow, while Carlos Ortega (head of the national union CTV) announced from the platform of the Plaza Altamire that he will propose to the elements that make up the Democratic Coordinator the definitive activation of an indefinite general strike. This suggestion has been supported by multiple representatives of the anti-Chavista elements.

Líderes opositores han anunciado la intensificación de las acciones de protesta para este fin de semana. Convocan para mañana varias manifestaciones de calle, mientras Carlos Ortega anunció desde la tarima de la Plaza Altamira que propondrá a los factores de la Coordinadora Democrática la activación definitiva de una huelga general indefinida. La propuesta ha sido respaldada por múltiples representantes de los factores antichavistas.

Yahoo! News - Reuters has a report and photos, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

A BBC story reports that clashes have occurred elsewhere in the country.

Hundreds of pro-Chavez demonstrators attacked the offices of the El Siglo newspaper in the central city of Maracay, fuelling fears of growing political violence.

"They had guns and rocks. They broke all the windows up to the fourth floor and cut the electricity," managing editor Mireya de Zurita told AFP news agency.

Both the Yahoo! - Reuters and BBC reports describe Chávez opponents as the country's rich and middle class and indicate he has huge popularity among the poor. Once true, this no longer is, if recent polls (such as one noted in El Sur on November 15) are to be credited.

2002-12-06T12:54:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Non-negotiation negotiations: El Nacional now says that the government is rejecting a return to the bargaining table. Rather, says Venezuela's ambassador to the Organization of American States (whose secretary general is attempting to mediate in talks) Jorge Valero, the government is seeking to meet to explore conditions that would permit a resumption of negotiations.

Today's photos from Yahoo! News include pictures of demonstrations around struck oil tankers, here, here, here, here,here, here, and here, as well as other stoppage related events, here, here, here, here,here, here and here.

2002-12-06T08:57:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Day 5: Venezuela's nationwide work stoppage is in its fifth day and apparently is having significant negative effects on the country's oil industry. As a result, the two two sides have agreed to resume talks, mediated by the secretary general of the Organization of American States, César Gaviria. Anything can still happen. So it's still too early for either side to claim victory. However, it is increasingly clear that the opposition has upper hand and will be able to extract conditions not possible a week ago. The departure of President Hugo Chávez is not among the concessions Hugo Chávez likely to grant. There is a good chance the opposition can obtain a concession that will significantly advance its Hugo Chávez removal project--his agreement to a consultative referendum on or around February 2, asking the question, should Hugo Chávez be asked to resign.

Current reports on the Venezuelan situation include a report from Bloomberg.com reporting that it was Chávez who sought the return to the bargaining table. Why? According to the item,

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, facing a rebellion from the nation's merchant marine, called on the Organization of American States to mediate a conflict that threatens to choke shipments from the fifth-largest oil exporter.

A later report from
Bloomberg.com, indicates that the course of events is very positive for the opposition.

"The government is returning to the negotiating table because it has no other alternative," (Manuel) Cova (of the Confederation of Venezuelan Workers)said.

And,

"The country has become ungovernable," said Vitali Meschoulam, an analyst with Eurasia Group, a political risk research company in New York. "That is something Chavez has to recognize."

The effect of the job action on oil production and shipment is the reason.

In Venezuela, El Universal reports that pro-Chávez demonstrators appeared at the headquarters of Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), the state oil company, protesting the blockade of oil shipments by PDVSA oil tanker crews. The paper says the protest is peaceful. However, it is taking place at the end point of a previously announced march by Coordinadora Democrática.

The government has guaranteed oil deliveries to the United States, according to El Nacional.

Government opponents are alleging--and denouncing--government efforts investigate banking transactions of government opponents, including public officials, dissident military officers and government administrators. National Assembly Deputy Liliana Hernández, of the Justice First party, released a document sent by the country's bank superintendent to banks containing the names of persons to investigate, reports El Nacional.

The measure affects the majority of the magistrates of the Supreme Court, directors of the National Electoral Council, directors of businesses and members of political parties. Outstanding among these is found the president of the top electoral organization, Alfredo Avella, the president of Fedecámaras, Carlos Fernández, and the generals Enrique Medina Gómez and Néstor González González.

La medida afecta a la mayoría de los magistrados del TSJ, los directivos del Consejo Nacional Electoral, dirigentes empresariales y miembros de los partidos políticos. Resaltó que entre ellos se encuentra el presidente del máximo órgano comicial, Alfredo Avella; el presidente de Fedecámaras, Carlos Fernández; y los generales Enrique Medina Gómez y Néstor González González.

General Enrique Medina Gómez is leader of the dissident military encampment in the Plaza Altamira. The First Justice deputy said such an investigation is an express violation of the constitution.

2002-12-05T19:25:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Oil III: Bloomberg.com has a late update on the situation in Venezuela's oil industry in the fourth day of the nationwide work stoppage.

El Universal reports that the stoppage will continue for another day.

Meanwhile, also according to El Universal, the secretary general of the Organization of American States, César Gaviria, is attempting to get the government and opposition back to the negotiating table.

Despits Gaviria's diplomacy, serious negotiations are unlikely, however, until the sides have tested each other's strength. The outcome of the job action will dictate the degree to which each side needs to compromise. If the action succeeds, Chávez almost has to agree to a referendum. If the action fails, the opposition will take months to regroup.

2002-12-05T14:28:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Oil II: Stratfor, the Texas-based private intelligence firm has two recent analyses out.

The first, released yesterday and available via FreeRepublic.com, reports that an oil blockade is underway in Venezuela.

The second, released today and also available via FreeRepublic.com, suggests that disruption to the oil industry is spreading and the government is responding by militarizing the industry.

However, militarizing PDVSA will not necessarily end the company's growing difficulties because the troops don't know how to operate the complex networks of oil fields and pipelines, gas compression plants, refineries, tank farms and loading terminals. Chavez threatened to imprison PDV-Marina officials and crew members who idled six tankers in Lake Maracaibo, threats of arrest probably will not force oil workers to return to their jobs.

This is a major challenge for the Chávez government.

If the Chavez regime is unable to reverse PDVSA's gradual shutdown within the next two days, exports of crude oil and unleaded gasoline to the United States likely will suffer some disruptions within five days or less, driving up U.S. gasoline prices mainly in Gulf Coast and Southeast states.

Also, the political implications for Chavez if PDVSA shuts down a substantial portion of its production and refining operations could be devastating.

For instance, the national strike already has disrupted deliveries of basic food products such as beef and milk to thousands of small bakeries, butcher shops and neighborhood grocery stores where most lower-income Venezuelans buy their food.

2002-12-05T05:16:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Oil: The government is increasingly worried about the ability of the state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), to continue to produce and ship oil and oil products, reports El Universal. The paper says oil production and delivery was the subject of an extended meeting attended by President Hugo Chávez, Vice President José Vicente Rangel, and the ministers of Energy and Mines and Education, government party assembly deputies and the President of PDVSA, Alí Rodríguez Araque.

2002-12-03T18:24:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Stratfor analysis: The private intelligence analysis firm Stratfor (Stratfor.com) says it is likely the work action will peter out by the end of the week and President Hugo Chávez will survive into 2003. Except,

if PDVSA workers were to strike en masse and shut down the production and export of the country's oil for a week or more, Chavez's political problems would balloon exponentially.

In any case, Stratfor analysts believe, the country will become increasingly difficult to govern and Chávez will be gone before the end of 2003. That will not end Venezuela's problems, however. For one thing,

a military insurrection against Chavez likely would be led by mid-level officers -- majors, captains and lieutenants -- who probably will not accept the continued leadership of their senior commanders, according to Stratfor military sources. Not only would this fit Venezuela's historical pattern, but these sources say there is also a growing sense among middle-grade officers that higher-ranking officers -- including many who have been encamped at Plaza Altamira in Caracas for the past five weeks -- are looking out first for their own political and personal interests.

Stratfor's analysis is available by subscription, here via FreeRepublic.com.

2002-12-03T17:57:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Protests: Widespread protests have begun to appear around the country, reports El Nacional. Among the locations, the headquarters of the PDVSA, the state-owned oil company, the National Guard headquarters and the Plaza Altamira, where dissident military officers have been encamped for the last month. In addition, the paper says protests have been held in Maracaibo, Punto Fijo and Valencia (see map linked at right).

The confrontation at PDVSA headquarters began when demonstrators appeared to support Juan Fernández, a director of PDVSA, who was assaulted early Tuesday morning "under very strange conditions" ("en condiciones muy extrañas"). Since the oil company's offices are among the "zones of security" (zonas de seguridad") established by the government, a unit of the National Guard was sent in to eject the demonstrators. Later, the demonstrators recovered their positions when the guard returned to the center of Caracas. Print and electronic journalists were injured in the conflict, the paper says.

In the same story, Venezuelan Workers Confederation official Adolfo Padrón is quoted as saying that the work stoppage is 75 per cent effective around the country. He admitted, however, that some businesses have reopened, citing threats to their operating licenses by the government.

Bloomberg.com reports the following comments from Robert Bottome, an analyst with research company Veneconomy, by phone from Caracas:

"As long as the government avoids the temptation to become violent, it has everything to gain. Support for the strike was good, but not absolutely solid across the board. But the minute they start doing stupid things like this, they are creating a situation that can only shoot themselves in the foot. The government overreacted by sending the national guard to break up the opposition demonstration. I expect the strike to be extended because this is the kind of thing that strengthens people's resolve. If the government had played it cool and let people demonstrate, by Thursday people would have said this isn't getting them anywhere.

"I think there won't be any gasoline by Friday and I imagine exports will be slowing. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I think time is on the side of the strikers." (emphasis added)

2002-12-03T13:23:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Referendum, on again?: Quoting Alfredo Avella, president of the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, or CNE), El Universal reports that the body will approve with a majority vote a February 2 advisor referendum (referendo consultivo) on the tenure in office of President Hugo Chávez. The opposition submitted signatures November 4. The CNE approved the referendum and the date on November 27, by a vote of three for, one abstaining and two absent. However the Venezuelan supreme court ruled that an absolute majority--four--affirmative votes was needed, under the law. Apparently, the fourth vote is not available.

2002-12-03T12:59:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Strike, day II:

A report from Bloomberg.com suggests that the work action has had the effect of disrupting gasoline deliveries in Venezuela and for export.

The walkout disrupted overseas gasoline shipments from state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA's Puerto la Cruz refinery, which usually produces 203,000 barrels a day. Strike leaders said gasoline supplies would begin to run out today in Caracas after truck drivers joined the strike yesterday.

"We are loading gasoline in a few tankers, but it's slower than normal," Gabriel Garcia, operations manager the Puerto la Cruz refinery, said in an interview. "Yesterday we didn't load any tankers."

The oil industry is key to both sides. Says El Universal:

If the stoppage goes beyond Wednesday, the gasoline and gas will begin to fall short and the government will have to confront the imminence of an energy collapse capable of stopping the functioning of the country and creating general chaos.

Si el paro va más allá del día miércoles, la gasolina y el gas comenzarán a escasear y el Gobierno tendrá que enfrentar la inminencia de un colapso energético capaz de detener el funcionamiento del país y crear un caos general.

The BBC reports that Venezuela's leading newspapers, El Universal and El Nacional, have joined the work stoppage and will not be putting out editions. Fortunately for interested parties overseas, internet publication will continue. The BBC story also notes the government and opposition sides absolutely disagree about the success of the action, with the organizers of the action reporting 80 per cent participation and official sources reporting that 80 per cent are working.

Yahoo! News - AP says the work action is escalating. By this is meant, apparently, there are an increasing number of confrontations. Photos from Yahoo! News, here, here, here, here, here, and here, give an idea of the contention.

Other photos, here, here, here, and here, show conflict between those seeking to enforce the stoppage and those seeking to break it.

2002-12-03T12:22:00.000-08:00

CHILE
Free Trade: Yesterday's Wall Street Journal (no link, A2 in the Eastern Edition) reports that U.S. and Chilean negotiators are about to meet in Washington to complete negotiations on a free trade agreement between the two countries. What's interesting is Chile's strategy.

Trade between the two countries is "small potatoes," according to the paper, particularly in comparison with trade between Mexico and the U.S.

Thus, while Nafta released an avalanche of foreign investment to Mexico--and plenty of merger activity, including by the likes of Unilever and Nestle--free trade between the U.S. and Chile will likely yield more subtle results. Put another way: If Nafta was the Big Bang that integrated the U.S. and Mexico, then tying the U.S. to Chile means igniting a string of tiny boomlets that may take years to ripple across the region.

That, at least, is what Chileans predict. While U.S.-Chilean commerce is unlikely to grow significantly beyond today's $6 billion in bilateral trade, Chile sees a distant payoff: When Latin American free trade is in full flower, Chile emerges as a hub for more than 500 million trading partners.

Chile already has free trade deals with Mexico, Colombia, Canada and--importantly and recently, the European Union--and is working on agreements with New Zealand, Singapore and South Korea. At the center of a nest of such agreements Chile expects to become an exchange point among such countries and its Latin American neighbors. For example:

Chile's future as a product specialist also appeals to General Motors. Today GM assembles vehicles in seven Latin countries--Mexico, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia an Ecuador. Because of tarrifs and other import barriers, most plants have a captive market, and so purduce a slew of models. GM Chile, however, produces just one model--a pickup truck, which it also exports to Mexico.

Local director Nicolas Wsevolojskoy says a U.S.-Chile trade deal won't merely let GM import truck parts from the U.S., but will change the way GM sees Latin America. His own exports will increase not that Chile has extended its trade pact with Brazil, which in turn will force other GM plants to specialize.

That is, not only will a free trade agreement with Chile encourage other such agreements; it will encourage effeciency and rationalization in every country with which Chile has such an agreement, whether or not there is such an agreement with the United States.

2002-12-02T08:24:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Strike II:

1. One response of the Chávez government to the nationwide strike/lockout is the Great Bolivarian Christmas Mega-Market (Gran Megamercado Navideño Bolivariano), a blocks-long, outdoor market along in in the Avenida Bolívar. Military personnel closed access to the street early this morning, according to El Universal.

2. Bloomberg.com's report on the stoppage emphasizes the importance of the oil industry. The item quotes the 82 per cent "level of paralyzation" in the oil industry, cited in the preceeding post. Then:

"If the oil workers strike, it's a huge blow to the government," said Benito Berber, an analyst with research company IDEAglobal in New York.

And:

The success of the strike may rest with the country's oil workers, analysts said. The oil industry accounts for about 30 percent of gross domestic product, half of government revenue and 80 percent of exports. Venezuela is the fourth-largest exporter of oil to the U.S.

3. Today's Wall Street Journal (International section, no link) looks at "military chic" in Latin America, that is "signs that Latin taboos against military involvement in politics are loosening." The paper cites Ecuador and Paraguay as examples of countries where one-time leaders of failed military coups have entered electoral politics. Most significantly, the piece suggests that "South America's newfound political maturity and commitment to democratic rule faces a major test in Venezuela." Oddly, the article focuses less on Hugo Chávez--former officer and leader of a failed military coup in 1992--than Enrique Medina Gomez, leader of the dissident officers camped out in the Plaza Altamira. (See El Sur, here, here, here, here, here, here and here) for the Altamira story. El Nacional also has a special section on the Plaza Altamira military dissidents.) And, the Journal fails to note that, in contrast with military dictators of the past, the current crop of comes mainly from the populist left.

2002-12-02T07:35:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Strike: Opponents of the government of President Hugo Chávez are calling the nationwide strike/lockout (paro) a success. Despite earlier promises of an indefinite work action, orgainzers now say they aren't sure how long the action will last.

Manuel Cova, secretary general of the Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela, for example, is quoted in El Universal saying, "The stoppage has been a total success" ("El paro ha sido un éxito total").

"More than 16 million Venezuelans are supporting this stoppage who demand a democratic solution to this crisis and who demand that this happens by means of an election," he affirmed.

"Más de 16 millones de venezolanos están respaldando este paro que exige una salida democrática a esta crisis y que exige que se haga por vía electoral", afirmó.

According to the paper, the "level of paralyzation is as follows:

By State:

Amazonas 80%, Anzoátegui 90%, Apure 80%, Aragua 85%, Barinas 75%, Bolívar 60%, Carabobo 80%, Carúpano 70%, Cojedes 80%, Cumaná 75%, Delta Amacuro 70%, Distrito Capital 70%, Falcón 85%, Guárico 82%, Lara 80%, Mérida 70%. Miranda 90%, Monagas 90%, Nueva Esparta 85%, Portuguesa 87%, Táchira 80%, Trujillo 75%, Vargas 85%, Yaracuy 80% y Zulia 90%.

By major sector:

Education 92%, Health 90%, Public 80%, Oil 82%, Transportation 55%, Commerce 90%, Construction 95%, Communication 85%, Mtals production 70%, Brewing and soft drinks 90% and Plastics.

A key sector is oil. If the oil industry is indeed 82 per cent paralyzed, and stays that way, the action will indeed be a great success. In response to the stoppage, top management of the Venezuelan oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) has put in place a contingency plan to ensure the continued flow of oil, El Universal reports. According to the company, operations are proceeding normally.

Yahoo! News has photos from Caracas, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here. Activity appears much reduced.

2002-11-29T12:16:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Militarization: In today's Americas column in the Wall Street Journal (no link, in the paper only), Mary Anastasia O'Grady looks at the way President Hugo Chávez undermined and then took over control of the Metropolitan Police. Her main source is Ivan Simonovis, chief of the Metropolitan Police from September 2002 to April 2002, when he resigned. Of events during and since April 2002, when Chávez was first deposed and then brought back, O'Grady says:

Radical chavistas, it seems, had infiltrated the police force. More specifically, Chávez supporters from "Bolivarian circles," who are trained to enforce adherence to Chávez doctrines, "are inside the police," says Mr. Sinonovis. "I identified 19 officers who were working for Freddy Bernal (a militant pro-Chávez politician in Caracas)." The former chief says he had tried to clean house but only some of the infiltrators were fired.

After April 11, he says he tried again to get rif of the others but the Mayor (Alfredo Pena) refused. On April 15, Mr. Simonivos resigned...

In October, a small number of officers took control of the city's police command center using the pretext of a labor dispute with the city. On Nov. 16, before dawn, Mr. Chávez sent his National Guard and the army to take over the police force on the grounds that Mr. Pena had lost control.

Mr. Simonovis contends that the whole chain of events was the work of the pro-Chávez radicals inside the police force that he had warned against. He says that they used the city's budget and payroll problems as an excuse to militate against the mayor. It is also worth noting that since Mr. Pena's police payroll depends on disbursements from the national government, revenue shortfalls might originate with the president, for political reasons, or with his economically feckless government that is short of cash.

If the reason is the latter it raises another reason why Mr. Chávez may be so determined to militarize. He has totally trashed the economy...It increasingly looks like armed force might be the only way he can maintain the absolute power he seeks.

2002-11-29T08:56:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Job action ON: Carlos Ortega, president of the Venezuelan Workers Confederation (Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela, or CTV) says that the supreme court's decision against a consultative referendum will stimulate the strike, reports El Nacional.

"To this little coup d'etat that the supreme court gave civil society, one must give a forceful response next Monday," affirmed Ortega, who opined that the judicial decision forms part of an alleged "terrorist plan" against the opposition put in action by the government.'

There is not justice here. There is no other end than to take to the street in response to the antidemocratic attitude of the regime," he said. He declared that the Coordinator (Democratic Coordinator) will define "in a few hours the duration and reach" of the general strike.

"Con este golpecito (de Estado) que da el Supremo a la sociedad civil, hay que dar una respuesta contundente el próximo lunes", afirmó Ortega, quien opinó que el dictamen judicial forma parte de un supuesto "plan terrorista" contra la oposición puesto en marcha por el Gobierno.

"Aquí no hay justicia. No hay otra salida que la toma de la calle en respuesta a esta actitud antidemocrática del régimen", dijo. Declaró que la Coordinadora definirá "en las próximas horas la duración y alcance" del paro general.

El Nacional, citing Carlos Fernández, president of the business group Fedecámaras, reports that the Democratic Coordinator (Coordinadora Democrática ) will announce tomorrow "the 'actions and conditions' that will accompany the national civic strike/lockout" ("las 'acciones y condiciones' que acompañarán el paro cívico nacional").

2002-11-29T08:42:00.000-08:00

COLOMBIA
Drug war idea: Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has a new idea for prosecuting the war on drugs, says Miami Herald columnist Andres Oppenheimer. Nationwide drug testing--in the United States. Oppenheimer interviewed him and says he's serious.

2002-11-29T06:43:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Other matters: Legal maneuvering over the referendum is the most important, but not the only news out of Venezuela. In other matters:

1. Mediation between the government and opposition, conducted by OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria has been "dominated by 'recriminations' between government and opposition negotiators" ("dominado por 'recriminaciones' entre los negociadores del Gobierno y la oposición"), according to El Universal, citing Gaviria.

Under these conditions he had no difficulty affirming that "we have not advanced in a substantive way any aspects that are on the table. In fundamental subjects and about the situation (intervention in the Metropolitan Police, militarization of Caracas and the strike/lockout) we are blocked.

Ante esta situación no dudó en afirmar que 'no hemos avanzado de manera sustantiva en ninguno de los aspectos que tiene esta Mesa. En los temas de fondo y en la coyuntura (intervención de la Policía Metropolitana, militarización de Caracas y el paro) estamos trancados'.

2. Unemployment has reached 18 per cent, reports El Universal, citing a study by Datanálisis, which corresponds with government estimates.

2002-11-29T06:28:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
On again, off again: Yesterday, the National Electoral Council approved a February 2 consultative referendum, on the question on the issue of whether President Hugo Chávez should resign. Then, the Venezuelan supreme court "torpedoed" (torpedeado) the election, reports El Universal.

The paper says the CNE's decision approving the referendum was illegal because it occurred by a vote of three in favor, one abstaining and two absent (having left before the vote), while the law requires a majority, or four votes in favor. The paper also leaves some room for hope that the referendum can be revived. Only the February 2 date was approved with three votes; the question (reproduced in a post just below) was approved with four votes, and remains valid, according to El Universal. Clearly, there is a way to go before the issue is closed.

Failure of the opposition's referendum strategy would be a very big victory for Hugo Chávez.

The referendum presented a big problem for Chávez. He has repeatedly said he would not resign, no matter what the outcome, because, in his view, no referendum on his performance is constitutional before next August. However, every poll indicates he would have lost a consultative election. The probably outcome was, therefore, a repudiated, weakened president refusing to respect the will of the people.

The Supreme Court's decision saves Chávez this embarrassment and leaves the opposition without a clear strategy. A nationwide strike/lockout has been called for December 2. It is to be indefinite in length. It plays to Chávez's strength--his near monopoly of the instruments of violence. One of two outcomes is likely. First, the job action peters out after a few days, as government threats and Chavista intimidation make success appear increasingly remote. Second, there is increasing chaos, which permits Chávez crack down--a self-coup (autogolpe). If the opposition calls off the action, or limits it, is appears weak though it lives to fight another day. Then, the opposition faces the question of what to do to keep up hope after defeat until August, hoping Chávez will then honor his constitution's promise of a referendum. Truly a set of hard choices.

Bloomberg.com has a brief report in English.

2002-11-27T07:29:00.000-08:00

SOUTH AMERICAN POLITICS
Left-populist coupsters gain: A Center for Stragetic and International Studies report examines the success of "military firebrands" and finds "a crisis of democracy in much of the region."

Yet the appeal of military strongmen is attributable to more than just a lack of strong and credible political parties. It also may be symptomatic of a conscious or unconscious desire on the part of electorates to return to the old days of authoritarian regimes. Alarmingly, it appears that there is a yearning among some segments of society for the kind of law and order that existed in the days before democracy was restored...

There is also an economic nostalgia for the days of old that this new breed of populist military politicians is capitalizing on. Some believe that only a strong leader can rid a country of corruption and undertake needed economic reforms....

But,

Governments led by former coup leaders are likely to be inherently less stable than those headed by non military leaders, for they invite violent actions by those who deem them not to be fully legitimate. Here again, Venezuela is an example. The alternatives available to voters in countries such as Ecuador and Paraguay, where some of the political parties are quite discredited, may not be much more appealing. But the dangers should not be overlooked. The growing clout of such politicians, should it spread elsewhere, would be alarming indeed and constitute a bad omen for democracy in the region.

2002-11-27T07:24:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Strike or election:

Manuel Cova, secretary general of the Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela, said that the union and the Democratic Coordinator (Coordinadora Democrática) would change their call for a nationwide job action if the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, or CNE) accepts the opposition's signatures and announces the date of a consultative referendum on the tenure of President Hugo Chávez, reports El Universal. Cova also invited the government to put an alternative electoral scheme up for negotiation.

A decision on whether the opposition has gathered the required 1.2 million signatures is expected tomorrow, reports El Universal in another story. According to the paper, one million signatures have been validated, 300,000 have been thrown out. The question that would be posed to voters is:

Do you agree to request the president of the republic, citizen Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías that he immediately and voluntarily resign his office?

¿Está usted de acuerdo con solicitar al Presidente de la República, ciudadano Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, que de manera inmediata renuncie voluntariamente a su cargo?

The Chicago Tribune suggests that, as much as anything, it is Chávez's mouth that has him in trouble.

2002-11-27T07:15:00.000-08:00

CHILE
Left's margin cut: The Chilean left's margin in Congress is likely to narrow to one seat, jeopardizing such initiatives as tax increases, spending increases and changes to Pinochet-era rules that tend to restrict the left's freedom of action, reports Bloomberg.com. The reason, five left-coalition (Concertación) members of Chile's national congress have been caught taking bribes and are being stripped of their seats.

2002-11-25T15:28:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Update: According to El Universal, the National Electoral Commission (CNE) has verified 66 per cent of the signatures needed for a consultative referendum on the tenure of President Hugo Chávez.

Also according to El Universal Venezuela's opposition parties have agreed to support the nationwide strike/lockout called by the Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela union, the Fedecámaras business organization and Coordinadora Democrática, the opposition umbrella orgainzing group. Not all would go foward with the work action if the CNE finds that there are sufficient signatures for a referendum.
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According to still another report in El Universal, 59 per cent of Venezuelans support an indefinite strike/lockout. This number comes from a poll of 1,199 registered voters age 18 and over, in seven large cities (Anzoátegui, Aragua, Carabobo, Lara, Táchira, Zulia and metropolitan Caracas) conducted by Cifras Encuestadora (CECA). Twenty-six per cent oppose the action; 15 per cent are undecided. Interestingly, when the researchers asked respondents who they would support as president if an election was being held today, the leading candidate was Hugo Chávez, at 19 per cent. This appears to be his beadrock support. Problem is, though Chávez's supporters are now few, they are increasingly violent.

A new pro-Chávez armed group threatening violence appeared yesterday. What's unusual, is that this is a group of women. They announced themselves to the paper El Mundo yesterday, threatening to go out into the streets to break up the December 2 strike/lockout. A photo of the armed women at their press conference with reporters from El Mundo is here.

Finally, according to El Nacional, the national guard will remain on the streets in Caracas until members of the Metropolitan Police agree to accept their new Chavista masters. Yahoo! News - AP has a report in English.

2002-11-25T14:55:00.000-08:00

COLOMBIA
Peace talks: The Colombian government has opened talks with one of the country's three illegal armies, the right-wing United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia or AUC), reports the BBC News. According to El Tiempo, talks are conditioned on the AUC forces ceasing to commit crimes. The Financial Times has a report on this development in English.

El Tiempo also reports that President Álvaro Uribe has decided to send an envoy to meet representatives of the Colombia's largest illegal army, the communist Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), in Venezuela. The purpose of the meeing is to arrange a prisoner exchange.

2002-11-25T14:44:00.000-08:00

CUBA
Binging: Cuba is buying American foodstuffs like there's no tomorrow, reports Bloomberg.com. Among the biggest sellers, U.S. subsidy farmer Archer Daniels Midland Co., which no doubt will want a bailout when the Cuban government fails to pay.

2002-11-20T13:11:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Update:

1. Yahoo! News - AP reports that Chávez remains confident despite ever increasing turmoil. A possible reason: he believes violence can save him.

2. Monday's Financial Times reports on Chávez's Bolivarian bitter enders.

Recent polls suggest Mr Chávez's approval rating among the poor stands at some 30 per cent, most of whom are Chavistas who remain relentlessly faithful despite Venezuela's deepening economic woes and an increase in poverty under El Comandante.

But Lina and her comrades have a job to do: to stop the 70 per cent of Venezuelans who, to varying degrees, oppose Mr Chávez and who are becoming ever more determined to oust him from office before elections due in 2006.

Actually, according to a recent Datanálisis poll (described in detail in El Sur last Friday), only 19 per cent of Venezuelans are hard-core Chavistas. Another 10 per cent are moderately pro-Chávez. But that 19 per cent can cause a lot of trouble.

Yahoo! News has a photo of guardsmen guarding a police station, here.

2002-11-20T13:07:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Attorney General denies resigning: According to El Universal, Attorney General Marisol Plaza denies she is resigning or has been asked to resign.

In her judgement, what occurred was due to the "intention of third parties to create confusion in the national political environment" and the "confusion created on Tuesday afternoon by the suspension of a press conference" called by her office "to make an announcement of interest to the people generally."

A su juicio, lo ocurrido se debió a la ''intención de terceros por crear confusión en el ambiente político nacional'' y a la ''confusión creada el día martes en la tarde por la suspensión de una rueda de prensa'' convocada por su despacho para ''hacer un anuncio de interés para la colectividad en general''.

Admitting that the press conference was cancelled at the request of high officials, Plaza denied that the conference or its cancellation had anything to do with her opposition to the government takeover of the Metropolitan Police.

2002-11-20T06:20:00.001-08:00

VENEZUELA
News reports in English: Recent reports on the crisis in Venezuela, in English, include reports from the Miami Herald, the Washington Post, and the Financial Times.

Yahoo! News -AP reports today that anti-Chávez demonstrators have blocked a busy highway in Caracas with cars, trucks and flaming piles of trash to protest the takeover of the Metropolitan Police.

2002-11-20T06:20:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Attorney General opposed takeover of police: President Hugo Chávez has asked for the resignation of Venezuela's Attorney General reports El Universal. He did so, the paper reports because the Attorney General, Marisol Plaza, opposed the national government's takeover of the Metropolitan Police.

The official was never consulted over the legality of the resolution that permitted intervention in the PM, before it was publicly announced, according to informants, who assured that among the criticisms she made is one according to which it was necessary to decree a state of exception, ir order to take measures such as that taken Saturday.

La funcionaria nunca habría sido consultada sobre la legalidad de la resolución que permitió intervenir a la PM, antes de que ésta fuera anunciada públicamente, según los informantes, quienes aseguraron que entre las críticas por ella efectuadas se encuentra una según la cual era necesario decretar un estado de excepción, para tomar medidas como las del sábado.

That is, Plaza's opposition wasn't primarily one or prudence but rather one of legality. Government sources, on the other hand, say Plaza's resignation is being sought over another issue entirely, the government's failure to get the the Supreme Court to block the opposition's effort to obtain a consultative referendum.

Plaza would be disposed to leave her post without conflict, in spite of the words that the Chief of State had made against her, during a meeting with other officials, in which he denigrated her conduct before the Supreme Court and stated openly that he intended to seek her resignation.

The state attorney had convoked a press conference for Tuesday, at 5 p.m., in which whe was to make a "grave" announcement to the country, but it was suspended.

High government sources explained that the silence of the attorney was agreed to, on request of the chief of staff, General Carlos Martínez Mendoza, who had considered the meeting of Marisol Plaza with the media inconvenient.

The worry among high officials, about the Attorney General's evential statements, is that they aggravated, since they would take place simultaneously with the meeting that, through the mediation of Gaviria, was to be held by the government and the mayors of the Metropolitan District.

Plaza estaría dispuesta a separarse del cargo sin conflicto, pese a las palabras que el jefe de Estado habría tenido en su contra, durante una reunión con otros funcionarios, en la cual descalificó sus gestiones ante el TSJ y dijo a toda voz que le exigiría la dimisión.

La abogada del Estado había convocado a una conferencia de prensa el martes, a las 5 de la tarde, en la que haría un anuncio "grave" al país, pero la misma fue suspendida.

Fuentes del Alto Gobierno explicaron que el silencio de la procuradora fue acordado, luego de una solicitud que le hizo el jefe del despacho presidencial, general Carlos Martínez Mendoza, quien habría considerado inconveniente el encuentro de Marisol Plaza con los medios.

Las preocupaciones en el Alto Gobierno, por las eventuales declaraciones de la procuradora, se agravaron, pues éstas tendrían lugar paralelamente a la reunión que, por intermediación de Gaviria, realizarían el Gobierno y los alcaldes del Distrito Metropolitano.

Bloomberg.com has a report in English.

2002-11-18T18:17:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Stratfor's view: Analysts at Stratfor, a Texas-based provider of private intelligence analysis, believe that President Hugo Chávez is deliberately provoking violence, as a means of justifying a military takeover of the country.

With new opinion polls showing that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez would lose by a landslide any popular referendum on his continued stay in office, the government has set in motion a plan to force a violent confrontation with political foes, according to Stratfor sources in Caracas. The objective reportedly is to use the excuse of street violence between supporters and opponents of the regime in order to decree a state of exception and unleash military firepower to crush the opposition.

A state of exception would suspend all civil and political liberties indefinitely, and would enable the government to arrest anyone viewed as a threat to democracy and the rule of law. A state of exception also would end the internationally mediated negotiations currently under way between the Chavez regime and the political opposition over the timing of a popular referendum on whether Chavez should resign.

Stratfor's analysis is available from the conservative news forum FreeRepublic.com. Stratfor's analysis is available by subscription at Stratfor.com.

2002-11-18T17:37:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
His government "can't be blackmailed" (''no es chantajeable''), President Hugo Chávez told the First National Assembly of Bolivarian Students, accoring to a report published by El Universal.

He said that some sectors adverse to his government "are obsessed with taking Chávez out of the government saying that one must go to elections right now; well here there will not be elections right now and less because of the whim of a minority that does not want to accept the road that the majority took," he said. He indicated that elections will be held when suitable.

Dijo que algunos sectores adversos a su gobierno ''están obsesionados por sacar a Chávez del Gobierno diciendo que hay que ir a elecciones ya; pues aquí no habrá elecciones ya y menos por el capricho de una minoría que no quiere aceptar el camino que tomó la mayoría'', dijo. Indicó que las elecciones se realizarán cuando corresponda.

As always, Chávez treated his followers to a large dose of populist demagoguery class warefare rhetoric.

He asked "why does the coupist and fascist counterrevelolution want to pull down this government and this Constitution" and indicated that "the elites and counterrevolutionaries wanted to take out Chávez because they have the false idea that they will be able to come back to install themselves (in office). They are misteken, because even when Hugo Chávez disappears they will never return."

Se preguntó ''por qué la contrarrevolución golpista y fascista quiere derribar este Gobierno y esta Constitución'' y señaló que ''las élites contrarrevolucionarias quisieran sacar a Chávez porque tienen la falsa idea de que así volverían a instalarse. Están equivocados, porque aún cuando Hugo Chávez desapareciera más nunca ellos volverían''.

Unfortunately for Chávez, a large majority of Venezuelan's are not longer buying his divisive rhetoric, including, according to a poll noted in El Sur last Friday, a large majority of Venezuela' poorest citizens, who are those for whom Chávez claims to speak.

2002-11-18T08:59:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Update:

1. Metropolitan Caracas Mayor Alfredo Peña today asked the Supreme Court to render ineffective the national government decree taking over the Metropolitan Police, reports El Nacional. Peña also guaranteed security during a march in defense of the Metropolitan Police, to be held Wednesday.

2. A permanent commission of the National Assembly dealing with human rights and constitutional guarantees is holding an emergency meeting to review the takeover the Metropolitan Police, reports El Mundo. The meeting was called by Edgar Zambrano, a Democratic Action delegate.

"President Chávez says that the PM is politicized, but this situation is present in every military component, because his dream is to control the armed institution. The intervention in the PM is due to the aspiration to have absolute control violating the decentralization and the autonomy of the municipaities," indicated Zambrano.

“El presidente Chávez dice que la PM está politizada, pero esta situación se presenta en todo el componente militar, porque su sueño es controlar la institución armada. La intervención de la PM obedece a la aspiración de tener el control absoluto violentando la descentralización y la autonomía de los municipios”, señaló Zambrano.

2002-11-18T07:48:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Additional links: In addition to those linked below, several other news sources have items on the takeover of Caracas' Metropolitan Police, including, the New York Times, iafrica.com and the Miami Herald. From the Herald:

The president on Sunday described the police under Peña as "an armed spearhead of the opposition." The government says the police played a major role in April's failed coup, when the police and pro-Chávez activists fought a gun battle after a massive opposition demonstration was fired on. Nineteen people died.

According to the government, the police force has used firearms to suppress pro-Chávez demonstrations, leaving two people dead and dozens injured.

"We could wait no longer," Chávez said Sunday. ``The executive was obliged to act.''

Peña and his police chief, Commissioner Henry Vivas, however, who describe the attempted takeover as tantamount to a coup, refuse to recognize the authority of Gonzalo Sánchez, appointed Saturday by the Interior Ministry as police director. Sánchez was picked as a late stand-in after the government's first appointee failed to win over district chiefs.

In a phone conversation with Chávez, broadcast live on the president's weekly TV and radio show, Sánchez admitted to "some small problems" of control. He said military supervision would continue, "until the legality [of the measure] is recognized"'

2002-11-18T05:38:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Prelude to a "self-coup" ("autogolpe")? Forces loyal to President Hugo Chávez took over the Metropolitan Police over the weekend. The Financial Times has a report. Yahoo! News has photos of the anti-takeover demonstrations that followed at Caracas police stations, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here.

According to Yahoo! News - AP, control of the police force remained in doubt as of this morning, many members of the police having rejected the takeover.

Police Chief Henry Vivas, appointed by Pena, refused to step down, even after Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello named Gonzalo Sanchez Delgado as the new chief.

Speaking during his weekly radio program "Hello President," Chavez said the government ordered the takeover because disputes within the force had become "unbearable" and Pena had failed to resolve the situation.

The crisis raised concerns that police would not be able to guarantee security during the country's frequent political demonstrations.

The Democratic Coordinator movement, a coalition of opposition groups pushing for a referendum on Chavez' rule, condemned the takeover.

"We must tell (Chavez) that he can't intimidate us with armored personnel carriers. We must show that we will restore constitutionality in Venezuela," the group said in a statement.

Pena accused Chavez of trying to create chaos and ruin negotiations mediated by the Organization of American States so that the president could declare martial law.

An indicator of the government's true intentions is the identity of the newly designated police chief. As described in El Universal:

The second director general of the Metropolitan Police designated by the National Executive in less than 24 hours, retired commissioner Gonzalo Sánchez Delgado served as leader of the Bolivarian Circles in Caracas.

The ex-policeman, who possesses a degree in Public Relations, took an oath last August 15 as general coordinator of the Bolivarian Circles of Liberator, in the Patio de Los leones de la Alcaldia, in the presence of several members of the Comando Político de la Revolución and the Mayor Freddy Bernal.

The last executive activity of the ex-functionary in the Metropolitan police was to command the police zone Caricuao. There his subordinates charged him before superiors with conducting political harangues and offering them courses in communism. He sought to form Bolivarian Circles throughout the Metropolitan Police.

El segundo director general de la Policía Metropolitana designado por el Ejecutivo Nacional en menos de 24 horas, comisario jubilado Gonzalo Sánchez Delgado, se desempeña como jefe de los círculos bolivarianos en Caracas.

El ex policía, quien posee un curso de Relaciones Públicas, fue juramentado el pasado 15 de agosto como coordinador general de los círculos bolivarianos de Libertador, en el Patio de Los Leones de la Alcaldía, en presencia de algunos miembros del Comando Político de la Revolución y del alcalde Freddy Bernal.

La última actividad ejecutada por el ex funcionario en la PM fue comandar la zona policial de Caricuao. Allí sus subalternos lo denunciaron ante los superiores por realizar arengas políticas y ofrecerles cursos de comunismo. Pretendió formar círculos bolivarianos dentro de la PM.

Bloomberg.com reports that Carlos Ortega, leader of the Venezuela's largest labor union, the Confederation of Venezuelan Workers (CTV), says the organization will decide this week whether to strike.

Meanwhile, Organization of American States Secretary General César Gaviria returned to Caracas to facilitate continued dialog between the Chávez government and opposition. According to El Universal,

The strategy of opposition representatives at the negotiation table will be centered on not permitting the intervention in the PM to become the dominant subject today over the search for an electoral solution for the country.

La estrategia de los representantes de la oposición en la mesa de negociación estará centrada en no permitir que la intervención de la PM sea hoy el tema dominante por encima de la búsqueda de una salida electoral para el país.

Nevertheless, the paper says, leaders of the Democratic Coordinator provided Gavaria with a brief in opposition to Chavez's takeover the the police.

This is a major development. If Chávez succeeds in taking and maintaining control over the Metropolitan Police, he can be confident that he can employ force succssfully over much larger matters, including taking firm and final control of the military and being able to use armed units to put down civilian protest, with violence if necessary. If this partial, tentative autogolpe succeeds, dictatorship becomes a possibility. On the other hand, if Chávez can't force this issue, he can't force bigger ones either.

2002-11-16T06:08:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Question valid; signatures next: Venezuela's National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) has approved the question to be put before the voters respecting President Hugo Chávez's tenure in office, reports El Universal. The question is as follows:

Do you approve asking the President of the Republic citizen Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, to immediately and voluntarily resign from his office?

¿Está usted de acuerdo con solicitar al presidente de la República, ciudadano Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, que de manera inmediata renuncie voluntariamente a su cargo?

The commission noted that the question was in the form of a request that did not have the effect of ending Chávez's tenure in office. The commission also finished counting the signatures in favor of putting this question to referendum--2,056,470--and has begun verifying them

2002-11-15T12:32:00.000-08:00

U.S. AND LATIN AMERICA
Trade: Mary Anastasia O'Grady makes the case for a U.S. trade deal with Chile, in her "Americas" column in today's Wall Street Journal (sorry, no link). She says a trade deal is long overdue and very much in the interest of both countries--and Latin America as a whole.

But for the U.S. the reasons to complete the agreement go well beyond access to Chilean goods and markets. The U.S. desperately needs a win in Latin America. Free trade expansion is one of the few productive and morally defensible tools to advance U.S. interests in political and economic stabilization in a region that is rapidly falling apart.

Without a U.S.-Chile free trade agreement, Chilean modernization and openness would probably survive. But the rest of the region, which is already listing left toward renewed nationalist populism, could read the failure of the deal as a sign of U.S. arrogance and indifference...

Making good on its promise to let Chile into the U.s. free trade club is a necessary first step in salvaging U.S. leadership in the region. As it stands now Latins are more likely to complain about U.S. hypocrisy--be it on trade or narcotics use--than to defend American values, even though they instinctively prefer economic liberalism. Preaching open markets to poor countries while practicing protectionism in Washington has not only energized anti-American populists. It has hurt the advocates of economic freedom who are fighting the liberalization battle on the ground.

By any measure Chile has been badly treated by the U.S. It's strong rule of law, secure property-rights protection, impressive trade openness and stable democracy long ago qualified it as a free-trade partner with the U.S....

Chile may have been jilted but it did not stay home spilling tears over its fickle suitor. Instead it went ahead with its own free trade agenda, while keeping open the possibility of a U.S. deal. This has turned out to be a brilliant strategy and one that would surely serve another nations in Latin America.

O'Grady concludes saying that Chilean democracy should be treated with the respect it deserves. Absolutely.

2002-11-15T10:44:00.000-08:00

ARGENTINA
Default II: As noted yesterday, Argentina has defaulted on repayment of the principal of a loan from the World Bank. According to the Economist,

This is a high-risk strategy for a country still reeling from the catastrophic economic collapse it experienced at the turn of the year. Argentina has now, in effect, cut itself off from its last source of outside financing. The government defaulted on its debts to the private sector last December—at around $140 billion, that made it the biggest default in history. IMF disbursements have also been suspended for ten months as negotiations on a new IMF programme have dragged on.

Will this second default make negotiations with the IMF more difficult? Not necessarily, says the magazine:

And yet the Fund’s response to the default announcement was intriguing. It did not comment directly on Argentina’s decision. Instead, a statement said that progress had been made in the latest round of negotiations between Argentina and the IMF, but that further issues needed to be resolved. It also referred to the need to seek political consensus for what had already been agreed.

But in a sign that the IMF wants to give Argentina some breathing space, the statement also revealed that a deadline of November 22nd for payments due to the Fund would be extended. This apparently conciliatory gesture suggests that the IMF wants to reach a deal if at all possible.

In these elaborately choreographed negotiations, it is not just the Argentines who have much at stake. Even for an organisation like the IMF, used to playing the role of international scapegoat, the deadlock with Argentina is uncomfortable. It cannot afford to pour more money down a black hole: extending a loan without having properly sown up a reform programme would be politically disastrous for the IMF. Letting Argentina go further along the road to full-scale default with the multilateral institutions would not be much better.

In fact, it is beginning to appear as if Argentine authorities believe they have upper hand in their negotiations with the IMF. The reason for their newfound confidence is the existence of indications that the country's economic decline has been halted, if not yet reversed. A report by the Centro de Investigaciones en Finanzas of the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT), summarized in La Nacion, measures the turnaround. According to the center, an index of leading indicators and a consumer confidence index both indicate that the country's four-year-long recession has ended.

According to these studies, in October, after five months of increases in anticipated economic activity, a 94.5 per cent probability of breaking the tendency to recession is registered.

Según esa casa de estudios, en octubre, tras cinco meses de subas en el anticipador de actividad económica, se registró un 94,5 por ciento de probabilidades de quiebre de la tendencia recesiva.

However, the studies also indicate that the level of economic activity, though apparently bottoming out, is well below the level recorded last year.

President Eduardo Duhalde and his allies need to restrain their joy. Argentina's people undoubtedly feel relieved that economic decline has ceased--for now. But unless Argentines begin to see real improvement, their relief will quickly be replaced with concern and anger. Renewed growth is not inevitable, even after a decline on the scale of Argentina's. Also possible is that Argentina has only achieved stability at a much lower economic level. If Argentina is to grow, much less to realize its potential, it needs to reform, especially to protect property and eliminate arbitrary government decision-making, which has serveed only the interests of the political class and politically connected. Debt repudiation is not a good start.

2002-11-15T09:20:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
New poll: Today's El Universal has the results of a new Datanálisis poll of Venezuelans. The results of the poll are not good for President Hugo Chávez.

According to the poll:

* By more than two-to-one, Venezuelans view negatively President Hugo Chávez's performance in office.

* If, as the opposition wants, a consultative referendum is held on the question of whether Hugo Chávez ought to continue as President or leave the Miraflores Palace, voters would vote for his departure by a 66.1 to 33.9 per cent margin.

* If elections were held tomorrow, the poll asks, and the candidates were Hugo Chávez and Enrique Mendoza, Chávez would lose to Mendoza, by 46.4 to 29.6 per cent, with 18.4 per cent voting for neither and undecided. Mendoza is the governor of the state of Miranda and leader in the Primero Justicia party. The difference between the two-thirds who would vote Chávez out and the less than half who would vote Mendoza in is a measure of Venezuelans' continuing alienation from the country's entire leadership strata.

* Venezuelans are also unhappy with the performance of other public officials, according to the poll. Majorities ranging from 55 per cent to 64 per cent support the resignation of National Assembly, Electoral Commission, Supreme Court and Attorney General, among others.

* Although Chávez is most strongly supported by the poorest elements in the Venezualan population, he no longer has majority support in any of the five segments (estratos) of the population into which respondents are divided. In the upper- and middle-income groupings (Estratos A,B, and C) Chávez has about 20 per cent support. In Estrato D, he has 31 per cent support, and in Estrato E, those "who find themselves in a condition of extremity" ("la que se encuentra en estado extremo"), he is supported by 39 per cent.

* The country's increasing polarization--though deliberately fostered by Chávez--appears to favor the opposition. Fully 55 per cent of respondents can be classified as radical anti-Chávez (Antichavismo radical); 19 per cent can be classified as radical pro-Chávez (Chavismo radical). Radical (as opposed to moderate) opponents of Chávez are "those that are disposed to demonstrate and march, including paralizing economic activity, as means of pressing for the departure of Chávez from his chair in Miraflores" ("aquellos que están dispuestos a manifestar y marchar, e incluso paralizar sus actividades económicas como medidas de presión por la salida de Chávez de la silla de Miraflores").Luis Vicente León, director of Datanálisis, believes the results of his company's poll point toward the outcome of the current Venezuelan struggle:

León maintaines that the end of the story is already written, "although the road will not be easy. Chávez will end by leaving, with little room for doubt, since with such rejection, it is impossible to perpetuate a stay in power."

León sostiene que el final de la historia ya está escrito, "aunque el camino no será fácil. Chávez terminará saliendo, sin lugar a dudas, pues con tal rechazo, es imposible perpetuar una permanencia en el poder".

El Universal has two charts summarizing the poll's most important results, here and here.

2002-11-14T12:45:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Oil employees' demonstrating: Employees of the Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), demonstrating against the company's politicization, have emerged as key players in Venezuela's continuing political drama, says the Chicago Tribune's foreign correspondent Gary Marx.

So far, the protests at Petroleos de Venezuela, known by its Spanish acronym PDVSA, remain limited to a small number of white-collar workers.

But the rumblings at PDVSA could spell big trouble for Chavez if they spread to the oil fields that provide 80 percent of Venezuela's export earnings. A strike by the company's management in mid-April sparked last spring's failed coup against Chavez.

"PDVSA is a critical factor in terms of what happens to Chavez," said Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think tank. "If PDVSA joins the strike, that could signal a rapid deterioration of the situation. Chavez relies on oil to sustain himself."

2002-11-14T12:31:00.000-08:00

ARGENTINA
Default: Argentina has defaulted on an $805 million World Bank loan repayment, reports Bloomberg.com. The government chose to default rather than reduce its foreign currency reserves.

2002-11-14T12:08:00.000-08:00

COLOMBIA
Justice targets...II: Not everyone is pleased that the U.S. Justice Department has begun indicting members of Colombia's illegal armies, reports El Tiempo. Who's not happy? The usual suspects:

"They are closing all the doors of negotiation," says León Valencia, political analyst and ex-militant of the ELN. "It is converting the process more into one of judging the guerilla and it is reducing the space for politics," he added.

"Están cerrando todas las puertas de negociación", dijo León Valencia, analista político y ex militante del Eln. "Se está convirtiendo en un proceso más de judicialización de la guerrilla y se le quita espacio a lo político", añadió.

The National Liberation Army of Colombia (Ejército de Liberación Nacional de Colombia) is one of three illegal armies infesting Colombia.

For Carlos Lozano, director of the leftwing weekly Voice, the announcement of yesterday, "rarifies the internal political climate, shows the pressure of the U.S. toward a solution by war and not by peace."

Para Carlos Lozano, director del semanario de izquierda Voz, el anuncio de ayer, "enrarece el clima político interno, se muestra la presión de E.U. para que haya una salida de guerra y no de paz".

2002-11-14T08:25:00.000-08:00

ARGENTINA
Analysis, en inglés:

1. The Economist has a review of the current status of Argentina's politics. The article focuses on the internal troubles of the Partido Justicialista, the Peronist party.

2. The World Press Review, of September 17, has a (now slightly dated) review of Argentina's upcoming presidential election.

3. Yahoo! News - AP has a profile of candidate Adolfo Rodriguez Saa, the populist Peronist who was president for a week last December, just long enough default on Argentina's international debt, to the cheers of the National Assembly. According to the article, a recent poll published, in La Nacion shows Rodriguez Saa seading with 18 per cent, followed by former President Carlos Menem at 16 per cent. Four others candidates trailed well behind.

2002-11-14T07:57:00.000-08:00

COLOMBIA
Bishop kidnapped II: The kidnapped Bishop of the City of Zipaquirá "is not casheable" ("no es canjeable"), the Colombian Catholic Church has decided, according to El Tiempo.

"The opinion of the episcopacy, not only with respect to the Bishop of Zipaquirá, but with all the kidnapped, is that life and liberty cannot be bought, nor sold and as a result cannot be the subject of exchange or negotiation. On the contrary, they must be respected and defended," he (spokesman Iván Marín) said.

"La opinión del Episcopado, no solo con respecto al obispo de Zipaquirá, sino con todos los secuestrados, es que la vida y la libertad ni se compra, ni se vende y por consiguiente ni se cambia, ni se negocia. Por el contrario, se respetan y se defienden", dijo.

El Tiempo has a photo of a demostration demanding the bishop's release, here.

2002-11-14T07:14:00.000-08:00

COLOMBIA
U.S. justice targets Colombian combatants: The United States Justice Department has indicted Colombian guerilla leader Jorge Briceúo SuÍrez on charges of drug trafficking and kidnapping. Briceño Suárez (El Tiempo has a photo of him, here) is the No.2 man in the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. The primary charge against him, reports El Tiempo, is conspiracy to kidnap two Americans Jeff Shaffer and Earl Goen, who worked in the Venezuelan oil industry. He is also charged with conspiring to smuggle cocaine into the United States.

In the view of the Miami Herald,

The charges marked the latest sign that the Bush administration is extending the reach of U.S. justice to combat three outlaw groups in the embattled South American nation branded by Washington as terrorist organizations.

U.S. prosecutors recently broke up an arms-for-cocaine deal organized by Colombia's right-wing paramilitary army (the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia, or AUC) and indicted members of a kidnapping ring. Earlier indictments have targeted other left-wing guerrillas, arms merchants and the leader of the AUC.

The barrage of U.S. charges marks a significant change in Colombian policy, the Herald says:

The barrage of recent U.S. indictments coincides with dramatic shifts in Colombia on the policy of sending suspected criminals, once captured, to the United States for trial.

A decade ago, angry drug barons mounted a bombing campaign to avoid U.S. jails. Their slogan: ``Better a grave in Colombia than a jail in the U.S.''

From the late 1980s until 1997, Colombia's Constitution banned extraditions. But since 1999, Colombians -- weary of lawlessness and losing faith in their own justice system -- have sent at least 64 suspected criminals to stand trial in the United States.

The cooperation coincides with an evolving view in the Bush administration that many of Colombia's woes are the result of lawlessness -- and can be dealt with through prosecutions.

''They are developing some degree of a policy that goes toward saying that much of this violence is really criminal,'' said Phillip McLean, a former U.S. diplomat in Colombia and now a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Key to the success of this strategy is evenhandedness, the willingness to pursue members all three illegal armies, without regard to stated ideology. And as always, a solution may raise new problems, in this case creating a precedent for the indictment of Americans in foreign courts.

According to a second report in El Tiempo the government intends to extradite Briceño Suárez to the U.S., upon his capture.

2002-11-13T16:55:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Update:

1. The army is now patroling the streets of Caracas in conjunction with loca police, reports El Universal. The order is controversial, El Nacional reports. The paper quotes the mayor of Baruta, Henrique Capriles Radonsky, to the effect that such joint patrols are appropriate only in case of the activation of Plan Ávila, the plan to protect government buildings against insurrection. It was President Hugo Chávez's activation of Plan Ávila that led to the military rebellion in April. Other mayors agreed. The mayor El Hatillo, Alfredo Catalán, said

he will not recognize these instructions since "we would only coordinate patrolling with the military in case of a declaration of a state of exception." Catalán affirmed that several soldiers of the army already "visited" the headquarters of the Hatillo police.

desconocerá estas instrucciones pues "solo coordinaríamos un patrullaje con militares en caso de declararse un estado de excepción". Catalán aseguró que varios efectivos del Ejército ya "visitaron" la sede de PoliHatillo.

The mayor of Chacao, Leopoldo López, charged that the joint patrolling was an attempt by the national government to militarize the city "in frank violation of the Constitution and without any justification" ("en franca violación a la Constitución y sin justificación alguna").

Yahoo! News has a photo, here.

2. Metropolitan Caracas Mayor Alfredo Peña announced that he will be taking legal action against President Hugo Chávez, who Peña believes is responsible for attacks by Bolivarian Circles (see below). According to El Universal, Peña

Indicated that the national leader pressed the violent groups to attack the Metropolitan Mayor's office and loaned the facilities of the Miraflores Palace (the seat of government) for their meetings.

"I am going to demand civilly that he respond for these damages and criminally for the bloody acts that were produced there," he said in a Unión Radio interview.

Señaló que el mandatario nacional insta a los grupos violentos a atacar la Alcaldía Metropolitana y presta las instalaciones del Palacio de Miraflores para sus reuniones.

"Yo lo voy a demandar civilmente para que responda por esos daños y penalmente por los hechos de sangre que allí se produjeron", dijo en entrevista a Unión Radio.

3. Meanwhile, the protest in the Plaza Francia de Altamira continues. High-ranking officers of the military have been camped there in what they call "legitimate disobedience" against the Chávez government. The officers entered the plaze in the wake of the most recent nationwide lockout/strike, October 21. El Nacional has a report.

4. Also continuing are protests by employees of the state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA). However, according to El Universal's report, leaders of the protest say oil company workers will not necessarily join the next national lockout/strike.

"We are not going to join a stoppage because others announced it. If they carry us to the precipice, then it will be discussed among the workers, as citizens, but we are not going to yield to an announcement because there (Altamira) they say to," commented (Juan) Fernández (president of the oil workers organization).

"No nos vamos a sumar a un paro porque otros lo anuncien. Si nos llevan al precipicio, pues se discutirá entre los trabajadores, como ciudadanos, pero no nos vamos a plegar a un anuncio porque allá (Altamira) lo digan", comentó Fernández.

Yahoo! News - AP has an English language update on the situation in Venezuela.

2002-11-13T11:02:00.000-08:00

ARGENTINA
Deal?: Argentine officials say an agreement with the International Monetary Fund may be near. According to La Nacion:

On his arrival at the headquarters of the IMF, the finance secretary, Guillermo Nielson, declared to reporters that "there are still matters pending" in order to arrive at an accord with the international organisation, and indicated that "one can see the glass as half empty or half full; we see it half full.

Al llegar a la sede del FMI, el secretario de Finanzas, Guillermo Nielsen, declaró a los periodistas que "aún hay asuntos pendientes" para llegar a un acuerdo con el organismo internacional, y señaló que "se puede ver el vaso medio vacío o medio lleno; nosotros lo vemos medio lleno".

They have been saying the same thing since January. Now, however, default on an IMF loan is imminent and Argentine officials have said they will not make a payment with reserves. So, the question is: who fears default more, Argentina or the IMF?

Between now and the end of next year, $18 billion in international lending agency loan repayments are due.

2002-11-13T07:59:00.000-08:00

COLOMBIA
Bishop kidnapped: Monsignor Jorge Enrique Jiménez, bishop of the Colombian city of Zipaquirá and president of the Latin American conference of bishops, has been kidnapped, apparently by communist guerillas of the FARC. El Tiempo reports that the army is searching for Jiménez and that a reward of 100 million pesos ($38,000) has been offered for information leading to his return. The kidnapping has been condemned worldwide. Reuters has an English-language report.

2002-11-12T18:27:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Lina Ron: Yahoo! News has a photo of the infamous (but attractive) Bolivarian street-gang leader Lina Ron, here.

Ron's activties have been noted in El Sur,here and here.

2002-11-12T18:21:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Oil company employees' demonstrate: Conflict seems to be stirring anew at the state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA). The issue is a decision by company officials to permit workers who support Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez to use the company's videoconferencing facilities to organize and hold meetings. Other workers are demonstrating for the removal of Chávez crony Gustavo Pérez Issa, director of protection, control and loss. According to El Universal, the demonstrators "evoke the images of the beginning of the conflict of March-April in the state oil company" ("evocan las imágenes de los inicios del conflicto de marzo-abril en la estatal petrolera"). PDVSA workers and managers have played little part subsequent anti-Chávez protests, because many of the specific demands they made at the time were met.

Yahoo! News has one photo from the oil workers protest, here.

2002-11-12T17:40:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Bolivarian Circles run riot: One person was killed and 28 hurt when rioters clashed with the Metropolitan Police and the National Guard in Caracas. El Nacional and El Universal have reports.

According to El Universal pro-Chávez demonstrators closed off access to the offices of Metropolitan Caracas Mayor Alfredo Peña (a Chávez opponent). Demonstrators threw rocks and bottles at police, who responded with tear gas. (El Nacional's report indicates that 13 of the injured had bullet wounds.) The demonstration began in the morning and continued throughout the day, seemingly rising at different points in the center of the city, which suggests coordination.

One bright spot (as reported in Bloomberg.com: The OAS's man on the scene, César Gaviria, in Caracas to mediate betweent he government and opposition, seems to have an idea of the importance of what is going on.

The rioting poses a new obstacle to efforts by Cesar Gaviria, secretary-general of the Organization of American States, to broker talks to end the political stalemate that began with an attempted coup against Chavez in April. Talks between the government and opposition began Friday and resumed this afternoon.

"What happens outside the negotiations affects the negotiations," Gaviria said at a press conference. He called on the government to investigate the disturbances, while warning that an atmosphere of "impunity" was being sowed by the failure to stop violent confrontations.

Indeed, creating an "atmosphere of 'impunity'" is one thing those behind the Bolivarian attackers intended. The other is to isolate the Metropolitan Police.

Yahoo! News has photos, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

2002-11-07T13:03:00.000-08:00

ARGENTINA
To pay or not to pay...: It is nearly a year since former President (for two weeks) Adolfo Rodríguez Saa defaulted on private foreign debt. Ever since, the government of President Eduardo Duhalde and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been negotiating for IMF aid. Always, the deal has been just about a month away.

Pending a deal that would both roll over old IMF and World Bank loans and provide new credits, Argentina has used reserves to keep current with IMF and World Bank loans. Now, with new assistance predicated on reforms the government is unable to accept, the government is beginning to question the value of a deal that comes with strings but no new money, reports the Wall Street Journal (International section, no link).

It is unclear to many Argentines what they have to gain from an IMF deal that doesn't include new money. More than half the population now lives in poverty, and many households are scraping by on about $43 a month administered by theDuhalde government. "For Argentina, (defaulting on multilateral loans) ios not the end of the world," said Mr. (Sergio) Berensztein, the political-science professor>

2002-11-07T07:36:00.000-08:00

VENEZUELA
Referendum battle: Opposition leaders have obtained two million signatures to force a referendum on the continued tenure of President Hugo Chávez. He and his supporters appear unlikely to quietly accept an electoral test, however.

On Monday, reports Yahoo News! AP, rock-throwing pro-Chávez demonstrators attempted to prevent an opposition march to the national elections council offices to deliver their petitions. Police used tear gas to beat back the chavista demonstrators who "detonated powerful fireworks," built and set fire to roadblocks and tried to highjack a bus to prevent the opposition marchers from reaching their goal. While the vice president, Jose Vicente Rangel denounced the pro-Chávez rioting, the government made no attempt to reinforce the metropolitan police with national guard troops. A Wednesday Fox News' report on the mele says at least 17 people were hurt by rubber bullets and another 60 injured by rocks or tear gas. The rioters were unable to prevent delivery of the petition, which is now being examined by the electoral commission.

Photos, from Yahoo! News, are here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

As his supporters are mobilizing hit the streets, Chávez is going to court. According to BBC News, Chávez has asked Venezuela's supreme court to remove the members of the national electoral council. Such a decision would, if nothing else, delay a referendum, but preventing verification of the opposition petition and organization of a referendum while the council was re-organized.